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71.
Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.  相似文献   
72.
Habitat-forming, ecosystem engineer species are common in most marine systems. Still, much uncertainty exists about how individual and population-level traits of these species contribute to ecosystem processes and how engineering species jointly affect biodiversity. In this manipulative field experiment, we examined how biodiversity in marginal blue mussel beds is affected by blue mussel (1) body size, density and patch context and (2) presence of fucoid and algal structures. In the study area, bladder-wrack (Fucus vesiculosus), filamentous algae and blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) coexist at shallow depths in a variety of patch configurations and offer complex habitats with a high variability of resources. We hypothesized that complexity in terms of mussel bed structure and algal presence determines species composition and abundance. Results from the experiment were compared with macrofaunal communities found in natural populations of both engineering species. Results show that the physical structure and blue mussel patch context are important determinants for species composition and abundance. Results further show that the presence of algal structures positively affects diversity in blue mussel habitats due to increased surface availability and complexity that these algae offer. This study shows that blue mussel beds at the very margin of their distribution have an indisputable function for promoting and maintaining biodiversity and suggest that facilitative effects of habitat-modifying species are important on Baltic Sea rocky shores with fundamental importance to community structure.  相似文献   
73.
Comparison of forest protection between regions in Europe is extremely difficult, because there is such wide variation of strategies, procedures and constraints; the way forests have been used historically and their present closeness to nature also varies, and furthermore so does the definition of what constitutes a forest. For the European Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) in 2003, forest protection has been harmonised into three categories for the sake of comparison: protection to safeguard biodiversity, protection of landscape and specific natural features, and protective forest functions.There is no single, uniform and universal model and no internationally agreed target with respect to the percentage of forests which should be protected. What is more important than a fixed percentage level of forested area (e.g. 5 or 10%) is that the protection network should be biogeographically and ecologically representative and accordingly distributed on a regional basis. Long-term practical experience and research have proved that conservation of different species of organisms can be assured by appropriate silvicultural management of multifunctional production forests. Consequently, the focus of debate in Europe appears to shift more and more from total protection in segregated areas to 'precision protection' and to combining protection and timber production in the holistic, integrated concept of modern management of forest areas.Advances in regional ecological planning and the growing adoption of naturalistic forest management practices have slowed the decline of the biological diversity in the multifunctional production forests. However, this fact is not yet widely and sufficiently acknowledged and appreciated. There is consequently a political and scientific need for continued study of the effects of naturalistic silvicultural management on the biodiversity of forests. Information from such research is crucially needed before new and additional protection networks and schemes are set up on a large-scale. Protection by voluntary contracts between parties is a workable model concept for European forestry based on private forest ownership. In small private forests, patches of forest worth protecting are often small and located within production forests.Forest certification can contribute to the efforts of maintaining biodiversity in multifunctional production forests and offers an instrument of independently monitoring and verifying that forests are managed according to the agreed criteria. Forest certification is not an alternative or a means of increasing forest protection, because as a voluntary process it cannot guarantee the permanence of protected areas or deal with issues of finance and compensation.  相似文献   
74.
The springtime methane (CH4) emission from a small, eutrophied boreal lake was assessed during the winter ice-cover by measurement of gas ebullition and CH4 accumulation in the water column in association with the development of oxygen depletion after ice formation. The winter CH4 production was estimated to result in a loss of 3.6-7.9 g CH4 m(-2) from the lake to the atmosphere during the short period of ice melt. This could account for 22-48% of the annual CH4 emission from the pelagic zone of the lake. The contribution of winter to the annual CH4 release can be similar or even higher in seasonally ice-covered northern aquatic ecosystems than in northern terrestrial wetlands, thus winter must be considered in any studies into the aquatic CH4 emissions. The trophic state and wintertime oxygen conditions, linked to the changes in land-use in the catchments and climate, are important factors controlling the springtime lake CH4 emissions.  相似文献   
75.
Integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into other policies is considered to be a precondition for effective climate policies. This paper explores the role of mass media coverage as a potential obstacle or enhancing factor in relation to this mainstreaming of climate policies. The paper presents a quantitative content analysis of the national-level press coverage of climate change from 1990 to 2010, focusing on Finland. The empirical results indicate four major phases of Finnish media coverage of climate change: a definition phase before the Kyoto meeting in 1997, a maturation phase after the Kyoto meeting, climate hype in 2006–2008, and a phase of levelling off that started in late 2008. The results suggest that climate issues have widely permeated various fields of newspaper coverage. This broad-based debate may create and sustain a public agenda potentially favourable to attempts to bring climate policies into the mainstream of other policy domains. However, it also may open doors for unexpected initiatives by various activists and lobbyists that employ climate concern as a tool to advance other interests. The role of mass media has received little attention in studies focusing on the mainstreaming of climate policies. This paper highlights the importance of taking media coverage into account as a key factor in the formulation and implementation of environmental policies aimed at broad-based actions.  相似文献   
76.
77.
We studied whether long-term metal exposure has affected life history traits, population growth patterns and genetic diversity of the asexual enchytraeid worm Cognettia sphagnetorum (Vejd.). Enchytraeids from metal contaminated and uncontaminated forest soil were compared by growing them individually in the laboratory and by following their population development in patchily Cu contaminated microcosms. Genetic differences between the two native populations were studied using allozyme electrophoresis. Individuals from the contaminated site had slower growth rate and they produced fewer fragments of larger size when compared to individuals from the uncontaminated site. In patchily Cu contaminated microcosms, C. sphagnetorum from the contaminated site had a slower population growth rate. Most alleles were shared by the two native populations, but there was greater diversity and more unique genotypes in the population living in the uncontaminated site. Overall, long-term exposure to metals has induced only slight changes in life history properties and clonal diversity of C. sphagnetorum.  相似文献   
78.
79.
We have examined how some major catchment disturbances may affect the aquatic greenhouse gas fluxes in the boreal zone, using gas flux data from studies made in 1994-1999 in the pelagic regions of seven lakes and two reservoirs in Finland. The highest pelagic seasonal average methane (CH(4)) emissions were up to 12 mmol x m(-2) x d(-1) from eutrophied lakes with agricultural catchments. Nutrient loading increases autochthonous primary production in lakes, promoting oxygen consumption and anaerobic decomposition in the sediments and this can lead to increased CH(4) release from lakes to the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide (CO(2)) fluxes were higher from reservoirs and lakes whose catchment areas were rich in peatlands or managed forests, and from eutrophied lakes in comparison to oligotrophic and mesotrophic sites. However, all these sites were net sources of CO(2) to the atmosphere. The pelagic CH(4) emissions were generally lower than those from the littoral zone. The fluxes of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were negligible in the pelagic regions, apparently due to low nitrate inputs and/or low nitrification activity. However, the littoral zone, acting as a buffer for leached nitrogen, did release N(2)O. Anthropogenic disturbances of boreal lakes, such as increasing eutrophication, can change the aquatic greenhouse gas balance, but also the gas exchange in the littoral zone should be included in any assessment of the overall effect. It seems that autochthonous and allochthonous carbon sources, which contribute to the CH(4) and CO(2) production in lakes, also have importance in the greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs.  相似文献   
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