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691.
E. Conrad Lamon Song S. Qian Daniel D. Richter 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(5):1219-1229
ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration. 相似文献
692.
Donna M. Cosgrove Gary S. Johnson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(6):1469-1482
ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States. 相似文献
693.
Ryan C. Schwartz Peter J. Deadman Daniel J. Scott Linda D. Mortsch 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(3):647-662
ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities. 相似文献
694.
695.
We draw on the economic, corporate governance, and family business literatures to explain why the effects of family on family firms makes this governance form theoretically distinct from those of public and private non‐family firms. Our thesis is that parental altruism, when combined with private ownership and owner‐management, influences the ability of the firm's owner‐manager to exercise self‐control, which, in turn, can expose some family firms to conflicts rooted in the agency threats of moral hazard, hold‐up, and adverse selection. We then discuss why some other family firms are able to minimize these dark side threats and thereby attain altruism's brighter side. Finally, we discuss how altruism's influence changes over time as ownership becomes dispersed among family members and across generations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
696.
Darren C. Treadway Wayne A. Hochwarter Charles J. Kacmar Gerald R. Ferris 《组织行为杂志》2005,26(3):229-245
The current study used Mintzberg's (1983) conceptualization of political will and political skill to evaluate the predictors and consequences of political behavior at work. As elements of political will, we hypothesized that need for achievement and intrinsic motivation would predict the use of political behavior at work. Furthermore, we argued that political skill would moderate the relationship between political behavior and emotional labor. Data gathered from employees (N = 193) representing a wide array of organizations substantiated the proposed relationships. Specifically, need for achievement and intrinsic motivation were positively associated with political behavior. In turn, those opting to employ political behavior at work experienced a higher degree of emotional labor, but this relationship was found to operate differently at low and high levels of political skill. Specifically, emotional labor was a consequence of political behavior for those low in political skill, but emotional labor reactions from political behavior were neutralized for individuals high in political skill. Implications of these results, strengths and limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
697.
In this second counterpoint article, we refute the claims of Landy, Locke, and Conte, and make the more specific case for our perspective, which is that ability‐based models of emotional intelligence have value to add in the domain of organizational psychology. In this article, we address remaining issues, such as general concerns about the tenor and tone of the debates on this topic, a tendency for detractors to collapse across emotional intelligence models when reviewing the evidence and making judgments, and subsequent penchant to thereby discount all models, including the ability‐based one, as lacking validity. We specifically refute the following three claims from our critics with the most recent empirically based evidence: (1) emotional intelligence is dominated by opportunistic ‘academics‐turned‐consultants’ who have amassed much fame and fortune based on a concept that is shabby science at best; (2) the measurement of emotional intelligence is grounded in unstable, psychometrically flawed instruments, which have not demonstrated appropriate discriminant and predictive validity to warrant/justify their use; and (3) there is weak empirical evidence that emotional intelligence is related to anything of importance in organizations. We thus end with an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the role of emotional intelligence in organizational and social behavior. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
698.
Marc S. Mentzer 《组织行为杂志》2005,26(8):993-997
Organizational downsizing is often counterproductive and applied irrespective of past financial performance. The popularity of this tactic leads to the question of whether an executive's propensity to downsize is linked to characteristics such as uncertainty avoidance and risk tolerance, which can be examined at either an individual or societal level. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
699.
700.
Rai S. Kookana Raymond L. Correll Rosalind B. Miller 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2005,5(1-2):45-65
Pesticide users, natural resource managers, regulators, government agencies and many others are concerned about the off-site
impact of pesticides on the environment. Systematic methods of the assessment of potential risk of pesticides to environmental
components can serve as valuable tools in decision making and policy formulation. Simple risk indicators have been developed
which cover a range of scenarios such as toxicity to organisms, health of farm workers, consumer health, and residues in harvested
produce. The authors have developed a software package named Pesticide Impact Rating Index (PIRI) that outputs an improved
pesticide risk indicator for water quality. PIRI is a standalone, user-friendly, platform-independent program. It can be used
to (i) rank pesticides in terms of their relative pollution potential to groundwater or surface water, and (ii) to compare
different land uses in a catchment or at a regional scale in terms of their relative impact on water quality. It is based
on pesticides use; the pathway through which the pesticides are released to the water resources (drift, runoff, erosion, leaching)
and the value of the water resources threatened. Each component is quantified using pesticide characteristics (including toxicity
to organisms at different trophic levels, i.e. fish, daphnia, algae, etc.), environmental and site conditions (e.g. organic
carbon content of soil, water input, slope of land, soil loss, recharge rate, depth of water table, etc.). This paper describes
two case studies of the application of PIRI in Australia. The comparison of the risk assessment by PIRI on these revealed
that PIRI correctly estimated the pollution potential of pesticides in greater than 80% of cases. A GIS version of PIRI is
described in a companion paper in this volume.
An erratum to this article is available at . 相似文献