Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year-round residents or long-distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements.     

Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Environmental and production consequences of using alum-amended poultry litter as a nutrient source for corn

Field trials were established to compare alum-treated poultry litter (ATPL), normal poultry litter (NPL), and triple superphosphate (TSP) as fertilizer sources for corn (Zea mays L.) when applied at rates based on current litter management strategies in Virginia. Trials were established in the Costal Plain and Piedmont physiographic regions near Painter and Orange, VA, respectively. Nitrogen-based applications of ATPL or NPL applied at rates estimated to supply 173 kg of plant-available nitrogen (PAN) ha(-1) resulted in significantly lower grain yields than treatments receiving commercial fertilizer at the same rate in 2000 and 2001 at Painter. These decreases in grain yield at the N-based application rates were attributed to inadequate N availability, resulting from overestimates of PAN as demonstrated by tissue N concentrations. However, at Orange no treatment effects on grain yield were observed. Applications of ATPL did not affect Al concentrations in corn ear-leaves at either location. Exchangeable soil Al concentrations were most elevated in treatments receiving only NH4NO3 as an N source. At N-based application rates, the ATPL resulted in lower Mehlich 1-extractable P (M1-P) and water-extractable soil phosphorus (H2O-P) concentrations compared to the application of NPL. A portion of this reduction could be attributed to lower rates of P applied in the N-based ATPL treatments. Runoff collected from treatments which received ATPL 2 d before conducting rainfall simulations contained 61 to 71% less dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) than treatments receiving NPL. These results show that ATPL may be used as a nutrient source for corn production without significant management alterations. Alum-treated poultry litter can also reduce the environmental impact of litter applications, primarily through minimizing the P status of soils receiving long-term applications of litter and reductions in runoff DRP losses shortly after application.     

Soil amendments, plant age, and intercropping impact p,p'-DDE bioavailability to Cucurbita pepo

Field experiments were conducted to optimize the phytoextraction of weathered p,p'-DDE (p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene) by Cucurbita subspecies. The effects of two soil amendments, mycorrhizae or a biosurfactant, on p,p'-DDE accumulation was determined. Also, p,p'-DDE uptake was assessed during plant growth (12, 26, 38, and 62 d), and cultivars that accumulate weathered p,p'-DDE were intercropped with cultivars known not to have that ability. Cucurbita pepo L. ssp. pepo accumulated large amounts of the contaminant, having stem bioconcentration factors, amounts of p,p'-DDE translocated, and contaminant phytoextraction that were 14, 9.9, and 5.0 times greater than C. pepo L. ssp. ovifera (L.) D.S. Decker, respectively. During 62 d, the stem BCF (bioconcentration factor) for p,p'-DDE in subspecies pepo remained constant and the total amount of contaminant accumulated was correlated with plant biomass (r(2) = 0.86). For subspecies ovifera, the stem BCF was highest at 12 d (1.5) but decreased to 0.39 by 62 d, and p,p'-DDE removal was not correlated with plant biomass. Mycorrhizal inoculation increased p,p'-DDE accumulation by both subspecies by an average 4.4 times. For subspecies pepo, mycorrhizae increased the percentage of contaminant extracted from 0.72 to 2.1%. Biosurfactant amendment also enhanced contaminant accumulation by both subspecies, although treatment reduced subspecies ovifera biomass by 60%. The biosurfactant had no effect on the biomass of subspecies pepo, increased the average contaminant concentration by 3.6-fold, and doubled the overall amount of p,p'-DDE removed from the soil. Soil amendments that enhance the mobility of weathered persistent organic pollutants will significantly increase the amount of contaminant phytoextraction by Cucurbita pepo.     

Evaluation of geometrically personalized THUMS pedestrian model response against sedan–pedestrian PMHS impact test data

Objective: Evaluating the biofidelity of pedestrian finite element models (PFEM) using postmortem human subjects (PMHS) is a challenge because differences in anthropometry between PMHS and PFEM could limit a model's capability to accurately capture cadaveric responses. Geometrical personalization via morphing can modify the PFEM geometry to match the specific PMHS anthropometry, which could alleviate this issue. In this study, the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) PFEM (Ver 4.01) was compared to the cadaveric response in vehicle–pedestrian impacts using geometrically personalized models.

Methods: The AM50 THUMS PFEM was used as the baseline model, and 2 morphed PFEM were created to the anthropometric specifications of 2 obese PMHS used in a previous pedestrian impact study with a mid-size sedan. The same measurements as those obtained during the PMHS tests were calculated from the simulations (kinematics, accelerations, strains), and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation (correlation and analysis, CORA) were established to compare the response of the models to the experiments. Injury outcomes were predicted deterministically (through strain-based threshold) and probabilistically (with injury risk functions) and compared with the injuries reported in the necropsy.

Results: The baseline model could not accurately capture all aspects of the PMHS kinematics, strain, and injury risks, whereas the morphed models reproduced biofidelic response in terms of trajectory (CORA score = 0.927 ± 0.092), velocities (0.975 ± 0.027), accelerations (0.862 ± 0.072), and strains (0.707 ± 0.143). The personalized THUMS models also generally predicted injuries consistent with those identified during posttest autopsy.

Conclusions: The study highlights the need to control for pedestrian anthropometry when validating pedestrian human body models against PMHS data. The information provided in the current study could be useful for improving model biofidelity for vehicle–pedestrian impact scenarios.     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Determination of specific gravity of municipal solid waste

This investigation was conducted to evaluate experimental determination of specific gravity (G_s) of municipal solid waste (MSW). Water pycnometry, typically used for testing soils was adapted for testing MSW using a large flask with 2000 mL capacity and specimens with 100–350 g masses. Tests were conducted on manufactured waste samples prepared using US waste constituent components; fresh wastes obtained prior and subsequent to compaction at an MSW landfill; and wastes obtained from various depths at the same landfill. Factors that influence specific gravity were investigated including waste particle size, compaction, and combined decomposition and stress history. The measured average specific gravities were 1.377 and 1.530 for as-prepared/uncompacted and compacted manufactured wastes, respectively; 1.072 and 1.258 for uncompacted and compacted fresh wastes, respectively; and 2.201 for old wastes. The average organic content and degree of decomposition were 77.2% and 0%, respectively for fresh wastes and 22.8% and 88.3%, respectively for old wastes. The G_s increased with decreasing particle size, compaction, and increasing waste age. For fresh wastes, reductions in particle size and compaction caused occluded intraparticle pores to be exposed and waste particles to be deformed resulting in increases in specific gravity. For old wastes, the high G_s resulted from loss of biodegradable components that have low G_s as well as potential access to previously occluded pores and deformation of particles due to both degradation processes and applied mechanical stresses. The G_s was correlated to the degree of decomposition with a linear relationship. Unlike soils, the G_s for MSW was not unique, but varied in a landfill environment due both to physical/mechanical processes and biochemical processes. Specific gravity testing is recommended to be conducted not only using representative waste composition, but also using representative compaction, stress, and degradation states.     

Modeling Inorganic Aerosols and Their Response to Changes in Precursor Concentration in Mexico City

Abstract

Based on data from the 1997 Investigación sobre Materia Particulada y Deterioro Atmosférico-Aerosol and Visibility Evaluation Research (IMADA-EVER) campaign and the inorganic aerosol model ISORROPIA, the response of inorganic aerosols to changes in precursor concentrations was calculated. The aerosol behavior is dominated by the abundance of ammonia and thus, changes in ammonia concentration are expected to have a small effect on particle concentrations. Changes in sulfate and nitrate are expected to lead to proportional reductions in inorganic fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Comparing the predictions of ISORROPIA with the observations, the lowest bias and error are achieved when the aerosols are assumed to be in the efflorescence branch. Including crustal species reduces the bias and error for nitrate but does not improve overall model performance. The estimated response of inorganic PM_2.5 to changes in precursor concentrations is affected by the inclusion of crustal species in some cases, although average responses are comparable with and without crustal species. Observed concentrations of particle chloride suggest that gas phase concentrations of hydrogen chloride may not be negligible, and future measurement campaigns should include observations to test this hypothesis. Our ability to model aerosol behavior in Mexico City and, thus, design control strategies, is constrained primarily by a lack of observations of gas phase precursors. Future campaigns should focus in particular on better understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of ammonia concentrations. In addition, gas phase observations of nitric acid are needed, and a measure of particle water content will allow stable versus metastable aerosol behavior to be distinguished.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Effects of particle size on chemical speciation and bioavailability of copper to earthworms (Eisenia fetida) exposed to copper nanoparticles

To investigate the role of particle size on the oxidation, bioavailability, and adverse effects of manufactured Cu nanoparticles (NPs) in soils, we exposed the earthworm Eisenia ferida to a series of concentrations of commercially produced NPs labeled as 20- to 40-nm or < 100-nm Cu in artificial soil media. Effects on growth, mortality, reproduction, and expression of a variety of genes associated with metal homeostasis, general stress, and oxidative stress were measured. We also used X-ray absorption spectroscopy and scanning X-ray fluorescence microscopy to characterize changes in chemical speciation and spatial distribution of the NPs in soil media and earthworm tissues. Exposure concentrations of Cu NPs up to 65 mg kg(-1) caused no adverse effects on ecologically relevant endpoints. Increases in metallothionein expression occurred at concentrations exceeding 20 mg kg(-1) of Cu NPs and concentrations exceeding 10 mg kg(-1) of CuSO4. Based on the relationship of Cu tissue concentration to metallothionein expression level and the spatial distribution and chemical speciation of Cu in the tissues, we conclude that Cu ions and oxidized Cu NPs were taken up by the earthworms. This study suggests that oxidized Cu NPs may enter food chains from soil but that adverse effects in earthworms are likely to occur only at relatively high concentrations (> 65 mg Cu kg(-1) soil).