Probabilistic movement model with emigration simulates movements of deer in Nebraska, 1990–2006

Movements of deer can affect population dynamics, spatial redistribution, and transmission and spread of diseases. Our goal was to model the movement of deer in Nebraska in an attempt to predict the potential for spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) into eastern Nebraska. We collared and radio-tracked >600 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Nebraska during 1990–2006. We observed large displacements (>10 km) for both species and sexes of deer, including migrations up to 100 km and dispersals up to 50 km. Average distance traveled between successive daily locations was 166 m for male and 173 for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 427 m for male and 459 for female deer in western Nebraska. Average daily displacement from initial capture point was 10 m for male and 14 m for female deer in eastern Nebraska, and 27 m for male and 28 m for female deer in western Nebraska. We used these data on naturally occurring movements to create and test 6 individual-based models of movement for white-tailed deer and mule deer in Nebraska, including models that incorporated sampling from empirical distributions of movement lengths and turn angles (DIST), correlated random walks (CRW), home point fidelity (FOCUS), shifting home point (SHIFT), probabilistic movement acceptance (MOVE), and probabilistic movement with emigration (MOVEwEMI). We created models in sequence in an attempt to account for the shortcomings of the previous model(s). We used the Kolmogrov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test to verify improvement of simulated annual displacement distributions to empirical displacement distributions. The best-fit model (D = 0.07 and 0.08 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively) included a probabilistic movement chance with emigration (MOVEwEMI) and resulted in an optimal daily movement length of 350 m (maximum daily movement length of 2800 m for emigrators) for eastern Nebraska and 370 m (maximum of 2960 m) for western Nebraska. The proportion of deer that moved as emigrators was 0.10 and 0.13 for eastern and western Nebraska, respectively. We propose that the observed spread of CWD may be driven by large movements of a small proportion of deer that help to establish a low prevalence of the disease in areas east of the current endemic area. Our movement models will be used in a larger individual-based simulation of movement, survival, and transmission of CWD to help determine future surveillance and management actions.     

Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

Management, disposal and recycling of waste industrial organic solvents in Hong Kong.

An attempt has been made to establish a mass balance of industrial organic solvents in Hong Kong. It is estimated that only a small portion, less than 4%, of all the organic solvents consumed in Hong Kong are collected as waste solvents and properly treated, while the remainder are used either in the formulation of solvent containing products, or are lost to the environment through vapour emissions, leaks and spills, or dumped illegally. It was found that solvent recycling has been a common practice in some industries but the existing level of solvent recycling in Hong Kong is difficult to estimate. About 87.4% of all the waste organic solvents disposed of at the licensed facilities are potentially recyclable although whether they can be recycled in practice depends on many factors. Examples of existing waste organic solvent management and recycling practices from selected industries in Hong Kong are presented. The economic feasibility of current and future potential recycling systems is evaluated for a few selected cases. An integrated waste organic solvent management strategy is proposed to minimize adverse impacts of organic solvents to the environment and human health.     

Polymer Mineralization in Soils: Effects of Cold Storage on Microbial Populations and Biodegradation Potential

Soil retrieval, processing and storage procedures can have a profound effect on soil microorganisms. In particular, changes in soil microbial populations may adversely affect the biological activity of a soil and drastically alter the soil's potential to mineralize added substrates. The effects of cold storage on the biodegradation of a series of test polymers was investigated using two soils—a synthetic soil mix (SM-L8) and a field soil (Bridgehampton silt loam) from Rhode Island (RI-1). Biodegradation tests were conducted using freshly prepared/collected soil and again following storage at 4°C for 3 to 8 months. Prior to each biodegradation test, the soils were incubated at 60% water-holding capacity (WHC) and 25°C to rejuvenate the microbial populations; the soils were incubated for periods of 48 h (freshly collected soil) or 25 days (soils stored at 4°C). Soil microbial populations were assessed by enumerating different segments of the population on agar plates containing different selective media. Mineralization of the test polymers (cellulose, poly-3-hydroxybutyrate, and starch acetate, d.s. 1.5) was monitored using standard respirometric techniques. Our results demonstrated that cold storage had a generally negative effect on the soil microbial populations themselves but that its effect on the capacity of the soil microorganisms to degrade the test polymers varied between soils and polymer type. Whereas cold storage resulted in dramatic shifts in the community structure of the soil microbial populations, substantial restoration of these populations was possible by first conditioning the soils at 60% WHC and ambient temperatures for 25 days. Likewise, although the effects of cold storage on polymer mineralization varied with the test polymer and soil, these effects could be largely offset by including an initial 25-day stabilization period in the test.     

Plant diversity, CO2, and N influence inorganic and organic N leaching in grasslands

In nitrogen (N)-limited systems, the potential to sequester carbon depends on the balance between N inputs and losses as well as on how efficiently N is used, yet little is known about responses of these processes to changes in plant species richness, atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), and N deposition. We examined how plant species richness (1 or 16 species), elevated [CO2] (ambient or 560 ppm), and inorganic N addition (0 or 4 g x m(-2) x yr(-1)) affected ecosystem N losses, specifically leaching of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) and organic N (DON) in a grassland field experiment in Minnesota, USA. We observed greater DIN leaching below 60 cm soil depth in the monoculture plots (on average 1.8 and 3.1 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1) for ambient N and N-fertilized plots respectively) than in the 16-species plots (0.2 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1) for both ambient N and N-fertilized plots), particularly when inorganic N was added. Most likely, loss of complementary resource use and reduced biological N demand in the monoculture plots caused the increase in DIN leaching relative to the high-diversity plots. Elevated [CO2] reduced DIN concentrations under conditions when DIN concentrations were high (i.e., in N-fertilized and monoculture plots). Contrary to the results for DIN, DON leaching was greater in the 16-species plots than in the monoculture plots (on average 0.4 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1) in 16-species plots and 0.2 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1) in monoculture plots). In fact, DON dominated N leaching in the 16-species plots (64% of total N leaching as DON), suggesting that, even with high biological demand for N, substantial amounts of N can be lost as DON. We found no significant main effects of elevated [CO2] on DIN or DON leaching; however, elevated [CO2] reduced the positive effect of inorganic N addition on DON leaching, especially during the second year of observation. Our results suggest that plant species richness, elevated [CO2], and N deposition alter DIN loss primarily through changes in biological N demand. DON losses can be as large as DIN loss but are more sensitive to organic matter production and turnover.     

Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year-round residents or long-distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements.     

Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Application of ultrasonic assisted extraction of chemically diverse organic compounds from soils and sediments

The objective of this research was the development, optimization, and demonstration of an ultrasonic assisted extraction (UAE) based method for organic anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs) with a range of physicochemical properties from soil and sediment samples. The optimized method was designed to be cost effective compared to existing extraction methods, which may require large quantities of consumables, produce substantial volumes of organic waste, or require costly instrumentation or equipment. Reagent grade sand, soil collected from the native grassland in proximity to Eastern Washington University (EWU), and sediment samples collected from the Spokane river were used as sample matrices during method development. These matrices were fortified with eight AWIs of varying chemical properties that are representative of a variety of household, industrial, and agricultural sources. The recoveries of the AWIs spiked onto these matrices were determined in the extracts using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). These values reflect the efficiency of the method for extraction of these analytes from representative environmental matrices. Recoveries ranged from 46.1% to 110% in the fortified soil and from 49.2% to 118.6% in the fortified sediment samples, which is comparable with existing methods for the study analytes. The optimized method was then used to quantify AWIs in a biosolid-amended soil. Indole and p-cresol were detected in the biosolid-amended soil.     

The degradation of dissolved organic nitrogen associated with melanoidin using a UV/H2O2 AOP

The aim of this study was to examine the simultaneous degradation of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and associated colour from wastewater containing melanoidins by an advanced oxidation process (AOP). UV irradiation of H2O2 was used as the mechanism to create the hydroxyl radical for oxidation. Melanoidins are large nitrogenous organic compounds that are refractory during biological wastewater treatment processes. The simultaneous degradation of DON and colour, present as a result of these compounds, was investigated using an AOP. The oxidation process was much more capable of removing colour (99% degradation), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (50% degradation) and DON (25% degradation) at the optimal applied dose of hydrogen peroxide for the system (3300 mg l(-1)). This indicated that colour and DON removal were decoupled problems for the purpose of treating melanoidin by an AOP and thus colour removal can not be used as an indication of DON removal Colour was caused by organic molecules with molecular weight greater than 10 kDa. Oxidation caused a partial reduction of the DON (41-15% of the total dissolved nitrogen) and DOC (29-14% of the DOC) associated with the large molecular weight fraction (>10 kDa) and almost complete colour removal (87-3% of the total colour). The degraded DON was mostly accounted for by the formation of ammonia (31% of the nitrogen removed from the large fraction) and small molecular weight compounds (66% of the nitrogen removed from the large fraction). The degraded DOC appeared to be mostly mineralised (to CO2) with only 20% of the degraded compounds appearing as small molecular weight DOC.     

Repeatability,Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analyses of the BANCS Model Developed to Predict Annual Streambank Erosion Rates

Accelerated streambank erosion caused by channel instability can be the leading cause of sediment impairment of streams. Obtaining accurate streambank erosion rates for sediment budgeting and prioritizing mitigation efforts can be difficult and costly. One approach to quantifying streambank erosion rates is through the development and implementation of an empirically derived “Bank Assessment for Non‐point Source Consequences of Sediment” (BANCS) model. This study aims to improve the BANCS model application by evaluating repeatability between users and identifying sensitive and/or uncertain model inputs. Statistical analysis of streambank evaluations conducted by 10 different individuals suggests the implementation of the BANCS model may not be repeatable. This finding may be due to sensitive model inputs, such as streambank height and near‐bank stress level prediction method selection, and/or uncertain model inputs, such as bank material identification and the associated adjustment of erosion potential. Furthermore, it was found assessing streambanks as a group by obtaining a measure of central tendency from individual evaluations, as well as obtaining a higher level of training, may improve model implementation precision. Application of these suggestions may result in improved prediction of streambank erosion rates utilizing the BANCS model methodology.