Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Hierarchical regulation of nitrogen export from urban catchments: interactions of storms and landscapes.

In urban catchments of arid central Arizona, we investigate how the export of mineral and organic nitrogen (N) in storm runoff is regulated by interactions between local landscape characteristics and broader scale storm features. First, we test whether N export is more a function of (1) processes that affect N concentration in runoff or (2) the propensity of the catchment to convey rainfall as runoff. With data pooled across catchments, the mass of N in export (load) is determined by processes regulating runoff N concentration. There are exceptions when catchments are examined individually, where N load from some catchments is determined by the hydrologic responsiveness of the catchment. Second, we investigate the relationship between N export and catchment features. Loads per catchment area were greater from more impervious catchments, probably because impervious catchments held more N in a mobilizable phase and conveyed more rainfall as overland flow. Loads per area were lower from larger catchments, possibly owing to more N-retention hot spots in larger catchments. Catchments with the greatest N exports were those with commercial land use, and loads decreased as development became less prevalent or as residential replaced industrial land use. Third, we investigated how catchment features moderated direct responses of N export to storms. Export was less correlated with storm features in catchments that were larger, more pervious, and less industrial. Results support an "N build and flush" hypothesis, which purports that there is little biotic processing of N deposited to arid, urban surfaces with little organic matter. The rate and duration of deposition determine the size of the mobile N pool. Any amount of rainfall capable of generating overland flow would entrain nearly all mobilizable N and export it from the catchment. Nonetheless, these results suggest that, even with daunting seasonal and interannual variability in storm conditions, material export can be reduced by managing intrinsic catchment features.     

Metal contamination increases the sensitivity of larvae but not gametes to ocean acidification in the polychaete Pomatoceros lamarckii (Quatrefages)

Ocean acidification is not happening in isolation but against a background of chronic low-level pollution for most coastal marine environments. The reproductive and larval stages of marine invertebrates can be highly sensitive to the impacts of both environmental pollutants and ocean acidification, but very little is currently known regarding the potential impacts of combined contaminant and high CO₂ exposures on the health of marine organisms. Ocean acidification research to date has focused heavily on the responses of calcifying marine invertebrate larvae and algae, and as such the polychaetes as a group, despite their ecological importance, remain understudied. Here, we investigate the effects of elevated seawater CO₂ (pH range 8.1–7.4, plus an extreme pH of 7.2 in the sperm motility experiments), in combination with the environmental pollutant copper (0.002 μM), on the early life history stages of the intertidal polychaete Pomatoceros lamarckii from two populations. P. lamarckii sperm appear to be robust to elevated seawater CO₂. Whilst all three of the sperm motility end points measured showed a response to elevated CO₂, these responses were small and not linear. The percentage of motile sperm and sperm curvilinear velocity were significantly reduced in the lower pH treatments of 7.4 and 7.2, whereas sperm straight-line velocity (VSL) was mostly unaffected except for an increased VSL at pH 8.0. Fertilisation success was investigated using two populations from the South West (UK), one from Torquay and one from Plymouth Sound. Fertilisation success was slightly but significantly reduced at the 7.6 and 7.4 pH treatments for both populations (a 9.0 % reduction in fertilisation success from pH 8.1 to 7.4 for Torquay), but with a greater effect observed in the population from Plymouth Sound (a 13.33 % reduction in fertilisation success). No additional impact of 0.002 μM copper exposure on fertilisation success was found. Larval survival was found to be much more sensitive to elevated CO₂ than sperm function or fertilisation, and a significant interaction with copper exposure was observed. These results demonstrate the potential for polychaete larvae to be affected by predicted ocean acidification conditions and that chronic coastal pollutants, such as copper, have the potential to alter larval susceptibility to ocean acidification conditions.     

Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike.This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development.     

Local and interregional economic analysis of large US Department of Energy waste management projects

An economic simulation model was used to understand the local and interregional economic impacts of four alternative waste management technologies proposed for the US Department of Energy's Savannah River nuclear weapons site. The simulations of the four technologies, each of which will cost at least a billion dollars, were done for the period 2000-2015. The analyses show that differences in project costs are not directly reflected in local economic impacts because of differences among the technologies during the design, testing and construction phases; differences in locations where the design and pilot-testing would occur; and choices about how any of the technologies would be funded.     

A Note on the Emission of Nitrogen Oxides from Silage in Opened Bunker Silos

The evolution of NO_x from grass and maize silages wasmeasured using chemiluminescence in samples kept in airtightcontainers, in the silos and in a 750 kg mass removed to a mixer waggon. Measurements were made on the grass and maizesilos in two consecutive years. The results show that thereis continuous evolution of NO_x after silos have been opened and that high concentrations persist in the mass whichare rapidly released on agitation at the feed-out. The maximumrecorded concentrations of NO and NO₂ were 1985 and 152 ppbv respectively. These values are orders of magnitude greaterthan for rural background levels and exceed the maximum hourlyexposure of 50 ppbv for NO₂ recommended by the UK expertpanel for quality standards.     

Reactive transport modelling of biogeochemical processes and carbon isotope geochemistry inside a landfill leachate plume

The biogeochemical processes governing leachate attenuation inside a landfill leachate plume (Banisveld, the Netherlands) were revealed and quantified using the 1D reactive transport model PHREEQC-2. Biodegradation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was simulated assuming first-order oxidation of two DOC fractions with different reactivity, and was coupled to reductive dissolution of iron oxide. The following secondary geochemical processes were required in the model to match observations: kinetic precipitation of calcite and siderite, cation exchange, proton buffering and degassing. Rate constants for DOC oxidation and carbonate mineral precipitation were determined, and other model parameters were optimized using the nonlinear optimization program PEST by means of matching hydrochemical observations closely (pH, DIC, DOC, Na, K, Ca, Mg, NH4, Fe(II), SO4, Cl, CH4, saturation index of calcite and siderite). The modelling demonstrated the relevance and impact of various secondary geochemical processes on leachate plume evolution. Concomitant precipitation of siderite masked the act of iron reduction. Cation exchange resulted in release of Fe(II) from the pristine anaerobic aquifer to the leachate. Degassing, triggered by elevated CO2 pressures caused by carbonate precipitation and proton buffering at the front of the plume, explained the observed downstream decrease in methane concentration. Simulation of the carbon isotope geochemistry independently supported the proposed reaction network.     

Two high-speed, portable GC systems designed for the measurement of non-methane hydrocarbons and PAN: results from the Jungfraujoch High Altitude Observatory

Near real-time measurements of light non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) have been performed in the free troposphere using two fast gas chromatography (GC) instruments designed for use on aircraft. A GC-helium ionisation detector (HID) system measured 15 C(2)-C(5) hydrocarbons with 5 min time resolution and a dual channel GC-Electron Capture Detector (ECD) measured PAN with 90 s resolution. Both instruments had low parts per trillion by volume (pptV) detection limits and ran continuously at the remote Jungfraujoch (JFJ) research station in the Swiss Alps (46.55[degree]N, 7.98[degree]E), 3580 m above mean sea level (AMSL), during February/March 2003. Carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide and all odd nitrogen species (NO(y)) were also measured continuously. Hydrocarbons and CO were strongly correlated in all air-masses whilst PAN exhibited both positive and negative correlations with respect to O(3), dependent on age and origin of the air-mass sampled. PAN was found to contribute [similar]20% to the NO(y) sampled on average. The experiment, as well as providing interesting datasets from this remote location, also demonstrated that when optimised, GC techniques have the potential to measure at a time resolution significantly greater than is traditionally considered, with high sensitivity and low uncertainty.     

Biogeochemistry and isotope geochemistry of a landfill leachate plume

The biogeochemical processes were identified which improved the leachate composition in the flow direction of a landfill leachate plume (Banisveld, The Netherlands). Groundwater observation wells were placed at specific locations after delineating the leachate plume using geophysical tests to map subsurface conductivity. Redox processes were determined using the distribution of solid and soluble redox species, hydrogen concentrations, concentration of dissolved gases (N(2), Ar, and CH(4)), and stable isotopes (delta15N-NO(3), delta34S-SO(4), delta13C-CH(4), delta2H-CH(4), and delta13C of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC, respectively)). The combined application of these techniques improved the redox interpretation considerably. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) decreased downstream in association with increasing delta13C-DOC values confirming the occurrence of degradation. Degradation of DOC was coupled to iron reduction inside the plume, while denitrification could be an important redox process at the top fringe of the plume. Stable carbon and hydrogen isotope signatures of methane indicated that methane was formed inside the landfill and not in the plume. Total gas pressure exceeded hydrostatic pressure in the plume, and methane seems subject to degassing. Quantitative proof for DOC degradation under iron-reducing conditions could only be obtained if the geochemical processes cation exchange and precipitation of carbonate minerals (siderite and calcite) were considered and incorporated in an inverse geochemical model of the plume. Simulation of delta13C-DIC confirmed that precipitation of carbonate minerals happened.