DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM CONJUNCTIVE USE1

The Las Vegas, Nevada area like most semi-arid basins, was developed through exploitation of available ground-water resources. Area growth in this large valley has occurred in a scattered and sporadic manner with development both in incorporated areas and within the County. As a result, today there exist five major water suppliers which are: a water district, three municipalities, and a large corporation, in addition to numerous small water companies and thousands of domestic wells. In the past 20 years the area has grown from a population of less than 50,000 to over 300,000 today. The bulk of the water demand for this growth has been met from the ground-water resource and as a result the basin is being severely mined. Current extractions are over three times the estimated annual replenishment. Rapidly declining water levels are increasing the costs of water and are creating water shortages during periods of peak demand. To meet both the current and anticipated water demands, the Southern Nevada Water Supply Project is being constructed to import additional water from nearby Lake Mead. Agriculture in the area is very limited, and primarily uses reclaimed waste water for irrigation. The chief water demands in the area are thus municipal and industrial, with the former predominating. This study was designed to determine how best the Las Vegas Valley Water District, supplier of 80 percent of the domestic water, might integrate the use of the existing ground water and anticipated imported surface water. Additionally the consequences of application of certain provisions in the Nevada Water Law were examined to determine their effects on the ground-water system and costs of water. To achieve these objectives, a dynamic programming technique was utilized. The problem as formulated consists of a single decision variable, single state variable dynamic programming algorithm evaluated over a fifty-year planning horizon at monthly intervals. Three alternative solutions, with different ground-water law constraints are evaluated. In all solutions certain basic operating rules regarding ground-water pumping distribution and use of surface-water systems are kept constant. The problem is considered as deterministic in all respects. Recharge to ground water is assumed to equal the estimated average annual replenishment evenly distributed over the year and additionally is not considered to be a function of average basin ground water potential. The only surface supply, Lake Mead, is considered to operate at near constant elevation and not be subject to shortage conditions. In light of the size of Lake Mead, the Colorado River flow and the size of Nevada's allotment, 300,000 ac ft, the latter assumption is reasonable. Demand for water is considered as a known function of time. Optimization of conjunctive use for the Water District is based on the objective function of minimizing water production costs. Costs of distributing water are considered to be constant regardless of source, and so are not included. Also, fixed costs of amortizing the pipeline project and well fields are not considered. Results of the study are presented as a series of policy traces under each of the three alternatives considered. These traces describe the ground-water basin response under optimal operating conditions, given an estimate as to the present worth of ground-water pumping rights, and prescribe monthly water-procurement schedules for the operation of the Water District.     

Uptake and release of cesium-137 by five plant species as influenced by soil amendments in field experiments

Phytoextraction field experiments were conducted on soil contaminated with 0.39 to 8.7 Bq/g of 137Cs to determine the capacity of five plant species to accumulate 137Cs and the effects of three soil treatments on uptake. The plants tested were redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus L. var. aureus); a mixture of redroot pigweed and spreading pigweed (A. graecizans L.); purple amaranth (A. cruteus L.) x Powell's amaranth (A. powellii S. Watson), referred to here as the amaranth hybrid; Indian mustard [Brassica juncea (L.) Czern.]; and cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata). For control plants, the concentration ratios (CR) of 137Cs were greatest for redroot pigweed and the amaranth hybrid, with average CR values of 1.0 +/- 0.24 and 0.95 +/- 0.14, respectively. The lowest value was for Indian mustard at 0.36 +/- 0.10. The soil treatments included (i) application of NH4NO3 solution to the soil after plants had matured, (ii) addition of composted manure to increase organic matter content of the soil, (iii) combination of the manure and ammonium solution treatments, and (iv) controls. The ammonium solution gave little overall increase in accumulation of 137Cs. The use of composted manure also had little influence, but the combination of the composted manure with application of ammonium solutions had a distinctly negative effect on plant uptake of 137Cs. On average the fraction of 137Cs taken up from the soil was reduced by 57.4 +/- 1.2% compared with controls. This was the result of release of competing ions, primarily Ca, from the manure and was observed across all five plant species tested. The application of ammonium solution took place in the last two weeks before harvest. The reduction of plant 137Cs content, by addition of the ammonium solution, as it interacted with the manure, indicates that substantial quantities 137Cs can be released from the shoots of plants as a result of sudden changes in soil solution chemistry.     

Watershed scale assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus loadings in the Indian River Lagoon basin,Florida

There is a growing evidence that the ecological and biological integrity of the lagoon has declined during the last 50 years, probably due to the decline in water quality. Establishment of a watershed scale seagrass-based nutrient load assessment is the major aim of water quality management in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL). Best estimate loadings incorporate wet and dry deposition, surface water, groundwater, sediment nutrient flux, and point source effluent discharge data. On the average, the IRL is receiving annual external loadings of 832, 645 and 94,476kg of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), respectively, from stormwater discharges and agricultural runoff. The average internal cycling of TN and TP from sediment deposits in the IRL was about 42,640kg TN and 1050kg TPyr(-1). Indirect evidence suggests that atmospheric deposition has played a role in the ongoing nutrient enrichment in the IRL. The estimated total atmospheric deposition of TN and TP was about 32,940 and 824kgyr(-1), while groundwater contribution was about 84,920 and 24,275kgyr(-1), respectively, to the surface waters of the IRL. The estimated annual contribution of point effluent discharge was about 60,408kg TN and 7248kg TP. In total, the IRL basin is receiving an annual loading of about 1,053,553kg TN and 127,873kg TP. With these results, it is clear that the current rate of nutrient loadings is causing a shift in the primary producers of the IRL from macrophyte to phytoplankton- or algal-based system. The goal is to reverse that shift, to attain and maintain a macrophyte-based estuarine system in the IRL.     

Comparison of Four <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sesbania</Emphasis> Species to Remediate Pb/Zn and Cu Mine Tailings

A 6-month greenhouse pot trial was performed, aimed at screening appropriate Sesbania species for remediation of Pb/Zn and Cu mine tailings. Performances of young seedlings of four Sesbania species (S. cannabina, S. grandiflora, S. rostrata, and S. sesban) were compared with and without inoculation of rhizobia. Seedlings were planted in two types of tailings amended with garden soil or garden soil mixed with river sediment. The results indicated that inoculated plants generally produced a higher biomass than samples without inoculation. Pb/Zn mine tailings containing rather high concentrations of total and water-soluble Cu, Pb, and Zn were toxic to plant growth compared with Cu mine tailings, according to the growth performance of the four species. Sesbania sesban and S. rostrata showed superior growth performance, compared to the other two species. Thus, they can serve as pioneer species to modify the barren environment, by providing organic matter and essential nutrients such as nitrogen, upon decomposition, in a relatively short period of time. This is especially true for S. rostrata, which is an annual plant that forms both stem and root nodules. However, a longer-term field trial should be conducted to investigate if superior species can beneficially modify the habitat for the growth of subsequent plant communities.     

FISH RESPONSES TO TEMPERATURE TO ASSESS EFFECTS OF THERMAL DISCHARGE ON BIOLOGICAL INTEGRITY1

ABSTRACT: The applicability of the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) water temperature criteria in evaluating the impact of a thermal discharge from the P. H. Glatfelter Paper Company, Spring Grove, Pennsylvania, is analyzed. A review of the literature relative to 11 temperature Criteria was conducted for six fish species designated by the USEPA as “representative important species” (RIS) of the West Branch Codorus Creek, Susquehanna River drainage. The species were: Notemigonus crysolcucas (golden shiner), Notropis analostanus (satinfin shiner), Rhinichthys atratulus (blacknose dace), Catostomus comme-soni (white sucker), Lepomis gibbosus (pumpkinseed). and Micropterous salmoides (largemouth bass). It was found that by applying only USEPA suggested criteria that a complete evaluation was not satisfactory. Temperature behavior data, specifically preference and avoidance information, coupled with field sampliug was needed to properly assess the effects of the thermal effluent. The final analysis indicated that the thermal discharge of the paper company should have minimal effect on the fish community of Codorus Creek.     

Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Comparing computing formulas for estimating concentration ratios

The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance on the choice of computing formulas (estimators) for estimating average concentration ratios and other ratio-type measures of radionuclides and other environmental contaminant transfers between ecosystem components. Mathematical expressions for the expected value of three commonly used estimators (arithmetic mean of ratios, geometric mean of ratios, and the ratio of means) are obtained when the multivariate lognormal distribution is assumed. These expressions are used to explain why these estimators will not in general give the same estimate of the average concentration ratio. They illustrate that the magnitude of the discrepancies depends on the magnitude of measurement biases, and on the variance and correlations associated with spatial heterogeneity and measurement errors. This paper also reports on a computer simulation study that compares the accuracy of eight computing formulas for estimating a ratio relationship that is constant over time and/or space. Statistical models appropriate for both controlled spiking experiments and observational field studies for either normal or lognormal distributions are considered. Our results indicate that for either type of study the geometric mean is generally preferred if the lognormal distribution applies. However, the geometric mean has the disadvantage that its expected value depends on n, the number of measurements taken. Ricker's estimator, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{rt}}$, appears to perform worse than the other estimators studied when the observations are lognormal. All eight estimators appear to be equally accurate for the controlled spiking study when data are normally distributed. For observational field studies when data are normally distributed the ratio of means or slight modifications thereof are preferred to other estimators investigated. Before one chooses a computing formula for estimating a concentration ratio, thought should be given to what target value needs to be estimated to satisfy study objectives, and to whether the normal or lognormal distribution is a more realistic model. The geometric mean performs well for lognormal distributions, but comparison of geometric means or of a geometric mean with environmental limits can be misleading if n is small. The arithmetic mean of ratios is a conservative choice in that it will always give a larger estimate than will the geometric mean. It may also be severely biased when data are lognormal and the variances of measurement errors are large. The ratio of the means is a reasonable choice if the distribution is normal. The median of the observed ratios, $\text{R}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>md</mtext>}}$, is useful estimate since it is easily obtained and has an easily understood interpretation as the point above which and below which 50% of the observed ratios lie. Also, it is appropriate no matter what the distribution of the observed ratios may be. Confidence limits on the median are also easily obtained. Finally, while this paper emphasizes applications in radionuclide research, our results should be applicable to a wide range of environmental contaminants since many contaminants have approximately lognormal distributions.