Stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs for predicting trends in water quality

An autoregressive approach for the prediction of water quality trends in systems subject to varying meteorological conditions and short observation periods is discussed. Under these conditions, the dynamics of the system can be reliably forecast, provided their internal processes are understood and characterized independently of the external inputs. A methodology based on stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs (ARX) is proposed to assess and predict trends in hydrosystems which are at risk of contamination by organic and inorganic pollutants, such as pesticides or nutrients. The procedures are exemplified for the transport of atrazine and its main metabolite deethylatrazine in a small agricultural catchment in France. The approach is expected to be of particular value to assess current and future trends in water quality as part of the European Water Framework Directive and Groundwater Directives.     

Metallurgy,environmental pollution and the decline of Etruscan civilisation

Background, aim and scope  

The Etruscans were justifiably famous in antiquity for their advanced metallurgy and for the rich mineral resources of their region (including La Tolfa, the Colline Metallifere, Mont’Amiata and Elba). We offer a new perspective on certain Iron Age and Archaic (ca. 1,000–480 bc) Etruscan industrial and habitation sites, and on the problem of heavy metal poisoning, still being investigated today, coincidentally in some of the same areas that originally saw Etruscan mines and workshops.     

Consumptive values and local perception of dry forest decline in Burkina Faso,West Africa

Traditional ecological knowledge and local experience of resource management and the usefulness of plant species can make important contributions to attempts to understand forest ecosystems and to develop effective sustainable management strategies for them. Therefore, the utilization of tree species by local people, their perceptions of changes in the surrounding forests, and suggested solutions for associated problems, were studied in the Sissili province of southern Burkina Faso. Information was collected through a combination of participatory rural appraisals, household interviews, and observational methods. Principal component analysis was used to analyze the consumptive values of woody species and their respective parts. A total of 82 species were identified, 90% of them were used for medicinal purposes, 78% for fodder, 73% for food, 67% for house construction, and 58% for wood carving. This suggests that forests play a key role in sustaining the rural livelihood and contributing to poverty reduction. The various stakeholders perceived that vegetation clearing for cultivation of cash crops (agribusiness) was the main driver of the change in forest cover. Species reported to be declining in the area included Parkia biglobosa, Pterocarpus erinaceus, Afzelia africana, Bombax costatum, Tamarindus indica, and Diospyros mespiliformis. Thus, a concerted effort should be made to manage the remaining natural forests in the country. Appropriate management strategies should be developed jointly by the local communities and external support groups to integrate the valuable local knowledge about forest species with the stakeholders’ suggestions in order to promote sustainable management of the region’s forest ecosystems.     

Sustainability indicators for clean development mechanism projects in Vietnam

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexible instruments of the Kyoto Protocol designed to combat climate change so as to bring advantages to developing countries and developed countries alike. Indeed, CDM projects have a two-fold objective: to offset greenhouse gas emissions and to contribute to sustainable development in the host country. However in many cases, the latter objective appears to be marginalized. This is at least partly due to the difficulties surrounding the definition and the measurement of sustainability, in particular in a developing country context. To assess CDM projects’ contribution to sustainable development in the host country, scholars and practitioners need adapted indicator sets. A set of indicators were developed by way of an iterative Delphi approach amongst selected Vietnamese experts. The Delphi approach allowed a systematic collection of the experts’ judgements on the sustainability indicators through a set of sequentially applied questionnaires, interspersed with feedback from earlier responses. This exercise resulted in the selection of a set of 36 indicators, which emphasise economic efficiency, public health and pollution issues. The exercise yielded a locally supported and context-specific set of sustainability indicators that will allow Vietnamese decision-makers to enhance the sustainability of the approved CDM projects. In the future this set should be continually improved through real-life application and further participation from local stakeholders. This study is a first step in a long-term process towards developing an adapted toolkit for sustainability assessment of CDM projects in Vietnam.     

Responses of the European flounder (Platichthys flesus) to a mixture of PAHs and PCBs in experimental conditions

A multibiomarker approach was developed to evaluate the juvenile European flounder responses to a complex mixture of 9 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 12 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Exposure was performed through contaminated food pellets displaying: (1) PAH and PCB levels similar to those detected in the heavily polluted Seine estuary, respectively in sediments and in flatfish and (2) ten times these concentrations. Several biomarkers of the immune system (e.g., lysozyme concentration and gene expression of complement component C3 and TNF-receptor), DNA damage (e.g., Comet assay), energetic metabolism (e.g.,?activity of cytochrome C oxidase), detoxification process (e.g., cytochrome P450 1A1 expression level: CYP1A1; betaine homocysteine methyl transferase expression level: BHMT) were investigated after 14 and 29 days of contamination, followed by a 14-days recovery period. After 29 days of contamination, the detoxification activity (CYP1A1 expression level) was positively correlated with DNA damages; the increase of the BHMT expression level could also be related to the detoxification process. Furthermore, after the recovery period, some biomarkers were still upregulated (i.e., CYP1A1 and BHMT expression levels). The immune system was significantly modulated by the chemical stress at the two concentration levels, and the lysozyme appeared to be the most sensitive marker of the mixture impact.     

Photocatalytic degradation of methylbutandioic acid (MBA) in aqueous TiO2 suspension: influences of MBA adsorption on the solid semi-conductor

In the present work we describe the photocatalytic degradation of methylbutandioic acid (MBA), focusing particularly on adsorption of the MBA on TiO₂ surface. We observe a very fast surface carboxylate formation, a decrease of the surface carboxylates during the reaction and an apparent zero order kinetic for the degradation of MBA. We conclude that the main way of MBA degradation is its reaction in the solution, and not on the surface of TiO₂. The influence of the surface carboxylates on the efficiency of the catalyser is under study.     

HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF FLOODING DAMAGE ON A USA/QUEBEC RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin, located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec, Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods, for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However, a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event, and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends, this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact, what is now considered a 100‐year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten‐year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers, land planners, and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process.     

Organochlorine pesticides in soils under different land usage in the Taihu Lake region, China

A field study was conducted in the Taihu Lake region, China in 2004 to reveal the organochlorine pesticide concentrations in soils after the ban of these substances in the year 1983. Thirteen organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were analyzed in soils from paddy field, tree land and fallow land. Total organochlorine pesticide residues were higher in agricultural soils than in uncultivated fallow land soils. Among all the pesticides, ΣDDX (DDD, DDE and DDT) had the highest concentration for all the soil samples, ranging from 3.10 ng/g to 166.55 ng/g with a mean value of 57.04 ng/g and followed by ΣHCH, ranging from 0.73 ng/g to 60.97 ng/g with a mean value of 24.06 ng/g. Dieldrin, endrin, HCB and α-endosulfan were also found in soils with less than 15 ng/g. Ratios of p,p'-(DDD DDE)/DDT in soils under three land usages were: paddy field ＞ tree land ＞ fallow land, indicating that land usage inlfuenced the degradation of DDT in soils. Ratios of p,p'-(DDD DDE)/DDT ＞1, showing aged residues of DDTs in soils of the Taihu Lake region. The results were discussed with data from a former study that showed very low actual concentrations of HCH and DDT in soils in the Taihu Lake region, but according to the chemical half-lives and their concentrations in soils in 1980s, the concentration of DDT in soils seemed to be underestimated. In any case our data show that the ban on the use of HCH and DDT resulted in a tremendous reduction of these pesticide residues in soils, but there are still high amounts of pesticide residues in soils, which need more remediation processes.     

Determination of metal partitioning in porewater extracted from the Seine River Estuary sediment (France)

Total dissolved trace and major metals and their partitioning in porewater sediment have been investigated at two sites in the Seine River estuary (France). For this purpose, solid phase extraction (SPE) has been employed using specific chelating resins for the separation and preconcentration of organic and inorganic forms of studied metals under controlled (N2) inert atmosphere. In fact, the study is focused on the development of a method for sample collection and handling under inert atmosphere in order to avoid some potential artefacts of the extracted porewater, to preserve the samples from possible chemical oxidation changes and to determine metals partitioning between organic and inorganic forms. For this point, a separation and preconcentration method using two columns in series (chelamine and C18 columns) was used. The trace and major metals fixed on the two resins for all determinations were stripped by nitric acid (2 M) and analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) and Zeeman Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (ZGF-AAS). The relationship between the distribution of metals and physico-chemical parameters such as pH and Eh (redox potential) as a function of depth was discussed. Some tendency in the distributions and seasonal variability of these traces and major metals are improved. The concentrations for all studied metals decreased as a function of depth where iron and manganese were found at mg L(-1) levels and other metals were found at [micro sign]g L(-1) levels, as well as there were significant fractions of all metals (except of manganese) which were complexed by organic matter. The comparison of data for the major elements (Fe and Mn), obtained by direct determination (without preconcentration) and preconcentration, show a very good recovery.     

Can Offshore Wind Energy Be a Lever for Job Creation in France? Some Insights from a Local Case Study

The French government has launched three separate calls for tender in July 2011, March 2013, and December 2016 to install 3.5 GW of offshore wind. In addition to contributing to the fulfillment of environmental commitments, the deployment of offshore wind energy is expected to be a lever for economic development. To assess gross economic impacts, mainly in terms of job creation, we built a regional input-output model of the wind farm off Saint-Brieuc located in the region of Brittany, north-western France. Our model indicates that the project will have positive effects on Brittany’s economy. In particular, during the investment phase, the wind farm is expected to lead to €0.38 M/year/MW of added value and 6.03 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs/year/MW. During the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase, the model predicts the generation of €0.15 M/year/MW of added value and 1.02 FTE jobs/year/MW. These results imply that the project will increase Brittany’s GDP slightly by 0.22 and 0.09% during the investment and O&M phases, respectively. Results also show that out of total wealth created in France, 38 and 66% will be created in Brittany as well as 32 and 51% of employment during respectively investment and O&M phases. A comparative analysis highlights in particular that economic impacts are generally stronger during the investment phase. It also demonstrates that the magnitude of economic impacts depends on the proportion of local industries in the supply chain. Policy implications of our model stress the need to revise the economic, technological, regulatory, and social frameworks within which the offshore wind industry currently operates in France to establish the conditions necessary for its development.