PROBLEMS IN FORECASTING WATER REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT. Methodological problems associated with forecasting water requirements by use of regression analysis are examined. Problems occurring when long-range forecasts are based on linear and nonlinear extrapolation of time series models include possible changes in socioeconomic conditions, water allocation system structure, and limits to growth. Problems arising in forecasting based on multiple regression models are likely to involve serially dependent errors, multicollinear explanatory variables, and difficulties inherent to the presence of explanatory variables that must themselves be predicted.     

Contaminants in Wintering Canvasbacks and Scaups from San Francisco Bay, California

Organochlorines, metals, and trace elements were measured in liver, kidney, or whole-body tissues of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria), lesser scaups (A. affinis), and greater scaups (A. marila) collected from San Francisco Bay and three coastal areas of California during the winter of 1986–1987. Potentially toxic concentrations of mercury (mean 10.4 µg/g, dry weight) and selenium (mean 32.7 µg/g, dry weight) were found in livers of scaups and canvasbacks from several San Francisco Bay sites. These elements varied spatially, temporally, and between species, with the highest concentrations found in late winter. Mean concentrations of mercury, selenium, and cadmium were generally higher in scaups than in canvasbacks. Of all the organochlorines included in the analyses, only p,p'-DDE and total PCBs were detected in all samples in this study. Mean whole-body concentrations of DDE and PCBs from San Francisco Bay ducks collected in late winter varied spatially and between species, but the concentrations were not considered toxic. Causes for inter-specific differences are unclear, but may be attributable to differences in diet, movement, or physiology.     

Laboratory-scale chlorination to estimate the levels of halogenated DBPs in full-scale distribution systems

Occurrence of halogenated disinfection by-products (DBPs) (trihalomethanes –THMs– and haloacetic acids –HAAs–) in the waters of two utilities in Quebec City (Canada) was investigated using two approaches: experimental chlorination studies and full-scale sampling within distribution systems. Experimental studies were designed to reproduce treatment plant and distribution system conditions (chlorine dose, water temperature, pH and water residence time). Differences in halogenated DBPs in the two distribution systems under study were significant and comparable to those observed in experimental laboratory studies. For the waters of both utilities, chlorination studies better reproduced the occurrence of halogenated DBPs in points of the distribution system located near the treatment plant (low residence time of water) than in other points. Multivariate regression models for THMs, HAAs and their species were developed using the data from experimental studies in order to predict halogenated DBP levels measured in the distribution system. Models were all statistically significant, but showed low ability to predict full-scale halogenated DBPs, particularly in points located at distribution system extremities. Specifically, experimental chlorination-based models are not able to simulate the decrease of HAA levels. Results of this research suggest that the use of experimental data to predict halogenated DBP levels in full-scale distribution systems – for operational, regulatory and epidemiological purposes – must be done with caution.     

Glacial-interglacial changes in the occurrence of Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in Vostok Antarctic ice from 240 000 to 410 000 years BP

Lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) have been measured by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry in various sections of the 3623 m deep ice core drilled at Vostok, in central East Antarctica. The sections were dated from 240 to 410 kyear BP (Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 7.5 to 11.3), which corresponds to the 3rd and 4th glacial-interglacial cycles before present. Concentrations are found to have varied greatly during this 170 kyear time period, with high concentration values during the coldest climatic stages such as MIS 8.4 and 10.2 and much lower concentration values during warmer periods, such as the interglacials MIS 7.5, 9.3 and 11.3. Rock and soil dust were the dominant sources for Pb, whatever the period, and for Zn and Cu and possibly Cd during cold climatic stages. The contribution from volcanic emissions was important for Cd during all periods and might have been significant for Cu and Zn during warm periods.     

Creating corporate value and environmental benefit with improved energy performance

Energy investments offer companies a surprisingly high rate of return within a short period of time.and at low risk. c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Varying Stable Nitrogen Isotope Ratios of Different Coastal Marsh Plants and Their Relationships with Wastewater Nitrogen and Land Use in New England, USA

The stable nitrogen isotope ratios of some biota have been used as indicators of sources of anthropogenic nitrogen. In this study the relationships of the stable nitrogen isotope ratios of marsh plants, Iva frutescens (L.), Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin ex Steud, Spartina patens (Ait.) Muhl, Spartina alterniflora Loisel, Ulva lactuca (L.), and Enteromorpha intestinalis (L.) with wastewater nitrogen and land development in New England are described. Five of the six plant species (all but U. lactuca) showed significant relationships of increasing δ ¹⁵N values with increasing wastewater nitrogen. There was a significant (P < 0.0001) downward shift in the δ ¹⁵N of S. patens (6.0 ± 0.48‰) which is mycorrhizal compared with S. alterniflora (8.5 ± 0.41‰). The downward shift in δ ¹⁵N may be caused by the assimilation of fixed nitrogen in the roots of S. patens. P. australis within sites had wide ranges of δ ¹⁵N values, evidently influenced by the type of shoreline development or buffer at the upland border. In residential areas, the presence of a vegetated buffer (n = 24 locations) significantly (P < 0.001) reduced the δ ¹⁵N (mean = 7.4 ± 0.43‰) of the P. australis compared to stands where there was no buffer (mean = 10.9 ± 1.0‰; n = 15). Among the plant species, I. frutescens located near the upland border showed the most significant (R ² = 0.64; P = 0.006) inverse relationship with the percent agricultural land in the watershed. The δ ¹⁵N of P. australis and I. frustescens is apparently an indicator of local inputs near the upland border, while the δ ¹⁵N of Spartina relates with the integrated, watershed-sea nitrogen inputs.     

Temporal Trends of Young-of-Year Fishes in Lake Erie and Comparison of Diel Sampling Periods

We explored temporal trends of young-of-year (YOY) fishes caught in bottom trawl hauls at an established offshore monitoring site in Lake Erie in fall during 1961–2001. Sampling was conducted during morning, afternoon, and night in each year. Catches per hour (CPH) of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) YOY were relatively low and exhibited no temporal trend. This result was consistent with the species’ intolerance to Lake Erie’s adverse winter water temperatures. Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) YOY decreased sharply after 1991, which was consistent with recent oligotrophication of the lake. Following the establishment in 1979 and rapid increase of white perch (Morone americana) YOY, white bass (Morone chrysops) and freshwater drum (Aplodinotus grunniens) YOY decreased. Trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus) YOY decreased during 1986–1991, but recovered to previous levels during 1991–2001. The recovery coincided with the resurgence of mayflies (Ephemoptera) in the lake. CPH of spottail shiner (Notropis hudsonius) and emerald shiner (N. atherinoides) YOY exhibited no temporal trend between 1961 and the late 1970s to early 1980s. CPH of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) YOY decreased during 1961–1988, and walleye (Sander vitreum) YOY increased overall during the time series. These observations were consistent with published studies of adults in the region. CPH of 4 of the 10 species of YOY considered were greatest during night. CPH for walleye YOY was higher in the morning than in the afternoon, but there was no significant difference between night and morning abundances. The results suggest that (1) CPH of YOY fishes may be a useful monitoring tool for Lake Erie, and (2) offshore monitoring programs that do not include night sampling periods may underestimate recruitment for several common species.     

Effects of mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) on chicken germ cells cultured in vitro

In recent decades, many toxicological tests based on in vivo or in vitro models, mainly from mammalian (rat–mouse) and fish species, were used to assess the risks raised by contact or ingestion of molecules of pharmaceutical, agricultural, or natural origin. But no, or few, in vitro tests using other non-mammalian models such as bird have been explored despite their advantages: the embryonic gonads of birds have a high plasticity of development sensitive to estrogen, and sperm production is nearly two times faster than in rodents. Hence, we have established an in vitro culture of germ cells and somatic cells from chicken post-natal testis, and we have evaluated the sensitivity against the endocrine disruptor compound mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) in comparison to previous studies using rodent and human models. After 96 h of exposure in presence of 10 μM MEHP, chicken seminiferous tubules cultures present a structural alteration, a reduction in cell proliferation and in germ cells population. Apoptosis of germ and somatic cells increases in presence of 1 μM MEHP. Furthermore, MEHP does not affect inhibin B and lactate production by Sertoli cells. These results are in accordance with previous studies using rat, mice, or human culture of testicular cells and in similar range of exposures or even better sensitivity for some “end-points” (biological parameters). In conclusion, the establishment of this postnatal testicular cells culture could be considered as an alternative method to in vivo experiments frequently used for evaluating the impact on the terrestrial wildlife species. This method could be also complementary to mammal model due to the limiting number of animals used and its elevated sensitivity.     

Histopathological lesions and DNA adducts in the liver of European flounder (Platichthys flesus) collected in the Seine estuary versus two reference estuarine systems on the French Atlantic coast

An epidemiological survey was conducted in the Seine estuary and in two smaller and relatively preserved estuaries on the French Atlantic coast in order to estimate the occurrence of liver lesions in European flounder, Platichthys flesus, and also to seek putative risk factors for the recorded pathologies. Four hundred and seventy-eight fish of both sexes and of different size ranges were sampled in the three studied areas, 338 of which in the Seine estuary. All fish were examined for histopathological liver lesions, while DNA adducts and otoliths were analyzed on a subsample. Five categories of hepatic lesions were recorded with the following prevalence for the Seine estuary: 36.7 % inflammations, 8 % parasites (mainly encysted nematodes), 6.5 % foci of cellular alteration (FCA), 5.3 % foci of necrosis or regeneration (FNR), and 1.5 % tumors. Inflammation occurrence increased according to age, contrary to parasitic infestations and FCA which were more prevalent in young fish, notably those of <1 year old (group 0). Tumors were only observed in females of more than two winters. Females exhibited a higher prevalence of tumors (3.0 %) and FCA (6.5 %) than males (0 and 2.6 %, respectively). Parasitic and infectious lesions and FNR were equally distributed in males and females. The prevalence of FNR was also shown to vary according to sampling season, with significantly more occurrences of liver necrosis in the fish collected in summer than in spring. Spatial differences were observed with a higher occurrence of encysted parasites in flounders from the upper Seine estuary, while inflammations predominated in flounders living downstream. Temporal trends were also noted, with an increased prevalence of parasitic infestations, inflammations, and FCA in the 2002–2003 period in comparison to the 1996–1997 one. The three flounder populations from the Seine estuary (Normandy), Ster estuary (Brittany), and Bay of Veys (Normandy) showed different spectra of hepatic lesions. Flounders from the Bay of Veys had relatively few liver lesions as compared to flounders from the two other estuaries. Flounders from the Ster estuary exhibited the highest prevalence of parasites (37.2 %) and inflammations (51.1 %). Finally, FCA and liver tumors occurred at very similar levels in both flounder populations from the Seine and the Ster estuaries. Group 0 flounders inhabiting the upper Seine estuary were more prone to parasitic and pre-neoplastic hepatic lesions and had higher levels of liver DNA adducts than the older ones living downstream. It was postulated that group 0 European flounders may serve as valuable bioindicators for assessing the quality of estuarine waters and the health status of euryhaline fish populations.