Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Availability of 99Tc in undisturbed soil cores

Models for safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories need accurate values of the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides. In oxidizing environments, (99)Tc is expected to occur as pertechnetate ((99)TcO(4)(-)). Due to its high mobility, leaching of this element in the field might be important, potentially affecting the reliability of estimated transfer parameters of (99)Tc as measured in closed experimental systems such as hydroponics or pot experiments. The aim of this experiment was to measure the leaching of (99)Tc in undisturbed irrigated soil cores under cultivation as well as plant uptake and to study the possible competition between the two transfer pathways. Undisturbed soil cores (50 x 50 cm) were sampled from a Rendzic Leptosol (R), a colluvial Fluvic Cambisol (F) and a Dystric Cambisol (D) using PVC tubes (three cores sampled per soil type). Each core was equipped with a leachate collector at the bottom, allowing the monitoring of (99)Tc leaching through the cores. Cores were placed in a greenhouse and maize (Zea mays L., cv. DEA, Pioneer) was sown. After 135 d, maize was harvested and radioactivity determined in both plant and water samples. Results showed that during the growing period, leaching of (99)Tc was limited, due to the high evapotranspiration rate of maize. After harvest, leaching of (99)Tc went on because of the absence of evapotranspiration. Effective uptake (EU) of (99)Tc in leaves and grains was calculated. EU reached 70% of the input in the leaves and was not significantly different among soils. These results confirmed those obtained from pot experiments, even though leaching was allowed to occur in close-to-reality hydraulical conditions. As a consequence, it was concluded that pot experiments are an adequate surrogate for more complex "close-to-reality" experimental systems for measuring transfer factors.     

Evaluation of Rio Grande Management Alternatives Using a Surface‐Water/Ground‐Water Model1

Abstract: Previous investigations observed significant seepage losses from the Rio Grande to the shallow aquifer between Socorro and San Antonio, New Mexico. High‐resolution telescopic modeling was used along a 10‐km reach of the Rio Grande and associated drains and canals to evaluate several management alternatives aimed at improving river conveyance efficiency. Observed data consisted of ground‐water and surface‐water elevations, seepage rates along the Rio Grande and associated canals and drains, and borehole geology. Model calibration was achieved by adjusting hydraulic conductivity and specific storage until the output matched observed data. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the system was responsive to changes in hydrogeologic properties, especially when such alterations increased vertical connectivity between layers. The calibrated model predicted that removal of the low flow conveyance channel, a major channel draining the valley, would not only decrease river seepage by 67%, but also decrease total flow through the reach by 75%. The decreased flow through the reach would result in increased water logging and an average increase in ground‐water elevations of 1.21 meter. Simulations of the system with reduced riparian evapotranspiration rates or a relocated river channel also predicted decreased river seepage, but to a much lesser degree.     

SEMI-INFINITE SOLID MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF TEMPERATURE IN DEEP RESERVOIRS AND LAKES1

ABSTRACT: A lake or reservoir, heated mainly through the air-water interface, is visualized as a solid which is bounded by the interface plane (x = 0) and extends to infinity in the positive x-direction. Analytical expressions give the surface temperature, the temperature profile (with depth) and the position of the thermocline as a function of time (Julian Day). Preliminary model results indicate that the general shape of the temperature profile and the position of the thermocline are influenced primarily by the air-water heat exchange and the time lapse since an isothermal condition existed in the water body.     

The effect of aldicarb on nematode population and its persistence in carrots,soil and hydroponic solution

Abstract

Aldicarb, Temik^® 15 G, was incorporated in furrows at 3.37 and 6.73 kg ai (active ingredent)/ha and carrots (Caucus carota L.) were directly seeded on the same day. The numbers of nematode larvae were significantly suppressed in the treated plots; averages were 249, 74, and 51/ 50 cc soil samples for control (0), 3.37 and 6.73 kg ai/ha, respectively. Aldicarb treatment resulted in a 28% yield increase as compared to the untreated. Aldicarb residue in carrots was 28 ppb for the low treatment and 46 ppb for the high. Residual levels in soil of high treatment declined from 6l to 31 ppb during two weeks prior to harvest, meanwhile, those in the low decreased slightly from 13 to 12 ppb. Carrots placed in hydroponic solution containing aldicarb 14.5 ppm for 6 days, had an aldicarb residue of 10.26 ppb and the hydroponic solution, 2.7 ppb. Persistence of aldicarb residue was in carrot > in soil > in hydroponic solution.     

ESP Bus Section Failures: Design Considerations

This paper addresses a common operation and maintenance problem encountered with sectionalized electrostatic precipitators—bus section failure. ESPs are normally designed to meet a specific minimum collection efficiency in order to comply with emission standards; the loss of several bus sections may cause the unit to be out of compliance. In this paper, the effect of bus section failure on precipitator performance is analyzed. The study is presented in two parts. First, a simplified procedure to estimate the effect of bus section failure on the overall collection efficiency is developed. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the use of the technique. Secondly—and this is the main thrust of this study—the technique is extended to include calculations on whether a unit is out of compliance due to the failure of a given number of bus sections. This development clearly shows that this latter effect can only be expressed in terms of a probability. Two additional examples, based on a field unit using actual test data, complement the presentation and illustrate this probability calculation.     

Flexibility of X-Ray Emission Spectrography as Adapted to Microanalysis of Air Pollutants

Methods previously published by this laboratory for analyzing thin dust coatings of airborne particulates have been further evaluated, as applied to vast air pollution surveys. It was demonstrated that choice of glass fiber filters adapted to high-volume samplers restricts the analysis to a limited number of elements, such as lead. More flexibility and versatility are attained through the use of organic membrane filters mounted in small plastic monitors which permit multi-elemental analysis at least as accurately as with other popular but time-consuming techniques. These qualities of speed and accuracy allow shorter intervals of sampling which are normally required for better statistical assessment of broad air pollution surveys. Sensitivity of the technique reaches a value close to 0.05 μg/m³, while time of analysis required is about five minutes per element after receipt of the sample.     

Demographic performance predicts invasiveness of species in the Commelinaceae under high-nutrient conditions.

Demographic models are powerful tools for making predictions about the relative importance of transitions from one life stage (e.g., seeds) to another (e.g., nonreproductives); however, they have never been used to compare the relative performance of invasive and noninvasive taxa. I use demographic models parameterized from common garden experiments to develop hypotheses about the role of different life stage transitions in determining differences in performance in invasive and noninvasive congeners in the Commelinaceae. I also extended nested life table response experiment (LTRE) analyses to accommodate interactions between nested and unnested factors. Invasive species outperformed their noninvasive congeners, especially under high-nutrient conditions. This difference in performance did not appear to be due to differences in elasticities of vital rates, but rather to differences in the magnitude of stage transitions. Self-compatible invasive species had greater fecundity in high-nutrient environments and a shorter time to first reproduction, and all invasive species had greater vegetative reproduction than their noninvasive congeners. Thus greater opportunism in sexual and asexual reproduction explained the greater performance of invasive species under high-nutrient conditions. Similar common garden experiments could become a useful tool to predict potential invaders from pools of potential introductions. I show that short-term and controlled experiments considering multiple nutrient environments may accurately predict invasiveness of nonnative plant species.     

Variety of technological trajectories in low emission vehicles (LEVs): A patent data analysis

This paper focuses on the diversity of engine technologies for low emission vehicles (LEVs) that are developed by car manufacturers in order to substitute for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Our purpose is to analyse the competition between the various technologies for LEVs as well as the innovative strategy of car manufacturers. We first propose to define and to represent these technological trajectories in order to compare their performances and to identify their strengths and weaknesses. The technological bottlenecks, the barriers to the adoption of these alternative engine technologies as well as the features of this technological competition are underlined. We then use a patent data analysis to study the patent portfolios of the main car manufacturers in these technologies over the period [1990–2005]. The dynamics of patent applications by car manufacturers gives insight on the competition among technologies and on the strategy of firms. This analysis emphasises the progressive diversification of firms' patent portfolios over the whole set of engine technologies and the differentiated strategic positioning of car manufacturers according to countries.