Using Regression Tree Analysis to Improve Predictions of Low-Flow Nitrate and Chloride in Willamette River Basin Watersheds

The use of regression tree analysis is examined as a tool to evaluate hydrologic and land use factors that affect nitrate and chloride stream concentrations during low-flow conditions. Although this data mining technique has been used to assess a range of ecological parameters, it has not previously been used for stream water quality analysis. Regression tree analysis was conducted on nitrate and chloride data from 71 watersheds in the Willamette River Basin to determine whether this method provides a greater predictive ability compared to standard multiple linear regression, and to elucidate the potential roles of controlling mechanisms. Metrics used in the models included a variety of watershed-scale landscape indices and land use classifications. Regression tree analysis significantly enhanced model accuracy over multiple linear regression, increasing nitrate R ² values from 0.38 to 0.75 and chloride R ² values from 0.64 to 0.85 and as indicated by the ΔAIC value. These improvements are primarily attributed to the ability for regression trees to more effectively handle interactions and manage non-linear functions associated with watershed heterogeneity within the basin. Whereas hydrologic factors governed the conservative chloride tracer in the model, land use dominated control of nitrate concentrations. Watersheds containing higher agricultural activity did not necessarily yield high nitrate concentrations, but agricultural areas combined with either small proportions of forested land or greater urbanization generated nitrate levels far exceeding water quality standards. Although further refinements are recommended, we conclude that regression tree analysis presents water resource managers a promising tool that improves on the predictive ability of standard statistical methods, provides insight into controlling mechanisms, and helps identify catchment characteristics associated with water quality impairment.     

Warfare in Biodiversity Hotspots

Abstract:  Conservation efforts are only as sustainable as the social and political context within which they take place. The weakening or collapse of sociopolitical frameworks during wartime can lead to habitat destruction and the erosion of conservation policies, but in some cases, may also confer ecological benefits through altered settlement patterns and reduced resource exploitation. Over 90% of the major armed conflicts between 1950 and 2000 occurred within countries containing biodiversity hotspots, and more than 80% took place directly within hotspot areas. Less than one-third of the 34 recognized hotspots escaped significant conflict during this period, and most suffered repeated episodes of violence. This pattern was remarkably consistent over these 5 decades. Evidence from the war-torn Eastern Afromontane hotspot suggests that biodiversity conservation is improved when international nongovernmental organizations support local protected area staff and remain engaged throughout the conflict. With biodiversity hotspots concentrated in politically volatile regions, the conservation community must maintain continuous involvement during periods of war, and biodiversity conservation should be incorporated into military, reconstruction, and humanitarian programs in the world's conflict zones.     

Rethinking the management of transboundary freshwater resources: a critical examination of modern international law and practice

Available freshwater stocks are being depleted and impaired on a widespread basis, with acute shortages an increasingly frequent condition in arid climates. In transboundary basins, water scarcity and pollution compound interstate tension and contribute to human suffering and ecological damage. This article provides theoretical perspectives on shared freshwater disputes and on the evolution of the international law of shared water resources. It argues that the UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (ratified by some countries, but not yet in force) is inadequate as a framework convention in terms of providing general obligations on the future parties or an institutional framework for future action. The paper suggests that three critical concepts be considered in future management of shared water resources: (1) the unitary character of watersheds (where the absence of extra-basin diversions allows); (2) joint or "communitarian" watershed management; and (3) the relevance of international trade to alleviating regional food stress, resulting from local water scarcity. Finally, it proposes the establishment of an international advisory body on shared water disputes, modelled after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose role is codified in the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

Errors in representing regional acid deposition with spatially sparse monitoring: Case studies of the eastern US using model predictions

The current study uses case studies of model-predicted regional precipitation and wet ion deposition over 5-year periods to estimate errors in corresponding regional values derived from the means of site-specific values within regions of interest located in the eastern US. The mean of model-predicted site-specific values for sites within each region was found generally to overestimate the corresponding model-predicted regional wet ion deposition. On an annual basis across four regions in the eastern US, these overestimates of regional wet ion deposition were typically between 5 and 25% and may be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Corresponding overestimates of regional precipitation were typically <5%, but may be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Period-to-period relative changes determined from the mean of site-based model-predicted wet deposition for the current regional ensembles of sites generally estimated larger beneficial effects of pollutant emissions reductions in comparison to changes based on model-predicted regional wet deposition. On an annual basis site-based relative changes were generally biased low compared to regional relative changes: differences were typically <7%, but they may also be more exaggerated for individual seasons. Spatial heterogeneities of the wet ion deposition fields with respect to the sparse monitoring site locations prevented the monitoring sites considered in the current study from providing regionally representative results. Monitoring site locations considered in the current study over-represent the geographical areas subject to both high emissions and high wet ion deposition and under-represent the geographical areas subject to low emissions and low wet deposition. Since the current case studies consider only those eastern US site locations that have supported concurrent wet and dry deposition monitoring, similar errors may be expected for dry and total deposition using results from the same monitoring site locations. Current case study results illustrate the approximate range of potential errors and suggest caution when inferring regional acid deposition from a network of sparse monitoring sites.     

NITROGEN ACCUMULATION IN A CONSTRUCTED WETLAND FOR DAIRY WASTEWATER TREATMENT1

ABSTRACT: A free water surface (FWS) constructed wetland was installed at a dairy in Glendale, Arizona, to study the potential of such a wetland to remove nitrogen (N) from wastewater. The study objectives were: (1) to determine N removal from the wastewater, and (2) to evaluate N accumulation in soil and plant tissues. The system consisted of eight cells (70 × 9 × 1.5 m) planted with Typha domingensis, Scirpus validus, and Phragmites australis. The four cells in series were lined with plastic, and the four cells in a parallel series were lined with clay. Cells received approximately 180 m³/d of partially treated dairy effluent. Plant tissues and soil samples were collected above and below ground from 24 locations during one year. Total N removal from wastewater was about 17 percent. Clay‐lined cells accumulated more N in the soil and less N in plant biomass compared with plastic lined cells. Plant biomass accounted for approximately 60 percent of total N accumulated in cells with dense plant communities. Ninety percent of accumulated soil N was organic. Total N accumulated in soil reached a maximum (1,100 mg/kg) eight months after the introduction of wastewater.     

Leachate characteristics,dry matter yield of Urochloa decumbens and properties of two contrasting soils irrigated with sludgewater in columns

Increasing demands on freshwater and challenges in disposal of wastewaters encourage their use for irrigation. The study evaluated the effects of irrigation of signal grass (Urochloa decumbens) with sludgewater on leaching, uptake and retention of a range of elements in two contrasting soils in columns. The grass was grown on a sandy loam and a clay soil packed in plastic columns and irrigated for 119 days with either undiluted, diluted sludgewater or tap water. The sludgewater had a pH of 6.9 and high aluminum (Al), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), and boron (B). Analyses were conducted on leachates, above-ground plant biomass (two harvests), and soils at the end of the experiment. Sludgewater treatments increased grass biomass yield and uptake of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), and magnesium (Mg) in both soils with a greater nutrient uptake from the clay than the sandy loam. The application of sludgewater increased Mn and reduced P (sandy loam only) in the leachate with no effects on Al, Fe, or B. Uptake of Al, Fe, and B was increased by sludgewater application. Even when diluted, the sludgewater increased extractable Mn, particularly in the clay soil. The findings showed that irrigation of the soils with sludgewater increased Mn and B concentrations and uptake by signal grass, with no negative effects on biomass production. Leaching and accumulation in the soils of toxic elements were minimal in the short term. Sludgewater can therefore be used to grow signal grass in both soils although these effects need to be evaluated under field conditions.     

Practical actions for applied systematic conservation planning

Systematic conservation planning is intended to inform spatially explicit decision making. Doing so requires that it be integrated into complex regulatory and governance processes, and there are limited instances where this has been achieved effectively. South Africa is a global leader in the application of conservation plans, the outputs of which are widely used for spatial planning and decision making in many spheres of government. We aimed to determine how conservation planning in the country progressed from theory to implementation, and to identify practical actions that enabled this transition, by assessing temporal trends in the characteristics of conservation plans (1990–2017, n = 94). Since 2010 conservation planning has entered an operational period characterized by government leadership of plans, administrative rather than ecological planning domains, decreasing size of planning units, increasing emphasis on end-user products, and scheduled revision of plans. Key actions that enabled this progression include transitioning leadership of plans from scientists to practitioners, building capacity within implementing agencies, creating opportunities to integrate plans in legislative processes, establishing a strong community of practice, adopting implementation-focused methods, and balancing standardization with innovation. Learning from this model will allow other countries, particularly those with a similar megadiverse, developing context, to operationalize conservation planning into spatial planning and decision making.