Statistical models for evaluating suspected artefacts in long-term environmental monitoring data

Long-term water quality monitoring is of high value for environmental management as well as for research. Artificial level shifts in time series due to method improvements, flaws in laboratory practices or changes in laboratory are a common limitation for analysis, which, however, are often ignored. Statistical estimation of such artefacts is complicated by the simultaneous existence of trends, seasonal variation and effects of other influencing factors, such as weather conditions. Here, we investigate the performance of generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to simultaneously identify one or more artefacts associated with artificial level shifts, longitudinal effects related to temporal trends and seasonal variation, as well as to model the serial correlation structure of the data. In the same model, it is possible to estimate separate residual variances for different periods so as to identify if artefacts not only influence the mean level but also the dispersion of a series. Even with an appropriate statistical methodology, it is difficult to quantify artificial level shifts and make appropriate adjustments to the time series. The underlying temporal structure of the series is especially important. As long as there is no prominent underlying trend in the series, the shift estimates are rather stable and show less variation. If an artificial shift occurs during a slower downward or upward tendency, it is difficult to separate these two effects and shift estimates can be both biased and have large variation. In the case of a change in method or laboratory, we show that conducting the analyses with both methods in parallel strongly improves estimates of artefact effects on the time series, even if certain problems remain. Due to the difficulties of estimating artificial level shifts, posterior adjustment is problematic and can lead to time series that no longer can be used for trend analysis or other analysis based on the longitudinal structure of the series. Before carrying out a change in analytic method or laboratory, it should be considered if this is absolutely necessary. If changes cannot be avoided, the analysis of the two methods considered, or the two laboratories contracted, should be run in parallel for a considerable period of time so as to enable a good assessment of changes introduced to the data series.     

Offshore windmill farms: threats to or possibilities for the marine environment

A massive development of offshore windmill farms has been planned along the European coastline. This raises important questions about the possible effects on the marine environment. Effects during the construction period may be minimized to a negligible impact if care is taken to avoid areas containing rare habitats or species. Disturbance caused by noise, vibrations, and electromagnetic fields during windmill operation may, with present knowledge, be considered to be of minor importance to the marine environment. The reef effect (i.e. addition of a hard substratum), is believed to cause the largest impact on the marine environment and at different scales: the micro scale, which involves material, texture, and heterogeneity of the foundation material; the meso scale, which involves the revetments and scour protection; and the macro scale, which encompasses the level of the entire windmill farm. Effects on these scales are discussed in relation to results obtained from natural habitats, artificial reefs, and other man-made constructions at sea.     

Sorption, desorption and mineralisation of the herbicides glyphosate and MCPA in samples from two Danish soil and subsurface profiles

The vertical distribution of the sorption, desorption and mineralisation of glyphosate and MCPA was examined in samples from two contrasting soil and subsurface profiles, obtained from a sandy agricultural site and a non-agricultural clay rich site. The highest mineralisation of [14C-methylen]glyphosate, with 9.3-14.7% degraded to 14CO2 within 3 months was found in the deepest sample from the clay site. In the deeper parts of the sandy profile high sorption and low desorption of glyphosate coincided with no or minor mineralisation indicating a limited glyphosate bioavailability. MCPA was readily mineralised except in the deepest samples from both sites. The highest MCPA mineralisation was detected just below the surface layers with 72% or 44% degraded to 14CO2 at the sandy or the clay sites, respectively. MCPA sorped to a minor extent in all samples and no indications of sorption-controlled mineralisation was revealed. None of the herbicides were mineralised under anoxic conditions.     

Effects of wildfire on runoff generating processes in northern Mongolia

Regional Environmental Change - Seasonal runoff generation in a headwater (~100 km2) of the mountainous Sugnugr Basin, situated within the discontinuous permafrost zone of...     

Response of the grasshopper <Emphasis Type="Italic">Myrmeleotettix maculatus</Emphasis> (Orthoptera: Acrididae) to invasion by the exotic moss <Emphasis Type="Italic">Campylopus introflexus</Emphasis> in acidic coastal dunes

In Europe, acidic coastal dunes are threatened by the invasion of the exotic moss Campylopus introflexus. While the effect of the moss encroachment on the vegetation is well analysed, knowledge of possible impact on arthropods is lacking. Thus, an experiment was conducted in acidic coastal dunes on the Baltic island of Hiddensee, Germany. Myrmeleotettix maculatus, a common Orthoptera species of open and dry habitats, was sampled by pitfall trapping in eleven plots invaded by C. introflexus and in eleven native, non-invaded plots rich in lichens. Overall, 826 individuals of M. maculatus were captured (266 nymphs, 560 adults). Mean number of adults was significantly higher in native plots. This maybe explained by a higher proportion of grasses (food supply), a higher availability of shelter (from predators, weather), or more favourable microclimate conditions in native plots and a higher mortality rate in invaded plots. However, mean number of both young and old nymphs did not differ significantly between both types. This could imply that invaded areas at least serve as favourable oviposition sites and larval habitats. The observed negative effect of the moss invasion on M. maculatus remains to be studied on other arthropods.