Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Global sensitivity analysis of a process-based model for ammonia emissions from manure storage and treatment structures

The development of process-based models to estimate ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations (AFOSs) is sought to replace costly and time-consuming direct measurements. Critical to process-based model development is conducting sensitivity analysis to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output. Global and relative sensitivity analyses were applied to a process-based model for predicting ammonia emissions from the surface of anaerobic lagoons for treating and storing manure. The objectives were to compare global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to relative (local) sensitivity analysis (RSA) on a process-based model for ammonia emissions. Based on the first-order coefficient, both GSA and RSA showed the model input parameters in order of importance in process model for ammonia emissions from lagoon surfaces were: (i) pH, (ii) lagoon liquid temperature, (iii) wind speed above the lagoon surface, and (iv) the concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen in the lagoon. The GSA revealed that interactions between model parameters accounted for over two-thirds of the model variance, a result that cannot be achieved using traditional RSA. Also, the GSA showed that parameter interactions involving liquid pH had more impact on the model output variance than the single parameters: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, or (iii) total ammoniacal nitrogen. This study demonstrates that GSA provides a more complete analysis of model input parameters and their interactions on the model output compared to RSA. A comprehensive tutorial regarding the application of GSA to a process model is presented.     

Effects of Washington, D.C. law on drivers' hand-held cell phone use

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of Washington, D.C. law prohibiting drivers' use of hand-held cell phones on such use. METHODS: Daytime observations of drivers were conducted at signalized intersections in D.C. in March 2004, several months before the law took effect on July 1, 2004, and again in October 2004. As a comparison, observations also were conducted in areas of Virginia and Maryland located close to the D.C. border. Maryland and Virginia placed no limitations on drivers' phone use. Use was observed for 36,091 vehicles in D.C., 25,151 vehicles in Maryland, and 28,483 vehicles in Virginia. RESULTS: The rate of talking on hand-held cell phones among drivers in D.C. declined significantly from 6.1% before the law to 3.5% after. Phone use declined slightly in Maryland and increased significantly in Virginia so that, relative to the patterns of hand-held phone use in the two states, phone use in D.C. declined 50%. Hand-held phone use in D.C. declined comparably among drivers of vehicles registered in all three jurisdictions. D.C. police issued 2,556 citations and 1,232 warnings for cell phone violations during July-November 2004. There were spates of media coverage when the law was passed and when it took effect. CONCLUSIONS: D.C.'s law prohibiting drivers' hand-held phone use had a strong effect on such use among drivers in D.C. Without ongoing publicized enforcement of the law, long-term compliance may be difficult to achieve.     

Sleepiness among night-time drivers: relationship to blood alcohol concentration and other factors

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the distribution and correlates of subjective sleepiness among the general night-time driving population. METHODS: The survey took place in three British Columbia communities in June 2003 between 21:00 hours to 03:00 hours. Sites and vehicles were selected randomly. Surveyors obtained information on several demographic and situational variables including self-assessed degree of sleepiness and self-reported hours asleep and awake, as well as an objective measure of blood alcohol concentration obtained from a hand-held breath-testing device. RESULTS: The total compliance rate among intercepted drivers was 85%. Among the 2335 drivers responding to the questionnaire, 68.4% indicated that they were wide awake, 27.6% were somewhat sleepy, and 4.1% were very sleepy. Logistic regression quantified the independent contributions of the various factors to subjective sleepiness. Male drivers with positive blood alcohol concentrations under 50 mg% were more likely to report feeling sleepy than those with either higher or with zero blood alcohol concentration. Greater relative risk of sleepiness was also associated with being female, being under age 55, and advanced hour of night. Driving with passengers of the same gender was associated with lower reported sleepiness. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of night-time drivers are driving while sleepy, especially at late night and early morning hours. The combination of alcohol and sleepiness compounds impairment in experimental studies and deserves greater attention in crash risk studies and as a topic for public education and awareness.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of a logger safety training program

INTRODUCTION: Logger safety training programs are rarely, if ever, evaluated as to their effectiveness in reducing injuries. METHOD: Workers' compensation claim rates were used to evaluate the effectiveness of a logger safety training program, the West Virginia Loggers' Safety Initiative (LSI). RESULTS: There was no claim rate decline detected in the majority (67%) of companies that participated in all 4 years of the LSI. Furthermore, their rate did not differ from the rest of the WV logging industry that did not participate in the LSI. Worker turnover was significantly related to claim rates; companies with higher turnover of employees had higher claim rates. Companies using feller bunchers to harvest trees at least part of the time had a significantly lower claim rate than companies not using them. Companies that had more inspections per year had lower claim rates. CONCLUSIONS: High injury rates persist even in companies that receive safety training; high employee turnover may affect the efficacy of training programs. The logging industry should be encouraged to facilitate the mechanization of logging tasks, to address barriers to employee retention, and to increase the number of in-the-field performance monitoring inspections. Impact on industry There are many states whose logger safety programs include only about 4-8 hours of safe work practices training. These states may look to West Virginia's expanded training program (the LSI) as a model for their own programs. However, the LSI training may not be reaching loggers due to the delay in administering training to new employees and high levels of employee turnover. Regardless of training status, loggers' claim rates decline significantly the longer they work for a company. It may be that high injury rates in the state of West Virginia would be best addressed by finding ways to encourage and facilitate companies to become more mechanized in their harvesting practices, and to increase employee tenure. Increasing the number of yearly performance inspections may also be a venue to reduce claim rates. Future research could investigate in better detail the working conditions of West Virginia loggers and identify barriers to job tenure, particularly for workers whose primary job task is chainsaw operation. A larger-scale study of the effect of performance monitoring inspections on claim rates is also warranted.     

Control chart for monitoring occupational asthma

INTRODUCTION: Work-related asthma has become the most prevalent occupational respiratory disease in the developed world. Occupational asthma is thought to affect 5%-10% of people worldwide. The first step in the diagnosis of occupational asthma is to establish work-relatedness. Although considerable research has been conducted in the area of occupational asthma, no simple, effective, and statistically sound method has been developed that can be used as an initial step to effectively identify the workers at risk for occupational asthma. The purpose of this research was to investigate whether Shewhart control chart method can be used as an effective method to detect occupational asthma. METHOD: Forty-five workers who completed the study and provided usable peak expiratory flow (a lung function marker) recordings while at work and away from work were included in this study. Control charts were developed using Shewhart's Method. The lower control limit of at work control chart (LCL(W)) was compared to each subject's Personal Best (PB) value. RESULTS: Reviewing the results of this comparison showed LCL(W)<60% PB to have a sensitivity of 85.71%, specificity of 87.50%, and an error rate of 13.33%. When the subjects suspected for false positive and false negative diagnoses were identified, the test produced a sensitivity of 95.24%, a specificity of 95.83% and an error rate of 4.44%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were as good as, and in some cases better than, published clinical guidelines. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our research showed that the control chart method is an effective, simple, and inexpensive tool for early intervention in workers suspected for occupational asthma.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Characteristics and risks of drivers with low annual distance driven

OBJECTIVES: It has been noted by several authors that risk (defined only in terms of total expected numbers of crash involvements per total distance driven) paints a misleading picture of crash liability, particularly for the young and the old, as their high risk is associated with risky driving patterns typical of people who drive low annual kms. This article sets out to analyze these driving patterns of low-km drivers and to evaluate the risk of these patterns. As licensing programs tend to focus on young and old drivers, who tend to drive lower annual distances, income and employment data are also analyzed for low-km drivers. This is to provide a better picture for policy makers of the sort of people and the sorts of transportation requirements that their policies may affect. METHODS: Crash data and travel data were disaggregated by driver characteristics and by driving conditions (road type, day and night, weekend and weekday) and combined to form estimates of risk for typical driving patterns of driver groups. Characteristics of driving patterns and of the drivers themselves were derived for groups defined by age and by the amount of annual driving undertaken. RESULTS: Older drivers who drive less tend to have higher risk per km mainly due to their predominantly urban trips. Nevertheless, because older drivers on average manage to reduce their risk per distance driven by choosing driving patterns that are safer than the driving patterns of other age groups, the risk of older drivers as a group is not overestimated. CONCLUSION: Despite being quite different from one another, the low- and high-km driving patterns of younger drivers were found to impose identical risks.