Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Application of cryofocusing hydride generation and atomic fluorescence detection for dissolved mercury species determination in natural water samples

The concentration levels of mercury (Hg) species in natural water samples are usually low. Consequently, accurate analysis with low detection limits is still a major problem. In this work, a method was applied for the simultaneous direct determination of dissolved mercury species in water samples by on-line hydride generation (HG), cryogenic trapping (CT), gas chromatography (GC) and detection by atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS). The suitability of the method for real samples with different organic matter and chloride contents was evaluated by recovery experiments in synthetic and natural spiked water samples. The HG method was compared with other current available methods for mercury analysis with respect to the different fraction of mercury analysed, i.e. 'reactive', 'reducible' or total. HG derivatization and SnCl2 reduction (with and without previous oxidation with BrCl) were applied to synthetic and natural (spiked and non-spiked) water samples. The influence of chloride and dissolved organic matter concentrations was studied. The results suggest that the HG procedure is suitable for the simultaneous determination of Hg2+ and MeHg+ in surface water samples. Inorganic mercury analysed by HG (i.e. reducible) is close to the total inorganic mercury.     

Cadmium and zinc source assessment in the Sepetiba Bay and basin region

Industrial and weathering inputs of Cd and Zn to the Sepetiba Bay and basin were assessed, based on production parameters obtained from local environment and industry authorities, and literature data. The results are compared with similar evaluations from other coastal regions and field data obtained in measuring Zn and Cd transport by rivers, direct run-off and atmospheric deposition in the region. Cadmium and zinc inputs to the bay increased by three orders of magnitude relative to pre-industrial fluxes and presently reach up to 1.6 and 180 tonnes per year for Cd and Zn, respectively, which represents a large input-to-area ratio, and explains the high concentration of these metals previously reported in the estuarine biota and sediments of Sepetiba Bay. Industrial activities, mainly metallurgical and chemical, comprise 94% and 84% of the total Cd and Zn inputs to the Bay. This figure identifies the point sources as being responsible for the environmental contamination and for regional poisoning risks.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

Multivariate analysis of the bioaccumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the marine pelagic food web from the southern part of the Baltic Sea,Poland

The concentration, pattern, bioaccumulation and biomagnification features of many chlorobiphenyl congeners including non- and mono-ortho chlorine substituted members have been determined in a pelagic food chain including mixed phyto- and zooplankton, herring (Clupea harengus), harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) and black cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) collected from the southern part of the Baltic Proper. TCDD (tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin) toxic equivalents (TEQs) in plankton, herring, harbour porpoise and cormorants were 0.42, 5.3, 79 and 2,700 pg g(-1) lipid weight, respectively. Concentrations of total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in plankton, herring, harbour porpoise and cormorants were 1.9, 120, 8700 and 2,100 ng g(-1) wet weight (210, 1,300, 10,000 and 42,000 ng g(-1) lipid weight) respectively. Herring, harbour porpoise and black cormorant apparently bioaccumulate many PCBs found in their food, and the values of the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) for PCBs were approximately 10 in herring, 35 in harbour porpoise and up to 300 in breast muscle of cormorants. Harbour porpoise clearly is able to metabolize the most toxic non-ortho PCBs (no. 77, 126 and 169) and a few mono-ortho PCBs (no. 114, 123 and 156), while all non- and mono-ortho PCBs are bioaccumulated by herring. Penta-, hexa- and hepta-CBs were the dominatant homologue classes both in the muscle tissue and liver. PCB congeners nos. 201, 209, 172/192, 194 and 195 were characterized by the largest BAFs (between 100 and 300). Principal component analysis has been used to analyse the interdependences and differences in the CB congener accumulation patterns between the components of the investigated pelagic food web.     

Control of rumen methanogenesis

During the last decades, considerable research on methane production in the rumen and its inhibition has been carried out. Initially, as methane production represents a significant loss of gross energy in the feed (2–15%), the ultimate goal of such intervention in rumen fermentation was an increase in feed efficiency. A second reason favouring research on methane inhibition is its role in the global warming phenomenon and in the destruction of the ozone layer. In this review, the authors describe briefly several interventions for reducing methane emission by ruminants. The objective can be reached by intervention at the dietary level by ration manipulation (composition, feeding level) or by the use of additives or supplements. Examples of additives are polyhalogenated compounds, ionophores and other antibiotics. Supplementation of the ration with lipids also lowered methanogenesis. More biotechnological interventions, e.g., defaunation, probiotics and introduction of reductive acetogenesis in the rumen, are also mentioned. It can be concluded that drastic inhibition of methane production is not unequivocally successful as a result of several factors, such as: instantaneous inhibition often followed by restoration of methanogenesis due to adaptation of the microbes or degradation of the additive, toxicity for the host animal, negative effects on overall digestion and productive performance. Therefore, methanogenesis and its inhibition cannot be considered as a separate part of rumen fermentation and its consequences on the animal should be taken into account.     

The analysis of monitoring data with the aid of time-series analysis

Methods derived from time-series analysis are proposed for processing monitoring data. The necessity for the use of these methods is demonstrated. In a case study time-series analysis was applied to assess the impact of the closure of the Grevelingen estuary (S. W. Netherlands) in 1971 on a local wintering population of Oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) in the adjacent Oosterschelde estuary.Communication No. 328 of the Delta Institute for Hydrobiological Research.