On the front conditions for gravity currents in channels of general cross-section

We consider the propagation of a high-Reynolds-number gravity current in a horizontal channel with general cross-section whose width is \(f(z), 0 \le z\le H\), and the gravity acceleration g acts in \(-z\) direction. (The classical rectangular cross-section is covered by the particular case \(f(z) =\) const.) We assume a two-layer system of homogeneous fluids of constant densities \(\rho _{c}\) (current, of height \(h < H \)) and smaller \(\rho _{a}\) (ambient, filling the remaining part of the channel). We focus attention on the calculation and assessment of the nose Froude-number condition \(Fr = U/(g' h)^{1/2}\); here U is the speed of propagation of the current and \(g' = (\rho _{c}/\rho _{a}-1) g\) is the reduced gravity. We first revisit the steady-state current, and derive compact insightful expressions of Fr and energy dissipation as a function of \(\varphi \) (\(=\) area fraction occupied by the current in the cross-section). We show that the head loss \(\delta _0\) on the stagnation line is formally a degree of freedom in the determination of \(Fr(\varphi )\), and we clarify the strong connections with the head loss \(\delta \) in the ambient fluid, and with the overall rate of dissipation \(\dot{{\mathcal{D}}}\). We demonstrate that the closure \(\delta _0 = 0\) [suggested by Benjamin (J Fluid Mech 31, 209–248, 1968) for the rectangular cross-section] produces in general the smallest Fr for a given \(\varphi \); the results are valid for a significant range \([0, \varphi _{\max }]\), in which the current is dissipative, except for the point \(\varphi _{\max }\) where \(\delta = \dot{{\mathcal{D}}} = 0\). We show that imposing the closure \(\delta = \dot{{\mathcal{D}}} = 0\), which corresponds to an energy-conserving or non-dissipative current, produces in general unacceptable restrictions of the range of validity, and large values of Fr; in particular, deep currents (\(\varphi < 0.3\) say) must be excluded because they are inherently dissipative. On the other hand, the compromise closure \(\delta (\varphi ) =\delta _0(\varphi )\) produces the simple \(Fr(\varphi ) = \sqrt{2}(1 - \varphi )\) formula whose values and dissipation properties are very close, and the range of validity is identical, to these obtained with Benjamin’s closure (moreover, we show that this corresponds to circulation-conservation solutions). The results are illustrated for practical cross-section geometries (rectangle, \(\Delta \) and \(\nabla \) triangle, circle, and the general power-law \(f(z) = b z ^\alpha \) (\(b>0, \alpha \ge 0, 0< z \le H\)). Next, we investigate the connection of the steady-state results with the time-dependent current, and show that in a lock-released current the rate of dissipation of the system is equal to, or larger than, that obtained for Fr corresponding to the conditions at the nose of the current. The results and insights of this study cover a wide range of cross-section geometry and apply to both Boussinesq and non-Boussinesq systems; they reveal a remarkable robustness of Fr as a function of \(\varphi \).     

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Estimating abundance: a non parametric mark recapture approach for open and closed systems

We present a novel, non-parametric, frequentist approach for capture-recapture data based on a ratio estimator, which offers several advantages. First, as a non-parametric model, it does not require a known underlying distribution for parameters nor the associated assumptions, eliminating the need for post-hoc corrections or additional modeling to account for heterogeneity and other violated assumptions. Second, the model explicitly deals with dependence of trials by considering trials to be dependent; therefore, cluster sampling is handled naturally and additional adjustments are not necessary. Third, it accounts for ordering, utilizing the fact that a system with a small population will have a greater frequency of recaptures “early” in the survey work compared to an identical system with a larger population. We provide mathematical proof that our estimator attains asymptotic minimum variance under open systems. We apply the model to a data set of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and compare results to those from classic closed models. We show that the model has an impressive rate of convergence and demonstrate that there’s an inverse relationship between population size and the proportion of the population that need to be sampled, while achieving the same degree of accuracy for abundance estimates. The model is flexible and can apply to ecological situations as well as other situations that lend themselves to capture recapture sampling.     

Sparse PCA and investigation of multi-elements compositional repositories: theory and applications

The geochemistry of floodplain sediments is fundamental to monitor environmental changes and to quantify their contribution to natural and anthropic processes. A floodplain sediment composition is a vector of positive elements which sum to a fixed constant. The analysis of high-dimensional compositions requires methods that produce results involving only a small portion of the original variables. On the other hand, the analysis must take into account the additional constraints specific to compositions. With the purpose of studying these problems, a new procedure for sparse PCA is proposed on European floodplain sediment samples.     

Analysis and prediction of $$\mathrm{PM}_{10}$$ concentration levels in Tunisia using statistical learning approaches

Over the past years, the health impact of airborne particulate matter \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) has become a very topical subject. Thereby, a lot of research effort in the environmental sciences goes towards the modeling and the prediction of ambient \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) concentrations. In this paper, we are interested in the statistical classification of the daily mean \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) concentration in Tunisia according to the authority regulation. We consider two monitoring stations: a big industrial station and a traffic station. The main goal of this work is to determine the pertinent predictors of \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) concentration within a nonlinear multiclass framework. To do this, we used two popular statistical learning methods; the support vector machines (SVM) and the random forests (RF). The statistical results obtained on the real datasets, show that RF outperform SVM for the purpose of variable selection even with a reduced number of observations compared to the number of explicative variables. It was also demonstrated that the \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) concentration measured yesterday is the most relevant predictor of its present-day value. Moreover, we found that the more delayed values of \(\mathrm{PM}_{10}\) concentration may be crucial to get an accurate prediction.     

Vertical oil dispersion profile under non-breaking regular waves

An experimental program was conducted to investigate vertical oil dispersion of surface oil spills under non-breaking regular waves. The variation in oil concentration caused by oil dispersion in a water column was studied to determine the vertical oil dispersion profile. The experiments were performed using different waves characteristics for different volumes of oil spill to evaluate the variation in oil concentration at three depths at two sampling stations. The correlations between oil concentration and the main parameters of wave characteristics, oil spill volume, sampling depth, and distance of sampling stations to spill location were assessed. The results revealed that the trend of variation in oil concentration versus wave steepness is linear. The results obtained from experimental measurements indicated that the oil concentrations at mid-depth were 44–77 % and the concentrations near the flume bed were 12–33 % of the concentration near the water surface.     

Simulations of the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system,Indonesia

Large rivers often present a river–lake–delta system, with a wide range of temporal and spatial scales of the flow due to the combined effects of human activities and various natural factors, e.g., river discharge, tides, climatic variability, droughts, floods. Numerical models that allow for simulating the flow in these river–lake–delta systems are essential to study them and predict their evolution under the impact of various forcings. This is because they provide information that cannot be easily measured with sufficient temporal and spatial detail. In this study, we combine one-dimensional sectional-averaged (1D) and two-dimensional depth-averaged (2D) models, in the framework of the finite element model SLIM, to simulate the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system (Indonesia). The 1D model representing the Mahakam River and four tributaries is coupled to the 2D unstructured mesh model implemented on the Mahakam Delta, the adjacent Makassar Strait, and three lakes in the central part of the river catchment. Using observations of water elevation at five stations, the bottom friction for river and tributaries, lakes, delta, and adjacent coastal zone is calibrated. Next, the model is validated using another period of observations of water elevation, flow velocity, and water discharge at various stations. Several criteria are implemented to assess the quality of the simulations, and a good agreement between simulations and observations is achieved in both calibration and validation stages. Different aspects of the flow, i.e., the division of water at two bifurcations in the delta, the effects of the lakes on the flow in the lower part of the system, the area of tidal propagation, are also quantified and discussed.     

新生鼠PFOS低剂量慢暴露对成年后神经行为的影响

为观察新生鼠全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)低剂量慢暴露对其成年后神经行为和海马组织影响,选取出生后5-7 d雄性SD幼鼠80只,按体重随机分为4组,分别为对照组(Con)、低剂量组(P5)、中剂量组(P10)、高剂量组(P20),每组各20只。从PND7开始染毒,共染毒12周,动态记录体重,并进行水迷宫、旷场实验、滚轮实验观察神经行为变化,同时取材进行HE染色,观察海马形态学改变。结果显示与Con组比较,P20组染毒8 d后出现体重增长减缓(P0.05),4周时P10和P20组死亡率明显升高;并且P10、P20组在4周,P5组在8周时,水迷宫实验逃逸潜伏期延长,目标象限停留时间缩短;P10、P20组大鼠在4周,P5组在8周时,旷场实验中央格停留时间延长,站立次数减少,行走总距离缩短;滚轮试验中,对照组和P5组肢体运动协调能力无显著性差异。P5组在染毒12周时出现海马神经元排列紊乱,胞核固缩及胞体胀大,CA1区细胞和齿状回闩区神经前体细胞数量明显少于Con组(P0.01)。上述结果表明,大鼠幼年PFOS低剂量慢暴露可损害其成年后空间学习记忆及自主探究能力,这种损害可能与海马神经元发生不足有关     

基于PBPK模型的大鼠体内镉分布的比较:联合暴露及单独暴露

环境中同时存在着多种重金属元素,联合暴露与单独暴露时,重金属在体内的蓄积分布情况也可能有所差异。为探究重金属元素(汞、铬、砷、铅)对镉(Cd)在体内分布的影响,建立了大鼠在Cd暴露下的药代动力学(PBPK)模型,并进行了包括Cd在内5种重金属的联合毒性实验,比较了Cd单独给药与重金属混合物给药2种方式下大鼠肝脏、肾脏中的Cd浓度水平。结果表明,联合暴露高(Hg Cl23.67 mg·kg~(-1),NaAsO_2 3.67 mg·kg~(-1),CdCl_2 10.55 mg·kg~(-1),K_2Cr_2O_7 6.40 mg·kg~(-1),Pb(OOCCH_3)_2·3H_2O 133.33 mg·kg~(-1))、中(HgCl_20.367 mg·kg~(-1),NaAsO_2 0.367 mg·kg~(-1),CdCl_2 1.055 mg·kg~(-1),K2Cr2O70.640 mg·kg~(-1),Pb(OOCCH_3)_2·3H_2O 13.333 mg·kg~(-1))、低(HgCl_2 0.0367 mg·kg~(-1),Na As O20.0367 mg·kg~(-1),Cd Cl20.1055 mg·kg~(-1),K_2Cr_2O_7 0.0640 mg·kg~(-1),Pb(OOCCH3)2·3H2O 1.3333 mg·kg~(-1))剂量组大鼠肝脏中Cd浓度分别为13.37、0.78和0.06μg·g~(-1);肾脏中Cd浓度分别为14.41、1.64和0.15μg·g~(-1)。与对照组相比,暴露组中Cd浓度有显著升高,且不同剂量组之间均有显著性差异。同剂量Cd单独暴露的PBPK模拟结果显示,肝脏及肾脏中的Cd浓度水平落在联合毒性实验结果的浓度范围内,初步推断其他4种重金属的联合暴露并没有影响Cd在大鼠肾脏和肝脏中的浓度分布。