基于模糊四元联系数的防洪工程体系安全综合评价模型

防洪工程体系是由随机、模糊、未确知等众多不确定性因子组成的复杂系统,它至今仍是洪水灾害管理的主体,对该体系综合安全进行定量评价可为洪水灾害管理提供重要依据.模糊四元联系数是集对分析中同异反联系数的推广,它可更深入地分析系统中的各种不确定性.利用模糊四元联系数建立了防洪工程体系安全综合评价模型,用联系度可描述评价对象与评价标准之间的关系,其结果简便直观,能清晰地反应评价对象和评价标准间的动态联系.用该模型综合评价了实际防洪工程体系的安全程度,其结果与物元分析等方法所得结果一致.     

中国水旱灾害危险性的时空格局研究

水灾与旱灾之间,不论在形成的原因上或是在治理措施上,都存在着相当密切的关系。受季风气候影响,中国的洪水和干旱灾害同时并存,近年来我国遭受极端水旱灾害事件的次数比以往增加很多。基于县域统计单元的水旱灾害信息,以总时段（1949—2005年）、分时段（1956—1965年,1996—2005年）、分季度和分月份4种时间尺度来划分,选取2359个县域单元上的灾害频数作为衡量水旱灾害危险性的指标,主要从危险性整体转移、高危险区转移、转移的形成因素以及高危险区的防灾减灾对策几个角度,探讨了中国水灾、旱灾以及水旱综合灾害的危险性时空分异规律。研究表明：近57年来,中国水旱灾害危险性的整体格局呈现东西分异,东部远远高于西部,这是气候一地貌一人类活动相互作用的产物。1956—1965年,我国水旱灾害危险性格局的东西分异明显;1996—2005年,水旱灾害危险性格局不变,高值区域明显增大,向东北、西北、南方扩展。水旱灾害危险性格局的季节变化显著,整体呈现夏季水旱灾害危险性高,春季次之,秋冬季危险性低的状况;月际变化与降水带的推移和承灾体的月际变化相似,7月水旱灾害危险性达到峰值。上述研究结果可为水旱灾害风险区划以及水旱灾害高危险区的减灾战略规划提供科学依据。     

人类抗灾体适能理论架构的研究

介绍了河北省教育科学“十一五”规划课题——体育培养大学生抗灾体适能的实践研究的阶段性研究成果。基于生物学、心理学和社会学的理论研究,通过文献资料法、访谈法和开放式调查法,提出了抗灾体适能的概念,分析了抗灾体适能的内涵和外延,并就将抗灾体适能结构划分为三个维度进行了研究,探讨了人类抗灾体适能理论模型的研究框架,提出了通过体育途径培养抗灾体适能的初步设想。     

杨树刺槐混交林沙地土壤的水分—物理性质

研究了刺槐与杨树混交林后沙地土壤水分－物理性质变化的状况,结果表明,刺槐与杨树混交后,土壤水分－物理性质得到了改善,表现在土壤最大持水量增加,毛管持水量、田间持水量得以提高,土壤有效持水量也有了较大幅度的提高,刺槐与杨树混交后土壤总孔隙度、非毛管孔隙度、毛管孔隙度得到提高,并由此而改善了混交林土壤的渗透性能,表4参7     

二氧化氯对有机染料脱色效果的研究

本文对二氧化氯二两种直接染料和两种活性染料脱色效果的影响因素－ClO2的投加量、染料的初始浓度、pH值、温度以及反应时间等进行了研究。结果表明,在适当的条件下,二氧化氯对这几种有机染料均具有很好的脱色效果。     

顶空气相色谱法测定土壤中的苯系物

利用惠普顶空进样仪作为一种处理土壤样品的手段,自动把待测物送到气相色谱进行分析。研究顶空温度、气液比、平衡时间等条件对测定结果的影响。方法操作简便,灵敏度高。苯的变异系数为1.7%和4.1%,加标回收率为95％－105％,最小检出浓度为2.0μg/kg。     

Improve Compliance with Limited Resources by a Three-Group Inspection Regime

Frequent monitoring and relatively high fines are usually necessary to bring about improvements in environmental quality, but more challenging for many countries with limited human, material, and financial resources is to put them into practice. This paper developed a three-group model of a state-dependent enforcement in a repeated game to improve the policy implementation under limited inspection capacities. A certain number of firms are grouped (group 1, group 2, group 3) for different supervision intensity (e.g., the order of inspection probability corresponding to each group is p ₁?<?p ₂?<?p ₃) based on their environmental performance. The optimal policy parameters, such as inspection probability of each group and the probability that a firm found in compliance is moved to a better reputation group, were obtained as the basis for regulator’s policy making. Numerical simulations indicated that the three-group inspection regime can significantly increase compliance rate as compared with static enforcement with the same monitoring probability. Among the number of firms in each group under steady state conditions, group 2 had the most, group 1 was the second, and group 3 had the smallest. Analysis and prediction of a three-group reputation example provided a good experiment for the model. The results give a practical reference for the policy makers with inspection capacity constraints to achieve higher compliance rate.     

环境污染物计算毒理学分析及环境行为模拟研究进展

根据国内外研究报道,系统地总结了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在环境科学领域的研究进展,包括二者的概念、理论、研究方法以及在环境研究中的应用;分析了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在发展中所面临的挑战,并提出对策;展望了计算毒理学和化合物环境行为模拟在环境研究中的发展前景。     

DPX快速萃取程序升温大体积进样GC/MS法测定水中19种多溴联苯化合物

建立DPX快速吸附萃取、程序升温(PTV)大体积进样与气相色谱/质谱(GC/MS)联用,SIM模式同时测定水中19种多溴联苯(PBBs)单体的方法。该方法在PBBs质量浓度1~50μg/L范围内线性良好,19种PBBs单体检出限为0.147~0.230μg/L,相对标准偏差为6.61%~10.5%,加标回收率为61.5%~82.6%。     

Assessment of urban sustainability efficiency based on general data envelopment analysis: a case study of two cities in western and eastern China

Sustainable urban development focuses on enhancing urban well-being, while also balancing the demands of urban social and economic development, natural resource consumption, and environmental pollution. This work used general data envelopment analysis to assess the urban sustainability efficiency (USE) and sustainability potential (SP) in Lanzhou and Xiamen, two cities that are characteristic of urban areas in western and eastern China. The assessment indicator system included important natural and urban welfare factors as input and output indices, respectively. The results showed that overall urban sustainability efficiency increased in Lanzhou and Xiamen from 1985 to 2010, but that the sustainability of natural resources clearly decreased. The urban sustainability efficiency of Xiamen was higher than that of Lanzhou, and the sustainability potential of Xiamen was lower than that of Lanzhou; this indicates that Xiamen performed better in terms of urban sustainable development. The urban sustainability efficiency in Xiamen has increased with increasing urban population, and the rate and scale of economic development have been higher than in Lanzhou. The assessment and analysis performed in this study show that cities with different natural resources and development characteristics have different forms, patterns, and trajectories of sustainable development.