基于ISM二维云模型的应急管理协同度研究

为研究应急管理系统的内部结构和协同效果，基于ISM二维云模型展开应急管理协同度研究。运用结构解释模型(ISM)剖析应急管理复杂系统内部的层次关系，依据影响因素递阶层次图构建应急管理协同度评价指标体系；提出1种递阶中心度权重法用于求解各指标的权重系数，用中心度与层级系数反映各指标的重要性与结构性；将二维云模型引入到应急管理协同度研究，处理各指标预防阶段和响应阶段的模糊性与随机性问题；应用上述方法对京津冀应急管理协同度进行探索性研究，结果表明:京津冀应急管理综合协同度等级为良，3地各部门之间的横向信息沟通有待加强，需提高应急预案在响应阶段的可行性，同时加大预防阶段的科技支撑能力，研究方法和结论可为以京津冀为代表的城市群的应急管理协同水平的持续提高提供参考和借鉴。     

2018年春节期间京津冀及周边地区烟花禁放效果评估

为了评估2018年春节期间（2月15—16日）京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市烟花禁限放措施的效果,采用浓度特征对比、ρ（PM_2.5）/ρ（CO）等方法,对“2+26”城市的ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）进行分析,并定量估算了除夕夜烟花燃放对ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（SO₂）的贡献率.结果表明:“2+26”城市烟花的集中燃放会导致ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（SO₂）显著增长,出现以PM_2.5为首要污染物的重污染时段,2018年12月16日03:00区域内14个城市ρ（PM_2.5）达到重度及以上污染水平,呈区域性污染特征;与2017年同期（1月27—28日）相比,2018年春节期间（2月15—16日）14个城市烟花燃放对ρ（PM_2.5）平均贡献量呈下降趋势,其中,淄博市、济南市、北京市降幅最大,分别下降了85.2%、74.6%和65.2%,表明烟花禁限放措施起到了显著的污染削峰作用;与城区相比,周边郊县ρ（PM_2.5）显著高于城区,呈“农村包围城市”的现象,说明城区监测点位受到郊县等周边地区烟花燃放的传输影响.研究显示,虽然城区烟花禁限放措施起到了显著的削峰作用,但城区监测点位空气质量仍受到郊县等周边地区烟花燃放的传输影响,导致大气重污染的发生.      

Chemical characteristics of PM2:5 during a typical haze episode in Guangzhou

The chemical characteristics (water-soluble ions and carbonaceous species) of PM2:5 in Guangzhou were measured during a typical haze episode. Most of the chemical species in PM2:5 showed significant di erence between normal and haze days. The highest contributors to PM2:5 were organic carbon (OC), nitrate, and sulfate in haze days and were OC, sulfate, and elemental carbon (EC) in normal days. The concentrations of secondary species such as, NO3??, SO4 2??, and NH4 + in haze days were 6.5, 3.9, and 5.3 times higher than those in normal days, respectively, while primary species (EC, Ca2+, K+) show similar increase from normal to haze days by a factor about 2.2–2.4. OC/EC ratio ranged from 2.8 to 6.2 with an average of 4.7 and the estimation on a minimum OC/EC ratio showed that SOC (secondary organic carbon) accounted more than 36.6% for the total organic carbon in haze days. The significantly increase in the secondary species (SOC, NO3??, SO4 2??, and NH4 +), especially in NO3??, caused the worst air quality in this region. Simultaneously, the result illustrated that the serious air pollution in haze episodes was strongly correlated with the meteorological conditions. During the sampling periods, air pollution and visibility had a good relationship with the air mass transport distance; the shorter air masses transport distance, the worse air quality and visibility in Guangzhou, indicating the strong domination of local sources contributing to haze formation. High concentration of the secondary aerosol in haze episodes was likely due to the higher oxidation rates of sulfur and nitrogen species.     

建筑垃圾资源化利用项目中特许经营模式的适用和争议——基于江苏省的实践启示

特许经营模式能够较好地发挥市场化、效率化、竞争化导向作用,充分发挥市场机制在资源配置中的决定性作用,在建筑垃圾资源化利用项目中得到了一定的应用。本文在分析江苏省建筑垃圾资源化利用项目中特许经营模式的实践经验和面临问题的基础上,总结了特许经营模式典型的交易结构,从物品属性、市场逻辑、风险分担和垄断之争四个方面对存在的争议问题和观点进行辨析,提出了国家层面制定规则、科学选择运作方式、确保采购充分竞争、合理确定项目补贴、加强政府规制作用和持续优化营商环境等政策建议,以期为未来建筑垃圾资源利用推广采用特许经营模式提供参考和启示。