Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

寻找紧缺的银矿资源——地质工作者的急迫使命

由于近二十年来全世界工业的快速发展 ,银的用途益发广泛 ,白银需求量迅猛增加 ,它不仅是我国紧缺的矿产资源 ,而且已成为世界市场上的走俏商品 ,全世界已连续九年需大于供 ,九年累计缺银 1 0亿盎司 ,并且缺口越来越大。专家们预测 :到 1 998年底全世界库存的银锭消耗殆尽。我国前几年有 1 / 2 -1 / 3的白银靠进口 ,1 997年还进口白银 1 55吨。因而 ,银价剧烈上扬 ,从 1 996年的 4美元 /盎司 ,涨到 1 998年 2月份的 7.81美元 /盎司。与白银相反 ,近两年黄金供远过于求 ,1 997年全世界多出 3 93吨 ,故金价急剧下跌 ,从 1 996年的 3 87.87美元 /盎司 ,降到 1 998年 6月份的 2 87.9美元/盎司。由于银需求量增大 ,加之有色金属工业的不景气 ,银产量不仅不能增长 ,而且反而下降。因而人们提出寻找能根据需要而生产的、具有独立开采价值的银矿床 ,即独立银矿床。全世界有三大巨型成矿带 ,我国有四大银成矿区。这些成矿区带的核心是火山 -岩浆活动带。银成矿区带都受巨型或区域深大断裂带控制 ,独立银矿床多产于区域深大断裂带旁侧的次级断层交汇处或附近。独立银矿床的直接围岩可以是火成岩、沉积岩和变质岩 ,但是它们位于火山岩浆活动带中 ,而且以火山岩为主。     

巴彦淖尔盟草场资源开发利用中存在的生态环境问题及其对策

巴彦淖尔盟地区草场退化问题已十分严峻 ,本文分析了巴彦淖尔盟草场资源开发利用中存在的生态环境问题及其成因 ,并提出了解决问题的对策     

Hydrolytic dynamics of pesticide N''-(2,4-dimethylphenyl) -N-methylformamidine in aquatic solution

ＨｙｄｒｏｌｙｔｉｃｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓｏｆｐｅｓｔｉｃｉｄｅＮ＇－（２，４－ｄｉｍｅｔｈｙｌｐｈｅｎｙｌ）－Ｎ－ｍｅｔｈｙｌｆｏｒｍａｍｉｄｉｎｅｉｎａｑｕａｔｉｃｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ￥ＭｏＨａｎｈｏｎｇ；ＹａｎｇＫｅｗｕ；ＡｎＦｅｎｇｃｈｕｎ；ＬｉｕＹｅ...     

A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada

Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems. As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha⁻¹ for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha⁻¹ with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s.     

浙东南早白垩世火山—沉积岩系地层划分

浙东南下白垩统火山岩极为发育,岩石组合与浙江中部永康群差异甚大,称之为馆头组和朝川组似不合适。文成县峃口镇龙潭山(又称龙井山)剖面具代表性,拟以此部面为基础建立梅坪组和龙潭山组,合称文成群。与永康群对比,梅坪组大体相当馆头组,龙潭山组与朝川组和方岩组对比。     

Cells of the connective tissue differentiate and migrate into pollen sacs

In angiosperms, archesporial cells in the anther primordium undergo meiosis to form haploid pollen, the sole occupants of anther sacs. Anther sacs are held together by a matrix of parenchyma cells, the connective tissue. Cells of the connective tissue are not known to differentiate. We report the differentiation of parenchyma cells in the connective tissue of two Gordonia species into pollen-like structures (described as pseudopollen), which migrate into the anther sacs before dehiscence. Pollen and pseudopollen were distinguishable by morphology and staining. Pollen were tricolpate to spherical while pseudopollen were less rigid and transparent with a ribbed surface. Both types were different in size, shape, staining and surface architecture. The ratio of the number of pseudopollen to pollen was 1:3. During ontogeny in the connective tissue, neither cell division nor tetrad formation was observed and hence pseudopollen were presumed to be diploid. Only normal pollen germinated on a germination medium. Fixed preparations in time seemed to indicate that pseudopollen migrate from the connective tissue into the anther sac.     

南京东郊石炭纪威宁期的风暴沉积

南京东郊石炭纪威宁期碳酸盐岩地层中普遍见有风暴沉积,以有突变的底界和底面构造、贝壳层、粒序层以及在风暴低能快速堆积条件下所形成的遮蔽构造等为基本鉴别要素,这些要素的不同组合构成的剖面结构可划分为五种类型,据此笔者提出本区风暴沉积的综合剖面结构。     

Concept of common interests of mankind in the global environmental protection

The concept of common interests of mankind in the environmental protec-tion spurred -by the internationalized and globalized environmental problems are discussed in this paper. While making challenges for many principles and rules of international law and the traditional conception of national security, the concept does play its role in strengthening the environmental protection. However, it cannot be neglected that diflerent national interests pose an obstacle to the realization of the common interests of mankind in the envirormental protection. The article concludes that whether the concept plays its greater role in the environmental protection will depend on many factors, such as the spread of environmental awareness, the revision of the traditional conception and the balanced development of the world economy.