Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

Living in an oasis: Rapid transformations,resilience, and resistance in the North Water Area societies and ecosystems

Based on lake sediment data, archaeological findings, and historical records, we describe rapid transformations, resilience and resistance in societies and ecosystems, and their interactions in the past in the North Water area related to changes in climate and historical events. Examples are the formation of the polynya itself and the early arrival of people, ca. 4500 years ago, and later major human immigrations (different societies, cultural encounters, or abandonment) from other regions in the Arctic. While the early immigrations had relatively modest and localised effect on the ecosystem, the later-incoming culture in the early thirteenth century was marked by extensive migrations into and out of the area and abrupt shifts in hunting technologies. This has had long-lasting consequences for the local lake ecosystems. Large natural transformations in the ecosystems have also occurred over relatively short time periods related to changes in the polynya. Finally, we discuss the future perspectives for the North Water area given the many threats, but also opportunities.     

Uptake of PAHs by cabbage root and leaf in vegetable plots near a large coking manufacturer and associations with PAHs in cabbage core

Samples of ambient air (including gaseous and particulate phases), dust fall, surface soil, rhizosphere soil, core (edible part), outer leaf, and root of cabbage from eight vegetable plots near a large coking manufacturer were collected during the harvest period. Concentrations, compositions, and distributions of parent PAHs in different samples were determined. Our results indicated that most of the parent PAHs in air occurred in the gaseous phase, dominated by low molecular weight (LMW) species with two to three rings. Specific isomeric ratios and principal component analysis were employed to preliminarily identify the local sources of parent PAHs emitted. The main emission sources of parent PAHs could be apportioned as a mixture of coal combustion, coking production, and traffic tailing gas. PAH components with two to four rings were prevailing in dust fall, surface soil, and rhizosphere soil. Concentrations of PAHs in surface soil exhibited a significant positive correlation with topsoil TOC fractions. Compositional profiles in outer leaf and core of cabbage, dominated by LMW species, were similar to those in the local air. Overall, the order of parent PAH concentration in cabbage was outer leaf > root > core. Partial correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression revealed that PAH concentrations in cabbage core were closely associated with PAHs present both in root and in outer leaf, namely, affected by adsorption, then absorption, and translocation of PAHs from rhizosphere soil and ambient air, respectively.     

Antimony distribution and environmental mobility at an historic antimony smelter site, New Zealand

A historic antimony smelter site at Endeavour Inlet, New Zealand has smelter residues with up to 17 wt.% antimony. Residues include coarse tailings (cm scale particles, poorly sorted), sand tailings (well sorted) and smelter slag (blocks up to 30 cm across). All of this material has oxidised to some degree over the ca. 100 years since the site was abandoned. Oxidation has resulted in acidification of the residues down to pH 2-5. Smelter slag contains pyrrhotite (FeS) and metallic antimony, and oxidation is restricted to surfaces only. The coarse tailings are the most oxidised, and few sulfide grains persist. Unoxidised sand tailings contain 10-20 vol.% stibnite (Sb2S3) containing up to 5% As, with subordinate arsenopyrite (FeAsS), and minor pyrite (FeS2). The sand tailings are variably oxidised on a scale of 2-10 cm, but original depositional layering is preserved during oxidation and formation of senarmontite (Sb2O3). Oxidation of sand tailings has resulted in localised mobility of both Sb and As on the cm scale, resulting in redistribution of these metalloids with iron oxyhydroxide around sand grain boundaries. Experiments demonstrate that Sb mobility decreases with time on a scale of days. Attenuation of both As and Sb occurs due to adsorption on to iron oxyhydroxides which are formed during oxidation of the smelter residues. There is no detectable loss of Sb or As from the smelter site into the adjacent river, <50 m away, which has elevated Sb (ca. 20 microg/l) and As (ca. 7 microg/l) from mineralised rocks upstream. Despite the high concentrations of Sb and As in the smelter residues, these metalloids are not being released into the environment.     

Free market ideology and deregulation in Colorado’s oil fields: Evidence for triple movement activism?

Unconventional oil and gas extraction (UOGE) has spurred an unprecedented boom in onshore production in the US. Despite a surge in related research, a void exists regarding inquiries into policy outcomes and perceptions. To address this, support for federal regulatory exemptions for UOGE is examined using survey data collected in 2015 from two Northern Colorado communities. Current regulatory exemptions for UOGE can be understood as components of broader societal processes of neoliberalization. Free market ideology increases public support for federal regulatory exemptions for UOGE. Perceived negative impacts do not necessarily drive people to support increased federal regulation. Utilizing neo-Polanyian theory, interaction between free market ideology and perceived negative impacts is explored. Free market ideology appears to moderate people’s views of regulation: increasing the effect of perceived negative impacts while simultaneously increasing support for deregulation. To conclude, the ways in which free market ideology might normalize the impacts of UOGE activity are discussed.     

Determining the carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio of natural phytoplankton

For field samples, regression analyses of plots of chemically determined particulate organic carbon on chlorophyll are often employed to estimate the algal carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio (F) in the presence of appreciable amounts of nonalgal particulate organic carbon. Spurious results will be obtained, however, if the temporal rate of change of the algae or the nonplant matter reverses its sign during the sampling interval and the samples cannot be ordered correctly in time or space. Previously recognized sources of bias inherent in the chemical approach are also discussed. The great uncertainty of our present knowledge of F is pointed out. It is shown that the concentration of microscopically visible, nonliving particles in the sea isnot known. Renewed studies are suggested as a means of improving on the chemical approach to determining F. The general argument holds for the ratios of nitrogen (particle volume, etc.)-to-chlorophyll, carbon (nitrogen, particle volume, etc.)-to-ATP, and similar conversion factors.Contribution No. 932 from the Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA. The article is a revised and expanded version of a paper contributed at the Joint Oceanographic Assembly, September 1976, at Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.     

Environmental prevalence,fate, impacts,and mitigation of microplastics—a critical review on present understanding and future research scope

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Microplastics are considered to be ubiquitous and widespread emerging contaminants. They are persistent in the nature and pose considerable harm to...     

Modelling episodic acidification of surface waters: the state of science

Field studies of chemical changes in surface waters associated with rainfall and snowmelt events have provided evidence of episodic acidification of lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Modelling these chemical changes is particularly challenging because of the variability associated with hydrological transport and chemical transformation processes in catchments. This paper provides a review of mathematical models that have been applied to the problem of episodic acidification. Several empirical approaches, including regression models, mixing models and time series models, support a strong hydrological interpretation of episodic acidification. Regional application of several models has suggested that acidic episodes (in which the acid neutralizing capacity becomes negative) are relatively common in surface waters in several regions of the US that receive acid deposition. Results from physically based models have suggested a lack of understanding of hydrological flowpaths, hydraulic residence times and biogeochemical reactions, particularly those involving aluminum. The ability to better predict episodic chemical responses of surface waters is thus dependent upon elucidation of these and other physical and chemical processes.     

Bioavailability of persistent organic pollutants in soils and sediments--a perspective on mechanisms, consequences and assessment

It has been observed that as soil-pollutant contact time increases, pollutant bioavailability and extractability decreases. This phenomenon has been termed 'ageing'. Decreased chemical extractability with increased soil-chemical contact time is evident where both 'harsh' techniques, e.g. dichloromethane Soxhlet extraction, and 'non-exhaustive' techniques, e.g. butanol shake extraction, have been used. It has also been observed that the amount of chemical extracted by these techniques varies considerably over time. Similarly, decreases in bioavailability with increased soil-pollutant contact time have been described in bacterial, earthworm and other organism studies. From these investigations, it has been shown that the fraction of pollutant determined to be bioavailable can vary between organisms. Thus, there is an immediate definition problem, what is bioavailability? Additionally, if bioavailability is to be assessed by a chemical means, which organisms should (or can) be mimicked by the extraction procedure? This review provides a background to the processes inherent to ageing, a discussion of its consequences on bioavailability and ends with some reflections on the appropriateness of chemical extraction techniques to mimic bioavailability