基于Bayes误差修正的我国能源消费需求组合预测研究

鉴于能源需求系统的复杂性,为了更科学地分析相关经济因素的变化对我国能源需求的影响效应,本文首先利用通径分析法分析了能源需求的主要影响因素及其对能源需求的直接与间接作用,结果表明经济增长、全国总人口、能源消耗结构是决定能源消费需求的主要因素,其中,经济增长为能源需求的主要决定因素,能源消费结构为能源需求的主要限制性因素。在此基础上,文章考虑了多重共线性和预测有效性问题,分别建立了偏最小二乘（PLS）及趋势外推的单一预测模型,然后基于最优组合预测理论建立了偏最小二乘（PLS）——趋势外推组合预测模型。最后,利用Bayes计理论得到了预测误差的概率分布和组合预测的区间估计。结果表明,利用预测误差的Bayes估计来修正组合预测的结果,将得到更为精确的结论。     

两栖动物栖息地保护与构建前沿及其对喀斯特地区的启示

随着石漠化的发生与发展,生境的丧失和破碎化使得喀斯特地区两栖动物的生存环境逐渐恶劣。通过分析国内外各地区的尝试和经验,在原生环境保护、被破坏生境恢复、人工栖息地模拟、区域规划建设、景观生态建设等5个方面,对两栖动物栖息地保护与构建的方法作了总结。综合近年来我国主要喀斯特地貌分布区——贵州、云南、广西3省两栖动物资源调查和监测的数据,最终收集到有关3省的公开发表的两栖动物物种记录共265种,隶属3目12科49属,其中117种两栖动物分布于喀斯特地貌区。通过从生境临时化、生境单一化、生境趋劣化3方面对喀斯特地区两栖动物的生境现状进行了探讨,提出了在该地区进行两栖动物栖息地保护与构建的5点建议:(1)对原生水源、沼泽等湿地进行有效保护;(2)将两栖动物栖息地的保护与建设纳入石漠化治理;(3)对地势条件较好的暂时性坑塘进行防渗处理;(4)在道路、住房等的规划中融入生态建设理念;(5)构建两栖动物生态廊道。     

Cultural Relevance for Rural Community Development in China: A Case Study in Bai,Jingpo and Huyaodai Communities of Yunnan Province

Abstract

A three-year study over the Bai, Jingpo and Huayaodai communities in Yunnan Province reveals that the community development is significantly influenced in various ways by such cultural factors as the concepts of development; concepts and traditions of inter-community relationships, consumption, marriage and gender; patterns of decision-making and production, resource and income allocation; as well as the role of information dissemination systems, religion and ritual. Based on the analysis over the interactive relevance between each factor and community development, some strategies and methods for dealing with such a cultural relevance in development projects are recommended.     

Can haze warning policy reduce traffic accidents: evidence from China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Haze pollution may decrease drivers’ driving performance by worsening their physical and psychological states. This paper explores the effects...     

Nano-oxides washcoat for enhanced catalytic oxidation activity toward the perovskite-based monolithic catalyst

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In order to explore a superior washcoat material to give full play to the catalytic activity of perovskite active components on the monolithic...     

Electrical properties of plant root cell plasma membrane influence the alleviation of Al and Cu phytotoxicity by Ca and Mg cations

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Although it is known that cations such as calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) can alleviate metal toxicity in plants, much uncertainty remains regarding...     

Low ambient temperature increases hospital re-admissions for systemic lupus erythematosus in humid subtropical region: a time series study

Currently, the correlation between ambient temperature and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) hospital admissions remains not determined. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between ambient temperature and SLE hospital admissions in Hefei City, China. An ecological study design was adopted. Daily data on SLE hospital admissions in Hefei City, from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, were obtained from the two largest tertiary hospitals in Hefei, and the daily meteorological data at the same period were retrieved from China Meteorological Data Network. The generalized additive model (GAM) combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson link was applied to evaluate the influence of ambient temperature on SLE hospital admissions after controlling for potential confounding factors, including seasonality, relative humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. There were 1658 SLE hospital admissions from 2007 to 2017, including 370 first admissions and 1192 re-admissions (there were 96 admissions with admission status not stated). No correlation was observed between ambient temperature and SLE first admissions, but a correlation was found between low ambient temperature and SLE re-admissions (RR: 2.53, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.77) (3.5 °C vs 21 °C). The effect of ambient temperature on SLE re-admissions remained for 2 weeks but disappeared in 3 weeks. Exposure to low ambient temperature may increase hospital re-admissions for SLE, and thus it is important for SLE patients to maintain a warm living environment and avoid exposure to lower ambient temperature.

     

Prenatal evaluation and postnatal outcomes of fetal ovarian cysts

To evaluate the natural history and outcome of cases of fetal ovarian cyst under conservative prenatal treatment. A retrospective cohort study included patients diagnosed with fetal ovarian cysts was conducted between January 2008 to December 2016. Data including clinical data, sonographic feature and postnatal outcomes were obtained. One hundred and two cases were included for statistical analysis. The rate of spontaneous resolution was significantly higher among cases with simple than complex cysts (70/92 or 76.1% vs 2/10 or 20%, P < .01) and for cysts <4 cm than cysts ≥4 cm (50/56 or 89.3% vs 22/46 or 47.8%, P < .01). Ovarian torsion was confirmed in 5/102 (4.9%) cases; neither prenatal characteristics of cysts (complex: 2/10 or 20% vs simple: 3/92 or 3.3%, P = .07), nor their size ( ≥ 40 mm: 4/46 or 8.7% vs < 40 mm: 1/56 or 1.8%, P = .17) was predictive for ovarian torsion. 25/102 (24.5%) of cysts change in size or sonographic characteristics prenatally. Half of the complex cysts at the last prenatal scan are not ovarian in origin. 98/102 neonates (96.1%) were able to preserve both ovaries. Spontaneous resolution of ovarian cysts is predicted by cyst size and characteristics, whereas likelihood of torsion cannot be predicted.     

Transfer assessment of carbendazim residues from rapeseed to oil production determined by HPLC–MS/MS

Abstract

It is crucial to develop practical procedures for the control and reduction of pesticide residues in oil productions from farm to dining table. In this study, the dissipation behaviors of typical fungicide from rapeseed to oil production were studied to reveal relationship among spraying stage, application dosage, household oil processing stage, and pesticide residues. In the field trials, rape plants were sprayed with carbendazim at three different dosages during flowering period. Transfer assessment of carbendazim residues from rapeseed to oil production during household oil processing via different press techniques was determined using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC–MS/MS). The recoveries of carbendazim in rapeseed samples, meals after squeezing samples, and rapeseed oil samples ranged from 82.5% to 93.6% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) ＜5.2%. The validation results illustrated that the methods were reliable and sensitive. The average processing factor (PF) during household oil processing via hot press technique and cold press technique was 0.15 and 0.51, respectively. This study demonstrated that household oil processing could significantly reduce the pesticide residues, especially by hot press technique.     

厌氧反应器的发展

系统地介绍了一种新型超高效厌氧反应器－ＩＣ反应器的构造特点与工作原理，并指出了其技术上的优点。由于ＩＣ反应器的体积小，高径比很大，所以占地面积特别省，非常适应于厂地面积紧张的厂矿企业。