Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Eutrophication alters social preferences in three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Algae blooms, which can be caused by eutrophication, drastically influence the ecology and behaviour of aquatic organisms. Such impact is often demonstrated in the context of mate choice and predator–prey interactions. In contrast, the influence of increased turbidity on social behaviour is less well understood, although it may have strong influence, at both the level of the individual and the population. We aimed to address this gap in our knowledge by using the well-described preference of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) to shoal with the larger of two shoals as model behaviour. In our experiments focal fish had the choice between two shoals of different sizes, either in clear or in turbid water containing green algae. Fish in clear water spent significantly more time near the larger shoal, while fish in algae water showed no significant preferences. Furthermore, fish tested in clear water changed more often between the shoals than fish tested in algae water. These results indicate that eutrophication-induced algae blooms have the potential to alter social decisions of sticklebacks. Such changes of social decisions do not only influence the behaviour of individuals, furthermore it might influence entire populations. This might eventually lead to changes of the structure of the social system.     

Female sex pheromone in immature insect males—a case of pre-emergence chemical mimicry?

Sexual selection by competition for mates is a formidable force that has led to extraordinary adaptations in males. Here we present results suggesting a novel case of pheromone mimicry in males of Lariophagus distinguendus, a parasitic wasp of beetle larvae that develop in stored grain. Females of L. distinguendus produce a pheromone even before they emerge from a grain. Males are attracted to the parasitised grain and wait for females to emerge. Males emerging later than others are under enormous selection pressure since females mate only once. We show evidence that developing males fool their earlier emerging competitors by mimicking the female pheromone. Males exposed to pupae of either sex exhibit typical courtship behaviour. Searching males are not only arrested by grains containing developing females but spend as much time on grains containing developing males. Hence, by distracting their competitors away from receptive females late males may increase their own chance to mate with these females. After emergence, males decompose the active compounds within 32 h probably to decrease molestation during their own search for mates. Chemical analyses of active pheromone extracts and bioassays using fractions demonstrate that the active compounds are among the cuticular hydrocarbons.     

Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.