Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a monitoring system for improved evacuation from passenger ships

This paper presents an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a novel passenger monitoring system based on RFID technology for implementation onboard passenger ships. Such a system will be able to detect and keep track of passengers onboard the ship in emergency situations in order to provide crucial decision support to the officer in charge of evacuation. This will lead to increased safety and security on passenger ships. However, this increased safety will come at a certain cost. A methodology in line with Formal Safety Assessment is employed in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of the system, involving a thorough risk analysis.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

On-road measures of pedestrians' estimates of their own nighttime conspicuity

PROBLEM: Most pedestrian fatalities occur at night. Although researchers have long understood that drivers have difficulty seeing pedestrians at night and that reflective clothing can dramatically enhance pedestrian conspicuity, the extent to which pedestrians understand these facts is unclear. This experiment quantified pedestrians' estimates of the ability of an approaching driver to recognize the presence of roadside pedestrians. METHOD: Ten younger and 10 older participants walked in place on the far shoulder of a closed-road circuit and pressed a button when they were confident that the approaching driver could first recognize that a pedestrian was present. RESULTS: Pedestrians overestimated their visibility and dramatically underestimated the benefit of conspicuity treatments. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that pedestrians fail to understand the magnitude of the nighttime conspicuity problem and the value of conspicuity treatments. Pedestrians may therefore unknowingly place themselves in danger at night. IMPACT: These results underscore the need to educate pedestrians about the dangers of interacting with traffic at night and about treatments that increase their safety.     

The influences of climate and hydrology on population dynamics of waterbirds in the lower Murrumbidgee River floodplains in Southeast Australia: Implications for environmental water management

Restoration of waterbird diversity and abundance is a key objective of river system management in Australia. Therefore, understanding the effects of climatic and hydrological variables on waterbird population dynamics is fundamental for successful river restoration programs. We investigated the population dynamics of waterbirds (total abundance) and seven functional waterbird groups in the floodplains of lower Murrumbidgee River. We found a general declining abundance trend from 1983 to 2007, except for the deep water foragers. We modelled the relative contribution of the climatic and hydrological factors to waterbird population decrease using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework after identifying the negative binomial distribution. Most of the seven functional groups were positively related to both annual rainfall and water usage, defined as the total water volume intercepted by the river reach, and the models indicated that rainfall was slightly more important. Temperature also played a role in waterbird abundance: the maximum summer temperature negatively influenced the abundance of dabbling ducks, shoreline foragers and fish eaters, while the minimum winter temperature positively affected the abundance of dabbling ducks and shoreline foragers. Overall, our results support the practice of providing environmental water for sustaining waterbird populations. However, environmental water provision is likely to be most effective when timed to coincide with antecedent rainfall.     

Effect of gyrodactylid ectoparasites on host behaviour and social network structure in guppies <Emphasis Type="Italic">Poecilia reticulata</Emphasis>

Understanding how individuals modify their social interactions in response to infectious disease is of central importance for our comprehension of how disease dynamics operate in real-world populations. Whilst a significant amount of theoretical work has modelled disease transmission using network models, we have comparatively little understanding of how infectious disease impacts on the social behaviour of individuals and how these effects scale up to the level of the population. We experimentally manipulated the parasite load of female guppies (Poecilia reticulata) and introduced fish either infected with the ectoparasites Gyrodactylus spp. (experimental) or uninfected (control) into replicated semi-natural populations of eight size-matched female guppies. We quantified the behaviour and social associations of both the introduced fish and the population fish. We found that infected experimental fish spent less time associating with the population fish than the uninfected control fish. Using information on which fish initiated shoal fission (splitting) events, our results demonstrate that the population fish actively avoided infected experimental fish. We also found that the presence of an infected individual resulted in a continued decline in social network clustering up to at least 24 h after the introduction of the infected fish, whereas in the control treatment, the clustering coefficient showed an increase at this time point. These results demonstrate that the presence of a disease has implications for both the social associations of infected individuals and for the social network structure of the population, which we predict will have consequences for infectious disease transmission.     

Sea Turtles in North Carolina Waters

Until the turn of the century the inshore waters of North Carolina harbored populations of sea turtles large enough to support a commercial fishery. Based on a 4- to-5-year record of sighting reports by the public, interviews of recreational fishermen, and records kept by commercial fishermen the waters continue to provide important developmental habitats for loggerhead, green, and Kemp's ridley sea turtles. Leathertback and hawksbill sea turtles infrequently entered the inshore waters. Reports from the public and commercial fishermen indicated that sea turtles were present offshore North Carolina all year and were present in inshore waters April through December. Sea turtles were encountered most frequently in the Atlantic Ocean, but seasonal encounters in some inshore waters, such as Core and Pamlico Sounds, often were greater. In early May large numbers of leatherbacks were sighted in the ocean and moved northward along the beach. Reported sightings of leatherbacks declined markedly by late June. Based on incidental captures by commercial fishermen loggerhead turtles were the most numerous species in Pamlico and Core Sounds (80%), followed by green (15%) and Kemp's ridley sea turtles (5%). Most captured turtles were immature, and all were released alive. The abundance of immature sea turtles in North Carolina inshore waters serves to emphasize that southeast U.S. estuaries are important habitats for these threatened and endangered species. This recognition supported the decision of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service to extend the requirement for turtle excluder devices in shrimp trawls to inshore areas during the entire year, full implementation of these requirements was achieved by December 1994.     

Multiplicative sensitivity analysis and its role in development of simulation models

A procedure of extended sensitivity analysis for simulation models is developed which is applicable to the situation in which input uncertainties are specified in a multiplicative (rather than an additive) way. This type of specification usually occurs when error estimates are large relative to the parameter values. The input parameter errors are assumed to have log-normal distributions and the basis for this assumption is explained along with the advantages it provides. The new procedure, multiplicative sensitivity analysis, is developed for the purposes of internal model validation and identification of priorities for specific experimental and theoretical studies needed for a particular system being modelled. The applicability of the procedure in the very early stages of a research program is its main advantage and further expands the rôle of simulation models.     

Attachment of oysters to natural substrata by biologically induced marine carbonate cement

Oysters live permanently immobilised by cementation of the left valve to a hard substrate. The contact zone between oysters and natural substrata has been analysed using SEM imaging, electron dispersive X-ray microanalysis, electron backscatter diffraction and Raman spectroscopy and reveals the influence of both biogenic and non-biogenic processes in oyster cementation. Original adhesion is brought about by secretion of an organic component that acts as a nucleating surface onto which crystals precipitate. These crystals have a random orientation and are composed of high Mg calcite. This suggests that the crystals nucleating on the glue substrate are outwith the biological control experienced by the shell biomineralisation process and are formed by inorganic precipitation from seawater. It is proposed that oysters do not control or secrete crystalline cement. Instead, they adhere by secretion of an organic film onto which crystals precipitate from seawater.     

A systematic review of snake translocations to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects

Advancements in the field of reintroduction biology are needed, but understanding of how to effectively conduct translocations, particularly with snakes, is lacking. We conducted a systematic review of snake translocation studies to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects. We included studies on intentional, human-mediated, wild–wild, or captive–wild translocations to any location, regardless of motive or number of snakes translocated. Only studies that presented results for at least 1 of 4 outcomes (movement behavior, site fidelity, survival, or population establishment) were included. We systematically searched 4 databases for published studies and used 5 methods to search the gray literature. Our search and screening criteria yielded 121 data sources, representing 130 translocation cases. We quantified the association between 15 translocation tactics and short-term translocation outcomes by calculating odds ratios and used forest plots to display results. Snake translocations involved 47 species (from mainly 2 families), and most were motivated by research, were monitored for at least 6 months, occurred in North America, and took place from the 1990s onward. The odds of a positive snake translocation outcome were highest with release of captive reared or juvenile snakes, release of social groups together, delayed release, provision of environmental enrichment or social housing before release, or minimization of distance translocated. The odds of a positive outcome were lowest when snakes were released early in their active season. Our results do not demonstrate causation, but outcomes of snake translocation were associated with 8 tactics (4 of which were strongly correlated). In addition to targeted comparative studies, we recommend practitioners consider the possible influence of these tactics when planning snake translocations.