Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change

There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1) the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerhard Petschel-Held, whose pioneering work on syndromes of global change has been a source of inspiration for us and for others across various schools of thought on vulnerability.     

Determination of deployment specific chemical uptake rates for SDB-RPD Empore disk using a passive flow monitor (PFM)

The use of the adsorbent styrenedivinylbenzene-reverse phase sulfonated (SDB-RPD) Empore disk in a chemcatcher type passive sampler is routinely applied in Australia when monitoring herbicides in aquatic environments. One key challenge in the use of passive samplers is mitigating the potentially confounding effects of varying flow conditions on chemical uptake by the passive sampler. Performance reference compounds (PRCs) may be applied to correct sampling rates (R_s) for site specific changed in flow and temperature however evidence suggests the use of PRCs is unreliable when applied to adsorbent passive samplers. The use of the passive flow monitor (PFM) has been introduced for the assessment of site-specific changes in water flow. In the presented study we have demonstrated that the R_s at which both atrazine and prometryn are accumulated within the SDB-RPD-Empore disk is dependent on the flow conditions. Further, the calibration of the measured R_s for chemical uptake by the SDB-RPD-Empore disk to the mass lost from the PFM has shown that the PFM provides an accurate measure of R_s for flow velocities from 0 to 16 cm s⁻¹. Notably, for flow rates >16 cm s⁻¹, a non linear increase in the R_s of both herbicides was observed which indicates that the key resistance to uptake into the SDB-RPD Empore disk is associated with the diffusion through the overlying diffusion limiting membrane. Overall the greatest uncertainty remains at very low flow conditions, which are unlikely to often occur in surface waters. Validation of the PFM use has also been undertaken in a limited field study.     

The performance of passive flow monitors and phosphate accumulating passive samplers when exposed to pulses in external water flow rate and/or external phosphate concentrations

Passive samplers are typically calibrated under constant flow and concentration conditions. This study assessed whether concentration and/or flow pulses could be integrated using a phosphate passive sampler (P-sampler). Assessment involved three 21-day experiments featuring a pulse in flow rate, a pulse of filterable reactive phosphate (FRP) concentration and a simultaneous concentration and flow pulse. FRP concentrations were also determined by parallel grab sampling and the P-sampler calibrated with passive flow monitors (PFMs) and direct measurement of flow rates. The mass lost from the PFM over the deployment periods predicted water velocity to within 5.1, 0.48 and 7.1% when exposed to a flow rate pulse (7.5-50 cm s⁻¹), concentration pulse (5-100 μg P L⁻¹), or both simultaneously. For the P-sampler, good agreement was observed between the grab and passive measurements of FRP concentration when exposed to a pulse in flow (6% overestimation) or concentration (2% underestimation).     

Intra- and inter-annual variability of VOC emissions from natural and semi-natural vegetation in Europe and neighbouring countries

Biogenic VOC emission estimates from the earth's surface are crucial input parameters in air quality models. Knowledge accumulated in the last years about BVOC source distributions and chemical compound species emission profiles in Europe as well as the demand of air quality modellers for a finer resolution in space and time of BVOC estimates have led to the set-up of new emission modelling systems. An updated fast BVOC emission modelling platform explicitly considering the seasonality of emission potentials and leaf temperature gradients in forest canopies by the semi-empirical emission module (seBVOC) will be proposed and used for estimating hourly values of chemical compound-specific emissions in Europe (33–68° north; 10° west to 40° east) in the years 1997, 2000, 2001, and 2003. Spatial resolution will be 10 km by 10 km. The database used contains latest land and forest distributions, updated foliar biomass densities, leaf area indices (LAI), and plant as well as chemical compound-specific emission potentials, if available. Meteorological input parameters for the respective years will be generated using the non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5. Highest BVOC emissions occur in daytime hours around noon from the end of May to mid-August in the Mediterranean area and from the mid of June to the end of July in the boreal forests. Comparison of 3 BVOC model approaches will reveal that for July 2003, the European isoprene and monoterpene totals range from 1124 Gg to 1446 Gg and from 338 Gg to 1112 Gg, respectively. Small-scale deviations may be as high as ±0.6 Mg km^?2 for July 2003, reflecting the current uncertainty range for BVOC estimates. Key sources of errors in inventories are still insufficiently detailed land use data for some areas and lacking chemically speciated plant-specific emission potentials in particular in boreal, south-eastern, and northern African landscapes. The hourly emissions of isoprene, speciated terpenes, and oxyVOC have been made available by the NatAir database.     

Participatory Impact Assessment of Soil and Water Conservation Scenarios in Oum Zessar Watershed, Tunisia

Environmental threats and progressive degradation of natural resources are considered critical impediments to sustainable development. This paper reports on a participatory impact assessment of alternative soil and water conservation (SWC) scenarios in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia. The first objective was to assess the impact of three SWC scenarios on key social, economic and environmental land use functions. The second objective was to test and evaluate the applicability of the 'Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA)' for assessing scenario impacts in the context of a developing country, in this case Tunisia. The assessed scenarios included: the originally planned SWC policy implementation at 85 % coverage of arable land of the watershed, the current implementation (70 %), and a hypothetical expansion of SWC measures to the entire watershed (100 %). Our results suggest that implementation of the SWC policy at 100 % coverage of arable land achieves the maximum socioeconomic benefit. However, if stakeholders' preferences regarding land use functions are taken into account, and considering the fact that the implementation of SWC measures also implies some negative changes to traditional landscapes and the natural system, SWC implementation at 85 % coverage of arable land might be preferable. The FoPIA approved to be a useful tool for conducting a holistic sustainability impact assessment of SWC scenarios and for studying the most intriguing sustainability problems while providing possible recommendations towards sustainable development. We conclude that participatory impact assessment contributes to an enhanced regional understanding of key linkages between policy effects and sustainable development, which provides the foundation for improved policy decision making.     

Assessment of the natural attenuation of chlorinated ethenes in an anaerobic contaminated aquifer in the Bitterfeld/Wolfen area using stable isotope techniques, microcosm studies and molecular biomarkers

The in situ degradation of chlorinated ethenes was assessed in an anaerobic aquifer using stable isotope fractionation approaches, microcosm studies and taxon specific detection of specific dehalogenating groups of bacteria. The aquifer in the Bitterfeld/Wolfen region in Germany contained all chlorinated ethenes, benzene and toluene as contaminants. The concentrations and isotope composition of the chlorinated ethenes indicated biodegradation of the contaminants. Microcosm studies confirmed the presence of in situ microbial communities capable of the complete dechlorination of tetrachloroethene. Taxon specific investigation of the microbial communities indicated the presence of various potential dechlorinating organisms including Dehalococcoides, Desulfuromonas, Desulfitobacterium and Dehalobacter. The integrated approach, using metabolite spectra, molecular marker analysis and isotope studies, provided several lines of evidence for natural attenuation of the chlorinated ethenes.     

Tree and stand growth of mature Norway spruce and European beech under long-term ozone fumigation

In a 50- to 70-year-old mixed stand of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Germany, tree cohorts have been exposed to double ambient ozone (2×O₃) from 2000 through 2007 and can be compared with trees in the same stand under the ambient ozone regime (1×O₃). Annual diameter growth, allocation pattern, stem form, and stem volume were quantified at the individual tree and stand level. Ozone fumigation induced a shift in the resource allocation into height growth at the expense of diameter growth. This change in allometry leads to rather cone-shaped stem forms and reduced stem stability in the case of spruce, and even neiloidal stem shapes in the case of beech. Neglect of such ozone-induced changes in stem shape may lead to a flawed estimation of volume growth. On the stand level, 2×O₃ caused, on average, a decrease of 10.2 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in European beech.     

Impact of clouds and aerosols on ozone production in Southeast Texas

A radiative transfer model and photochemical box model are used to examine the effects of clouds and aerosols on actinic flux and photolysis rates, and the impacts of changes in photolysis rates on ozone production and destruction rates in a polluted urban environment like Houston, Texas. During the TexAQS-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project the combined cloud and aerosol effects reduced j(NO₂) photolysis frequencies by nominally 17%, while aerosols reduced j(NO₂) by 3% on six clear sky days. Reductions in actinic flux due to attenuation by clouds and aerosols correspond to reduced net ozone formation rates with a nearly one-to-one relationship. The overall reduction in the net ozone production rate due to reductions in photolysis rates by clouds and aerosols was approximately 8 ppbv h^?1.     

Persistent organochlorine pesticides in human milk samples from Australia

Human milk has been used as a surrogate for the assessment of body burden and exposure to persistent lipophilic organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). With the exception of restricted use of mirex, the use of persistent, lipophilic OCPs has been banned in Australia since the 1980s. The decline of human body burden of OCPs following their ban in many industrialised countries is well recorded worldwide from the 1970s until the 1990s though little is known on whether these trends are continuing. In this study, 157 human milk samples collected during 2002 and 2003 as well as 24 samples collected in 1993 were analysed as 20 regional pools for 17 OCPs. OCPs were detected in all pooled human milk samples from 2002/03 typically with highest concentrations of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE) (mean+/-standard deviation; median concentration 311+/-174; 279 ng g(-1) lipid) followed by beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH) (80+/-173; 21 ng g(-1) lipid). Other OCPs consistently detected included dieldrin (16+/-6; 17 ng g(-1) lipid), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) (18+/-16; 14 ng g(-1) lipid), transnonachlor (11+/-5; 9 ng g(-1) lipid) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (p,p'-DDT) (9+/-6; 7 ng g(-1) lipid). The results from this study indicated that following a substantial decline of OCP concentrations from the early 1980s to the 1990s, little decline could be observed since then. Furthermore the use of multivariate statistics indicated some regional trends with slightly higher levels of the broadly used insecticides DDT and HCH in both historic and recent samples from Melbourne, whereas, sample pools collected from mothers that lived in rural Queensland and New South Wales as well as Adelaide and Sydney showed comparatively higher levels of heptachlor and dieldrin - both of which have been used for termite treatment. These results indicate that even 20 years after the discontinuation of usage, historical use of OCPs rather than exposure via global transport of OCPs is responsible for continuous low exposure in Australia.