Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.     

The moderating role of calling in the work–family interface: Buffering and substitution effects on employee satisfaction

This research seeks for improved understanding regarding the interaction of meaningful work and the work–family interface. Existing literature suggests that experiencing a sense of calling toward work makes the work domain particularly salient to employees compared to other life domains. In this article, we draw on this idea, rooted in identity theory, to hypothesize that a sense of calling toward work diminishes the effects of work–family conflict and work–family enrichment on employee's job and life satisfaction. We test these ideas in two studies. First, we surveyed an alumni sample of 598 employees from various jobs, industries, and job levels. Then, in a constructive replication, we surveyed 327 employees using a time-lagged design. Calling was found to significantly buffer the effect of work–family conflict on job satisfaction in Study 2, but not Study 1. Calling did not buffer the effect of conflict on life satisfaction in either study. However, both studies demonstrated that calling attenuated (substituted for) the effect of work–family enrichment on job satisfaction. Study 1 supported the idea that calling attenuates the effect of enrichment on life satisfaction; however, this interactive effect was reversed in Study 2, contrary to expectations. We discuss implications for theory and practice related to callings and career choices, as well as for the role of calling and work identity in the work–family interface.     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.     

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: The impact of urban sources and dust storms

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM₁₀ concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM₁₀ concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM₁₀ concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m³ and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m³ every year. A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000–2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM₁₀ was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m³. The study of yearly trends showed that PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m³ in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m³ in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m³, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM₁₀ concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m³ since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact of dust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM₁₀ limit.

ImplicationsThis paper examines PM₁₀ concentrations in Nicosia, Cyprus, from 1993 to 2008. The decrease in PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia suggests that the implementation of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus has been effective. However, particle levels still exceeded the European Union annual standard, and dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the daily PM₁₀ limit exceedances. Other natural particles that are not assessed in this study, such as resuspended soil and sea salt, may be responsible in part for the high particle levels.     

Micropollutants in urban stormwater: occurrence,concentrations, and atmospheric contributions for a wide range of contaminants in three French catchments

This study aimed at: (a) providing information on the occurrence and concentration ranges in urban stormwater for a wide array of pollutants (n?=?77); (b) assessing whether despite the differences between various catchments (land use, climatic conditions, etc.), the trends in terms of contamination level are similar; and (c) analyzing the contribution of total atmospheric fallout (TAF) with respect to sources endogenous to this contamination. The studied contaminants include conventional stormwater contaminants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), Zn, Cu, Pb, etc.), in addition to poorly or undocumented pollutants such as nonylphenol and octylphenol ethoxylates (NPnEO and OPnEO), bisphenol A (BPA), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a wide variety of pesticides, and various metals of relevance (As, Ti, Sr, V). Sampling and analysis were performed using homogeneous methods on three urban catchments with different land use patterns located in three distinct French towns. For many of these pollutants, the results do not allow highlighting a significant difference in stormwater quality at the scale of the three urban catchments considered. Significant differences were, however, observed for several metals (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sr and Zn), PAHs, and PBDEs, though this assessment would need to be confirmed by further experiments. The pollutant distributions between dissolved and particulate phases were found to be similar across the three experimental sites, thus suggesting no site dependence. Lastly, the contributions of TAF to stormwater contamination for micropollutants were quite low. This finding held true not only for PAHs, as previously demonstrated in the literature, but also for a broader range of molecules such as BPA, NPnEO, OPnEO, and PBDEs, whose high local production is correlated with the leaching of urban surfaces, buildings, and vehicles.     

A Program Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of inspection maintenance programs is proposed. Effectiveness, costs to the state and to the individual, distribution of cost and benefits, and political and administrative feasibility are examined. Effectiveness is probably the most difficult aspect to project because of changes in design and consequences of maintenance repair on performance. However, using sensitivity analysis, substantial reductions in hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are foreseen, along with a slight increase in NO_x emissions.

The cost to the state to administer the program is estimated to be between $2.00 and $2.50 per vehicle, which could be covered by the inspection fee. The other direct costs for the driver, lost time, travel, and repairs, may be offset by fuel and tuneup savings which could amount to as much as 50% of the repair bill. Analysis of distribution costs and indirect social consequences cannot be completed until additional information about the effect of income on maintenance is generated. Politically the program is feasible but depends on public support which in turn is sensitive to direct repair costs. Administratively the program suffers greatly if private repair facilities do not have enough adequately trained mechanics.

It is concluded that the benefits of an inspection program do not convincingly outweigh the high costs, possible adverse social impacts, and public opposition and that other alternatives should be examined.     

Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Modeling traffic air pollution in street canyons in New York City for intra-urban exposure assessment in the US Multi-Ethnic Study of atherosclerosis and air pollution

We evaluated the Danish AirGIS air quality and exposure model system using air quality measurement data from New York City in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Measurements were used from three US EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring stations and a comprehensive MESA Air measurement campaign including about 150 different locations and about 650 samples of about 2 week measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and PM_2.5. AirGIS is a deterministic exposure model system based on the dispersion models Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the Urban Background Model (UBM). The UBM model reproduced the annual levels within 1–26% depending on station and pollutant at the three urban background EPA monitor stations, and generally reproduced well the seasonal and diurnal variation. The full model with OSPM and UBM reproduced the MESA Air measurements with a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.51 for NO_x, r² = 0.28 for NO₂ and r² = 0.73 for PM_2.5.     

Gas-phase chemistry of benzyl alcohol: Reaction rate constants and products with OH radical and ozone

A bimolecular rate constant, k_{OH+Benzyl alcohol}, of (28 ± 7) × 10^?12 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 was measured using the relative rate technique for the reaction of the hydroxyl radical (OH) with benzyl alcohol, at (297 ± 3) K and 1 atm total pressure. Additionally, an upper limit of the bimolecular rate constant, k_{O3+Benzyl alcohol}, of approximately 6 × 10^?19 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 was determined by monitoring the decrease in benzyl alcohol concentration over time in an excess of ozone (O₃). To more clearly define part of benzyl alcohol's indoor environment degradation mechanism, the products of the benzyl alcohol + OH were also investigated. The derivatizing agents O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorobenzyl)hydroxylamine (PFBHA) and N,O-bis(trimethylsilyl) trifluoroacetamide (BSTFA) were used to positively identify benzaldehyde, glyoxal and 4-oxopentanal as benzyl alcohol/OH reaction products. The elucidation of other reaction products was facilitated by mass spectrometry of the derivatized reaction products coupled with plausible benzyl alcohol/OH reaction mechanisms based on previously published volatile organic compound/OH gas-phase reaction mechanisms.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.