Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

A Maximum Entropy Approach to Estimating Emissions

ABSTRACT

A maximum information entropy method of calculating probabilistic estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the wood furniture and fixture coating industry is presented. The maximum entropy approach is used to produce minimally biased probability distributions for number of firms, coating use, and coating emission factors from existing summary statistics. These distributions are combined to estimate VOC emissions. The maximum entropy emissions estimate provides information to support probabilistic modeling of regional air quality, probabilistic assessment of emission reduction strategies, and risk assessments. Accurate estimation of emission distributions produces more informed regulatory decisionmaking, risk comparisons, and regulatory and scientific priority setting.     

Investigation of the Curve Number Method For Surface Runoff Estimation In Tropical Regions

This study tests the applicability of the curve number (CN) method within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate surface runoff at the watershed scale in tropical regions. To do this, surface runoff simulated using the CN method was compared with observed runoff in numerous rainfall‐runoff events in three small tropical watersheds located in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The CN method generally performed well in simulating surface runoff in the studied watersheds (Nash‐Sutcliff efficiency [NSE] > 0.7; percent bias [PBIAS] < 32%). Moreover, there was no difference in the performance of the CN method in simulating surface runoff under low and high antecedent rainfall (PBIAS for both antecedent conditions: ~30%; modified NSE: ~0.4). It was also found that the method accurately estimated surface runoff at high rainfall intensity (e.g., PBIAS < 15%); however, at low rainfall intensity, the CN method repeatedly underestimated surface runoff (e.g., PBIAS > 60%). This was possibly due to low infiltrability and valley bottom saturated areas typical of many tropical soils, indicating that there is scope for further improvements in the parameterization/representation of tropical soils in the CN method for runoff estimation, to capture low rainfall‐intensity events. In this study the retention parameter was linked to the soil moisture content, which seems to be an appropriate approach to account for antecedent wetness conditions in the tropics.     

Does corporate social performance reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the macro level?

Corporate social performance (CSP) is assumed to have a positive impact on macroeconomic sustainability, but empirical evidence of this impact is absent in the literature. The objective of this paper is to investigate the macro impacts of CSP. We first establish a conceptual framework on the relationship between CSP at the individual business level and sustainability at the macro level. Next, we empirically test the relationship between (averaged) CSP scores and greenhouse gas emissions at the macro level for 22 countries during 2004–2011. We use Granger causality tests to check for Granger causality. The estimation results show that CSP reduces greenhouse gas emissions, but the long-term effect is rather modest.     

Climate change,phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization

Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly–host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.     

Estimates of black carbon and size-resolved particle number emission factors from residential wood burning based on ambient monitoring and model simulations

In this paper we derive typical emission factors for coarse particulate matter (PM(10)), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), black carbon (BC), and number particle size distributions based on a combination of measurements and air quality dispersion modeling. The advantage of this approach is that the emission factors represent integrated emissions from several vehicle types and different types of wood stoves. Normally it is very difficult to estimate the total emissions in cities on the basis of laboratory measurements on single vehicles or stoves because of the large variability in conditions. The measurements were made in Temuco, Chile, between April 18 and June 15, 2005 at two sites. The first one was located in a residential area relatively far from major roads. The second site was located in a busy street in downtown Temuco where wood consumption is low. The measurements support the assumption that the monitoring sites represent the impact of different emission sources, namely traffic and residential wood combustion (RWC). Fitting model results to the available measurements, emission factors were obtained for PM(10) (RWC = 2160 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 610 +/- 51 mg/veh-km), NO(x) (RWC = 800 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 4400 +/- 100 mg/veh-km), BC (RWC = 74 +/- 6 mg/kg; traffic = 60 +/- 3 mg/veh-km) and particle number (N) with size distribution between 25 and 600 nm (N(25-600)) (RWC = 8.9 +/- 1 x 10(14) pt/kg; traffic = 6.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(14) pt/veh-km). The obtained emission factors are comparable to results reported in the literature. The size distribution of the N emission factors for traffic was shown to be different than for RWC. The main difference is that although traffic emissions show a bimodal size distribution with a main mode below 30 nm and a secondary one around 100 nm, RWC emissions show the main mode slightly below 100 nm and a smaller nucleation mode below 50 nm.     

Photochemical transformations of tetrabromobisphenol A and related phenols in water

A method was developed for studies of the phototransformation at UV irradiation of aqueous solutions of tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), tribromobisphenol A (TriBBPA), tetrachlorobisphenol A (TCBPA), 2,4-dichlorophenol at various pHs as well as 2-chlorophenol, 2-bromophenol, 3,4-dichlorophenol and bisphenol A at pH 11. The absorbance spectra of the compounds and the emission spectra of the light-source were determined and used to calculate disappearance quantum yields of the photochemical reactions that were taking place. No major differences between the disappearance quantum yields of TBBPA and TCBPA were observed at pH 10, while the disappearance quantum yield of TriBBPA was approximately two times higher. The rate of decomposition of TBBPA was six times higher at pH 8 than at pH 6. Identification of the degradation products of TBBPA and TriBBPA, by GC-MS analysis and by comparison to synthesised reference compounds, indicated that TBBPA and TriBBPA decompose via different mechanisms. Three isopropylphenol derivatives; 4-isopropyl-2,6-dibromophenol, 4-isopropylene-2,6-dibromophenol and 4-(2-hydroxyisopropyl)-2,6-dibromophenol, were identified as major degradation products of TBBPA while the major degradation product of TriBBPA was tentatively identified as 2-(2,4-cyclopentadienyl)-2-(3,5-dibromo-4-hydroxyphenyl)propane.     

A chemical and toxicological profile of Dutch North Sea surface sediments

Chemical and toxicological profiles were assessed in surface sediments (fraction <63 μm) from the southern North Sea. In extracts of freeze-dried samples, polybrominated biphenyl (PBB), Irgarol 1051 and phthalate concentrations were below the respective detection limits (except di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, which was between 170 and 3300 μg kg⁻¹ dry weight (dw)). Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) concentrations were between 0.8 and 6.9 μg kg⁻¹ dw, with highest concentrations at river mouths. Polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE) concentrations were 0.4–0.6 μg kg⁻¹ dw, decabromodiphenylether (BDE209) 1–32 μg kg⁻¹ dw. The ratio BDE209/PCB153 was used as a tracer for recent emissions, and pointed towards a BDE209 source in the Western Scheldt’s upper estuary. PCBs and PAHs were between 0.19–4.7 and 2.6–200 μg kg⁻¹ dw respectively and generally had highest concentrations at near-shore locations and river mouths.

Responses in the Microtox broad-spectrum and the Mutatox genotoxicity assays were generally low, with near-shore locations giving higher responses. The umu-C genotoxicity and the ER-CALUX assay for estrogenicity showed no response, with the exception of one near-shore location (IJmuiden outer harbour, ER-CALUX).

Highest dioxin-like toxicity (DR-CALUX) was found at near-shore locations, in the outflow of the Rhine/Meuse estuary including a dumping site of harbour sludge. At the Oyster Grounds, DR-CALUX responses appeared to be linked to the occurrence of larger PAHs (4–6 rings). A new, non-destructive clean up procedure resulted in significantly higher DR-CALUX responses than the current protocol. The Dutch legislation on disposal of harbour sludge at sea, dictates the use of the conventional clean up procedure. Our results therefore indicate that probably more dioxin-like toxicity associated with harbour sludge is disposed off at sea than assumed.