Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

A dietary shift towards reduced meat consumption is an efficient strategy for countering biodiversity loss and climate change in regions (developed and transition countries) where consumption is already at a very high level or is rapidly expanding (such as China). Biodiversity is being degraded and lost to a considerable extent, with 70 % of the world’s deforestation a result of stripping in order to grow animal feed. Furthermore, about 14.5 % of the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated to be the result of (mainly industrial) livestock farming. The research reviewed here focuses on the feasibility of reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries, as this would—among other positive effects—reduce the global loss of biodiversity, the need for unsustainable agricultural practices and GHG emissions. This article reviews the barriers, opportunities and steps that need to be taken in order to encourage the consumption of less meat, based on an interdisciplinary and multifactor approach. The evidence is gathered from a systematic meta-analysis of factors (including personal, sociocultural and external factors) that influence individual meat-eating behaviour. The most relevant factors that influence behaviour appear to be emotions and cognitive dissonance (between knowledge, conflicting values and actual behaviour) and sociocultural factors (e.g. social norms or social identity). For different factors and groups of people, different strategies are appropriate. For example, for men and older people deploying the health argument or arguing for flexitarianism (reduced meat consumption) may prove the most promising approaches, while providing emotional messages or promoting new social norms is recommended in order to address barriers such as cognitive dissonance.

     

Transport and retention of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in sandy soils

A series of miscible-displacement experiments was conducted to examine the retention and transport behavior of oocysts in natural porous media. Three soils and a model sand were used that differed in physical and geochemical properties. Transport behavior was examined under various treatment conditions to help evaluate retention mechanisms. Significant retention of oocysts was observed for all media despite the fact that conditions were unfavorable for physicochemical interactions with respect to DLVO theory. The magnitude of retention was not influenced significantly by alterations in solution chemistry (reduction in ionic strength) or soil surface properties (removal of soil organic matter and metal oxides). On the basis of the observed results, it appears that retention by secondary energy minima or geochemical microdomains was minimal for these systems. The porous media used for the experiments exhibited large magnitudes of surface roughness, and it is suggested that this surface roughness contributed significantly to oocyst retention.     

Variable emissions of microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) from root-associated fungi isolated from Scots pine

Soils emit a large variety of volatile organic compounds. In natural ecosystems, measurements of microbial volatile organic compound (MVOC) exchange rates between soil and atmosphere are difficult due to e.g. the spatial heterogeneity of the belowground organisms, and due to the many potential sources for the same compounds. We measured in laboratory conditions the MVOC emission rates and spectra of eight typical fungi occurring in boreal forest soils. The studied species are decomposers (Gymnopilus penetrans, Ophiostoma abietinum), ectomycorrhizal (Cenococcum geophilum, Piloderma olivaceum, Suillus variegatus, Tomentellopsis submollis) and endophytic fungi (Meliniomyces variabilis, Phialocephala fortinii). The MVOC emissions contained altogether 21 known and 6 unidentified compounds whose emission rates were >0.1 μg g(DW)^?1 h^?1. The most abundant compounds were the short-chain carbonyl compounds (acetone and acetaldehyde). The greatest carbonyl emissions were measured from P. olivaceum (1.9 mg acetone g(DW)^?1 h^?1) and P. fortinii (0.114 mg acetaldehyde g(DW)^?1 h^?1). Terpenoid emissions (isoprene, mono- and sesquiterpenes) were detected from some fungal cultures, but in relatively small amounts. We conclude that soil micro-organisms can potentially be responsible for significant emissions of volatiles, especially short-chain oxygenated compounds, to the below-canopy atmosphere.     

Fate of bisphenol A during treatment with the litter-decomposing fungi Stropharia rugosoannulata and Stropharia coronilla

Bisphenol A is an endocrine disrupting compound, which is ubiquitous in the environment due to its wide use in plastic and resin production. Seven day old cultures of the litter-decomposing fungus Stropharia coronilla removed the estrogenic activity of bisphenol A (BPA) rapidly and enduringly. Treatment of BPA with purified neutral manganese peroxidase (MnP) from this fungus also resulted in 100% reduction of estrogenic activity, as analyzed using a bioluminescent yeast assay, and in the formation of polymeric compounds. In cultures of Stropharia rugosoannulata, estrogenic activity also quickly disappeared but temporarily re-emerged in the further course of cultivation. LC-MS analysis of the extracted estrogenic culture liquid revealed [M−H]⁻ ions with m/z values of 219 and 235. We hypothesize that these compounds are ring fission products of BPA, which still exhibit one intact hydroxyphenyl group to interact with estrogen receptors displayed by the yeast.     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Impact of busy roads on breeding success in pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

The impact of dense traffic on the breeding success in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) was studied using roadside nest-boxes. Nest site selection and breeding success of flycatchers were observed in relation to the distance from the road. The number of occupied territories was no higher closer to the road than it was deeper inside the forest. The distance to the road had no effect on the laying date, clutch size, or brood size. However, nests closer to the road were more likely to fail at the chick stage. The number of broods that were closer to roads and were lost completely was significantly higher than those further away. As a consequence, the number of fledglings per breeding attempt decreased closer to roads. The nestlings typically died as older chicks when the parent birds were providing them with maximum quantities of food. A possible reason for the declining reproductive success was the traffic-related mortality of parent birds, as weather conditions were not especially adverse for raising healthy offspring.