METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

IMPLICATIONS OF C.A.R.E. VS. SOUTHVIEW FARM ON THE U.S. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY INDUSTRY1

ABSTRACT: On May 19, 1993, a jury in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York found Southview Farm and Richard H. Popp guilty of violating the Clean Water Act on five occasions. The violations were the result of storm water runoff from a site used for disposal of dairy cattle manure from an unpermitted concentrated animal feeding operation. The presiding District Court judge later dismissed the jury verdict, and subsequently a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reversed the dismissal. The Court of Appeals concluded that the discharges were not exempt as agricultural storm water discharges, and that the manure spreaders involved were point sources. Because the use of animal manures in crop production activities will result, unavoidably, in the discharge of some pollutants to adjacent surface waters, a rational and universally applicable basis is needed to determine when such discharges are point versus nonpoint source. Current statutes and regulations do not delineate clearly such a boundary. To address this lack of specificity, I propose that application rates be based on recommended crop nutrient needs.     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

Recent Developments in Cleanup Technologies

Although the reaction mechanics are somewhat mysterious, the use of iron for in situ groundwater treatment has recently gained considerable attention and respect in the remediation industry. The basic scientific principles of both applications of iron have been known for over a century; however, both were nearly unheard of as remediation technologies five years ago. Both technologies have a strong potential for widespread use. They are commercially available, have been proven in field studies, are less expensive than traditional pump and treat technologies, and, in many types of groundwater systems, may be able to meet difficult-to-achieve groundwater treatment standards. As these technologies continue to undergo development, there could be considerably more aggressive applications used to treat ground-water containing high concentrations of chlorinated organics and DNAPLs.     

Getting the ‘pulse’ of your employees: the use of cardiovascular research in better understanding behavior in organizations

Cardiovascular disease has severe consequences for both individual betterment and organizational health. Yet, organization‐based cardiovascular research remains quite limited. This commentary addresses this void by integrating research dating from the famous Hawthorne experiments with current medical science. It then suggests future organizational research on cardiovascular health and recommends use of specific composite cardiovascular measures to advance our understanding of the organizational implications of cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid amino acid cycling in arctic and antarctic soils

Amino acids constitute one of the largest inputs of organic nitrogen (N) to most polar soils and have been hypothesized to be important in regulating vegetational succession and productivity in Arctic ecosystems. Our understanding of amino acid cycling in these soils, however, is poor. The aim of this study was to investigate the size and rate of turnover of the amino acid pool in a range of Arctic and Antarctic soils. Our results indicate that in polar soils with either high or low ornithogenic inputs the amino acid pool is small in comparison to the inorganic N pool (NO^–₃ and NH⁺₄). The free amino acid pool constituted only a small proportion of the total dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool in these soils. Here we show that these low concentrations may be due to rapid use by the soil microbial community in both Arctic and Antarctic soils. The turnover of the amino acid pool in soil was extremely rapid, with a half-life ranging from 2 to 24 h, indicating that this N pool can be turned over many hundred times each summer when polar soils are frequently unfrozen. The implications of amino acids in N cycling and plant and microbial nutrition are discussed.     

Impact of Land Use on Soluble Organic Nitrogen in Soil

Although it has been hypothesized that soluble organic nitrogen (SON) plays a central role in regulating productivity in some terrestrial ecosystems, the factors controlling the size of the SON pool in soil remain poorly understood. Therefore our principal aim in this work was to assess the impact of seven different land use systems (rough and managed grassland, deciduous and coniferous woodland, heathland, wetland and tilled land) on the size of the SON and inorganic N (NO ₃ ^– , NH ₄ ⁺ ) pools in the surface soil layer (0–15 cm). After extraction with deionised water, we found that in most cases the size of the water extractable organic N (WEON) pool was similar in size to the inorganic N pool. In contrast, the KCl extractable organic N (KClEON) pool constituted the dominant form of soluble N in soils under all land uses, perhaps indicating that significant amounts were held on the soil exchange phase. In contrast to inorganic N, which varied significantly with land use, the size of the KClEON and WEON pool was similar for all land uses with the exception of KClEON in tilled land, where significantly lower amounts were observed. We conclude that SON constitutes an important soil N pool in a broad range of land uses, and that its role in microbial N assimilation, plant nutrition and ecosystem responses to atmospheric N deposition warrants further attention. SAFRD, University of Newcastle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K.