Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

Comparison of marginal abatement cost curves for 2020 and 2030: longer perspectives for effective global GHG emission reductions

This study focuses on analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, from the perspective of interrelationships among time points and countries, in order to seek effective reductions. We assessed GHG emission reduction potentials and costs in 2020 and 2030 by country and sector, using a GHG emission reduction-assessment model of high resolution regarding region and technology, and of high consistency with intertemporal, interregional, and intersectoral relationships. Global GHG emission reduction potentials relative to baseline emissions in 2020 are 8.4, 14.7, and 18.9 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 /tCO₂eq., corresponding to +33, +8, and −3 %, respectively, relative to 2005. Global emission reduction potentials at a cost below 50 $/tCO₂eq. for nuclear power and carbon capture and storage are 2.3 and 2.2 GtCO₂eq., respectively, relative to baseline emissions in 2030. Longer-term perspectives on GHG emission reductions toward 2030 will yield more cost-effective reduction scenarios for 2020 as well.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Perspectives for the long-term penetration of new renewables in complex energy systems: the Italian scenario

Renewable energy sources are mainly used in the electrical sector. Electricity is not a storable commodity. Hence, it is necessary to produce the requested quantity and distribute it through the system in such a way as to ensure that electricity supply and demand are always evenly balanced. This constraint is actually the main problem related to the penetration of new renewables (wind and photovoltaic power) in the context of complex energy systems. The paper analyzes some aspects in connection with the problem of new renewable energy penetration. The case of Italian scenario is considered as a meaningful reference due to the characteristic size and the complexity of the same. The various energy scenarios are evaluated with the aid of a multipurpose software taking into account the interconnections between the different energetic uses. In particular, it is shown how the penetration of new renewable energies is limited at an upper level by technological considerations and it will be more sustainable if an integration of the various energy use (thermal, mobility and electrical) field will be considered.     

The survey of living conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA): A comparative sustainable livelihoods assessment

The Arctic is a region of the world experiencing extremely rapid climatic and social change. Indigenous communities have faced similar challenges for millennia and have historically demonstrated remarkable resilience to socioecological perturbations. In contemporary contexts, however, it appears that the pace and extent of change is overwhelming the adaptive capacities of many indigenous communities. Scholars recently completed a survey of living conditions spanning the circumpolar Arctic to quantitatively document the impacts of social and ecological stress across regions. The database they created is called the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic or SLiCA. This article explores the utility of using this dataset to compare livelihood systems across three sub-regions of Alaska and four sub-regions within the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Federation. The results point out that livelihood systems in Chukotka have a substantially lower level of sustainability than in Northwest Alaska due to the high prevalence of vulnerable households.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Status of MSW management system in northern India-an overview

Many Indian cities are facing serious problems in managing solid wastes with rise in population and urbanization. This article assesses the existing state of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in northern India with the aim of identifying the major obstacles to its efficiency and the prospects for improvisation of the solid waste management system in the region. The existing solid waste management system in the region is found to be highly inefficient. Primary and secondary collection, transportation and open dumping are the only activities practiced that too in a non-technical manner. Many cities in region face serious problems in managing solid wastes. The annual waste generation increases in proportion to the rises in population and urbanization. This paper systematically assesses the obstacles in the existing solid waste management system in the urban areas of region and also tries to assess the potentials for its improvisation.     

Analyzing coastal wetland change in the Yancheng National Nature Reserve,China

Coastal zones provide habitat cores and corridors that maintain the diversity of entire landscapes, and they can form the cornerstone elements of regional conservation strategies. Natural environmental driving factors and excessive anthropogenic activities play important roles in coastal wetland change. Many studies have used remote sensing images to map and assess coastal wetland change on local or regional scales. This paper aims to provide insight into coastal wetland change in the Yancheng National Nature Reserve (YNNR) using remote sensing technology and landscape metrics analysis. The results reveal that grass flat and reed areas have significantly decreased, whereas agriculture fields, aquaculture ponds and built-up areas have continuously increased from 1988 to 2006. The spatial pattern of the coastal landscape has become fragmented and heterogeneous under great pressure from rapid economic development and population growth. The wetland changes have important impacts on natural habitat of the red-crowned cranes. The results of this study provide basic information that is required for developing measures toward a sustainable management and conservation of the YNNR.     

Stakeholder engagement in social learning to resolve controversies over land-use change to plantation forestry

Rapid land-use change arising from incentives for afforestation has created tensions in rural communities previously dominated by agricultural enterprises. This paper reports on an innovative experiment with social learning that incorporated participatory modelling to resolve community concerns in a case study of plantation forestry in the Upper Clarence catchment of north-eastern NSW Australia. The development of a diagnostic framework helped identify socioeconomic and environmental issues within the community for investigation by a self-selected participatory advisory committee (PAC) representing a diversity of views. Implementation of a social learning exercise offered empathetic and intellectual engagement among PAC members that maintained interest, built confidence, and improved problem-solving capacity while fostering group ownership over decision making. A shared understanding of dynamic landscape problems helped empower participants to collaboratively develop solutions for improved management and operational practices, and cooperate to explore further options for plantation industry development under existing policy guidelines which are presented in this paper. As a result of frank discussions between diverse stakeholders in a mutually respectful learning environment that combined local, scientific and expert knowledge, concerns dissipated and participants developed a more favourable view of plantation forestry activity.