SUMMER LOW FLOWS IN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =?0.37, p= 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).     

GEOMORPHOLOGY OF STEEPLAND HEADWATERS: THE TRANSITION FROM HILLSLOPES TO CHANNELS1

Headwater streams comprise 60 to 80 percent of the cumulative length of river networks. In hilly to mountainous terrain, they reflect a mix of hillslope and channel processes because of their close proximity to sediment source areas. Their morphology is an assemblage of residual soils, landslide deposits, wood, boulders, thin patches of poorly sorted alluvium, and stretches of bedrock. Longitudinal profiles of these channels are strongly influenced by steps created by sediment deposits, large wood, and boulders. Due to the combination of small drainage area, stepped shallow gradient, large roughness elements, and cohesive sediments, headwater streams typically transport little sediment or coarse wood debris by fluvial processes. Consequently, headwaters act as sediment reservoirs for periods spanning decades to centuries. The accumulated sediment and wood may be episodically evacuated by debris flows, debris floods, or gully erosion and transported to larger channels. In mountain environments, these processes deliver significant amounts of materials that form riverine habitats in larger channels. In managed steepland forests, accelerated rates of landslides and debris flows resulting from the harvest of headwater forests have the potential to seriously impact the morphology of headwater streams and downstream resources.     

MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).     

ACCURACY OF LAKE AND STREAM TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED FROM THERMAL INFRARED IMAGES1

Emitted thermal infrared radiation (TIR, λ= 8 to 14 μm) can be used to measure surface water temperatures (top approximately 100 μm). This study evaluates the accuracy of stream (50 to 500 m wide) and lake (300 to 5,000 m wide) radiant temperatures (15 to 22°C) derived from airborne (MASTER, 5 to 15 m) and satellite (ASTER 90 m, Landsat ETM+ 60 m) TIR images. Applied atmospheric compensations changed water temperatures by ?0.2 to +2.0°C. Atmospheric compensation depended primarily on atmospheric water vapor and temperature, sensor viewing geometry, and water temperature. Agreement between multiple TIR bands (MASTER ‐ 10 bands, ASTER ‐ 5 bands) provided an independent check on recovered temperatures. Compensations improved agreement between image and in situ surface temperatures (from 2.0 to 1.1°C average deviation); however, compensations did not improve agreement between river image temperatures and loggers installed at the stream bed (from 0.6 to 1.6°C average deviation). Analysis of field temperatures suggests that vertical thermal stratification may have caused a systematic difference between instream gage temperatures and corrected image temperatures. As a result, agreement between image temperatures and instream temperatures did not imply that accurate TIR temperatures were recovered. Based on these analyses, practical accuracies for corrected TIR lake and stream surface temperatures are around 1°C.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL,GEOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA: A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH1

The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams.     

Techniques for accuracy assessment of tree locations extracted from remotely sensed imagery

Remotely sensed imagery is becoming a common source of environmental data. Consequently, there is an increasing need for tools to assess the accuracy and information content of such data. Particularly when the spatial resolution of imagery is fine, the accuracy of image processing is determined by comparisons with field data. However, the nature of error is more difficult to assess. In this paper we describe a set of tools intended for such an assessment when tree objects are extracted and field data are available for comparison. These techniques are demonstrated on individual tree locations extracted from an IKONOS image via local maximum filtering. The locations of the extracted trees are compared with field data to determine the number of found and missed trees. Aspatial and spatial (Voronoi) analysis methods are used to examine the nature of errors by searching for trends in characteristics of found and missed trees. As well, analysis is conducted to assess the information content of found trees.     

On measuring wealth: a case study on the state of Queensland

In order for policy makers to plan effectively for sustainable development, there is a need for measures of welfare that consider changes in the natural capital stock. Current measures based on conventional national accounting are flawed because they are based solely on flow measures and do not account for environmental effects. In this paper, we use an expanded measure of wealth to estimate the value of natural capital for Queensland. The state's stock of natural capital is valued at A dollar 355.6 billion, of which non-timber forest resources account for 45.3%, ecosystem services 20.0%, and mineral resources 17.6%. This figure is a conservative estimate of the true value since some significant components such as the ecological and life-support functions of the environment are excluded. The estimates highlight the relative importance of different forms of natural capital and can be used to draw the attention of policymakers to the need to give adequate weight to the value of such services in decision-making processes.     

Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.