Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.     

Bushmeat Markets on Bioko Island as a Measure of Hunting Pressure

Abstract: Counts of the number of animal carcasses arriving at Malabo market, Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, were made during two, 8-month study periods in 1991 and 1996. Comparisons of the availability and abundance of individual species between years showed that more species and more carcasses appeared in 1996 than in 1991. In biomass terms, the increase was significantly less, only 12.5%, when compared with almost 60% more carcasses entering the market in 1996. A larger number of carcasses of the smaller-bodied species (i.e., rodents and the blue duiker [ Cephalophus monticola ] ) were recorded in 1996 than in 1991. Although an additional four species of birds and one squirrel were recorded in 1996, these were less important in terms of their contribution to biomass or carcass numbers. Concurrently, there was a dramatic reduction in the larger-bodied species, Ogilby's duiker ( C. ogilbyi ) and seven diurnal primates. We examined these changes, especially the drop in the number of larger animals. We considered the possible following explanations: (1) the number of hunters dropped either because of enforced legislation or scarcity of larger prey; (2) a shift in the use of hunting techniques occurred (   from shotguns to snares); or (3) consumer demand for primate and duiker meat dropped, which increased demand for smaller game. Our results suggest that the situation in Bioko may be alarmingly close to a catastrophe in which primate populations of international conservation significance are being hunted to dangerously low numbers. Although there is still a need for surveys of actual densities of prey populations throughout the island, working with the human population on Bioko to find alternatives to bushmeat is an urgent priority.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

活化后钾改性正硅酸锂吸附CO2的性能评价及动力学研究

制备了钾改性正硅酸锂(K-Li4SiO4),并对其进行了自活化,考察了活化后K-Li4SiO4吸附剂在不同温度和CO2浓度气氛中吸附CO2的性能及动力学行为。总体而言,吸附剂的CO2吸附能力随着温度的升高、CO2浓度的增加而提升。在700℃、100%体积分数CO2气氛中吸附剂的吸附量最大,可达7.9 mmol/g,吸附剂的利用率为95.2%。利用双指数模型能够很好地描述吸附剂在各个温度以及各个CO2浓度气氛下的CO2吸附过程。吸附活化能随着CO2气氛浓度的升高而降低,CO2体积分数为20%,50%,100%时的吸附活化能分别为26448,14035,6178 J/mol。     

祸兮福所倚

英语中有一句谚语：“事情总有好的一面”,人们相信不幸有时能够转化为幸运的事。2008年,中国经受了一系列灾难——出人预料的雪灾、地震、洪水,以及过去几年我们享受的表面上经济繁荣的最后“崩溃”,从中我们能够得到什么呢？我们是否可以从这些可怕的事件中寻找到些许安慰？