METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia

OBJECTIVE: In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. METHODS: In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. RESULTS: It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.     

Getting the ‘pulse’ of your employees: the use of cardiovascular research in better understanding behavior in organizations

Cardiovascular disease has severe consequences for both individual betterment and organizational health. Yet, organization‐based cardiovascular research remains quite limited. This commentary addresses this void by integrating research dating from the famous Hawthorne experiments with current medical science. It then suggests future organizational research on cardiovascular health and recommends use of specific composite cardiovascular measures to advance our understanding of the organizational implications of cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of large cooking oil pool fires and their extinguishment by water mist

Large cooking oil pool fires, occurring in industrial oil cookers, present a severe hazard to food processing plants due to their size and the large amount of hot oil involved. This paper reports a series of full-scale fire experiments conducted in a large industrial oil cooker mock-up. The characteristics of large cooking oil pool fires and the effect of oil depth and hood position in the oil cooker on fire growth were studied. The use of water mist for extinguishing large oil pool fires and their extinguishing performance under different discharge pressure and with different types of water mist systems were investigated. Experimental results showed that the cooking oil underwent a substantial expansion in volume during heating. The fires developed quickly once the oil auto-ignited. The fire growth rate was affected by the oil depth in the pan and the hood position in the oil cooker. The water mist fire suppression systems effectively extinguished large cooking oil fires and prevented them from re-igniting. Their extinguishing performance was determined by the type of water mist system, discharge pressure and hood position in the oil cooker.     

Differences and similarities of gas and dust explosions: A critical evaluation of the European ‘ATEX’ directives in relation to dusts

Explosive gas mixtures and explosive dust clouds, once existing, exhibit similar ignition and combustion features. However, there are two basic differences between dusts and gases which are of substantially greater significance in design of safety standards than these similarities. Firstly, the physics of generation and up-keeping of dust clouds and premixed gas/vapour clouds are substantially different. This means that in most situations where accidental explosive gas clouds may be produced quite readily, generation of explosive dust clouds would be highly unlikely. Secondly, contrary to premixed gas flame propagation, the propagation of flames in dust/air mixtures is not limited only to the flammable dust concentration range of dynamic clouds. The state of stagnant layers/deposits offers an additional discrete possibility of flame propagation.

The two European Directives 94/9/EC (1994) and 1999/92/EC (1999) primarily address gases/vapours, whereas the particular properties of dusts are not addressed adequately. Some recent IEC and European dust standards resulting from this deficiency are discussed, and the need for revising the two directives accordingly is emphasized.     

Off-site emergency scenario, a case study from a LPG Bottling Plant

After Bhopal disaster, emergency planning in an industrial area has become inevitable. The off-site emergency plan is an integral part of any major hazard control system. Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) leads to fatal consequences. This paper highlights some salient features of the emergency scenario, which ultimately leads to fireball with enormous pressure wave all around.     

The estimated reduction in the odds of loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles equipped with electronic stability control

INTRODUCTION: Using data from the NASS General Estimates System (GES), the method of induced exposure was used to assess the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles. METHOD: Sport utility vehicles were classified into crash types generally associated with loss of control and crash types most likely not associated with loss of control. Vehicles were then compared as to whether ESC technology was present or absent in the vehicles. A generalized additive model was fit to assess the effects of ESC, driver age, and driver gender on the odds of loss of control. In addition, the effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were compared to effects on roads that were dry. RESULTS: Overall, the estimated percentage reduction in the odds of a loss-of-control crash for sport utility vehicles equipped with ESC was 70.3%. Both genders and all age groups showed reduced odds of loss-of-control crashes, but there was no significant difference between males and females. With respect to driver age, the maximum percentage reduction of 73.6% occurred at age 27. The positive effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were significantly greater than on roads that were dry.     

Experimental Verification of the Computerized Method for Work Space Optimization in Conditions of Static Work

The aim of this study was to verify a theoretical model for upper extremity work space optimization. In order to do that, experimental studies were conducted in which two parameters of the electromyography (EMG) signal were analyzed: AMP (amplitude calculated as Root Mean Square) and SZC (coefficient of the slope of the regression line between time and Zero Crossing values). Values of forces in muscles (parameter MOD) were calculated from theoretical studies. A comparison of experimental (AMP, SZC) and theoretical (MOD) parameters was performed by analyzing the coefficient of correlation between those parameters and differentiation of muscular load according to external load value. Analysis showed that the theoretical and experimental results are in step, which means that the developed model can be used for upper extremity work space optimization.