Confronting Management Challenges in Highly Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: a Robustness–Vulnerability Trade-off Approach

This paper presents a framework for the study of policy implementation in highly uncertain natural resource systems in which uncertainty cannot be characterized by probability distributions. We apply the framework to parametric uncertainty in the traditional Gordon–Schaefer model of a fishery to illustrate how performance can be sacrificed (traded-off) for reduced sensitivity and hence increased robustness, with respect to model parameter uncertainty. With sufficient data, our robustness–vulnerability analysis provides tools to discuss policy options. When less data are available, it can be used to inform the early stages of a learning process. Several key insights emerge from this analysis: (1) the classic optimal control policy can be very sensitive to parametric uncertainty, (2) even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve for the simple Gordon–Schaefer model, and (3) achieving increased robustness with respect to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) necessarily results in increased sensitivity (decreased robustness) with respect to other parameters (e.g., economic parameters). We thus illustrate fundamental robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and the limits to robust natural resource management. Finally, we use the framework to explore the effects of infrequent sampling and delays on policy performance.     

A comparison of statistical methods for deriving freshwater quality criteria for the protection of aquatic organisms

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly used in both ecological risk assessment and derivation of water quality criteria. However, there has been debate about the choice of an appropriate approach for derivation of water quality criteria based on SSDs because the various methods can generate different values. The objective of this study was to compare the differences among various methods. Data sets of acute toxicities of 12 substances to aquatic organisms, representing a range of classes with different modes of action, were studied. Nine typical statistical approaches, including parametric and nonparametric methods, were used to construct SSDs for 12 chemicals. Water quality criteria, expressed as hazardous concentration for 5 % of species (HC₅), were derived by use of several approaches. All approaches produced comparable results, and the data generated by the different approaches were significantly correlated. Variability among estimates of HC₅ of all inclusive species decreased with increasing sample size, and variability was similar among the statistical methods applied. Of the statistical methods selected, the bootstrap method represented the best-fitting model for all chemicals, while log-triangle and Weibull were the best models among the parametric methods evaluated. The bootstrap method was the primary choice to derive water quality criteria when data points are sufficient (more than 20). If the available data are few, all other methods should be constructed, and that which best describes the distribution of the data was selected.     

Development of aquatic life criteria in China: viewpoint on the challenge

While more developed countries have a well-established systems to develop water quality criteria (WQC), little research has been done on the adequacy of the current WQC to protect endemic species of China. In order to maintain the health of aquatic ecosystems in China, a series of projects to establish national WQC based on regional characteristics has recently been initiated. However, the establishment of a completely novel methodology would be costly and time consuming. Also, due to the similarities in physiologies and natural histories of classes of aquatic organisms, there is no reason to believe that WQC would not be sufficient to protect unique species in China. This review was undertaken to identify key outstanding issues regarding establishment of aquatic life criteria (ALC) to be applied in China, including prioritization of chemicals, test species, mode of action, field/semi-field data, and methods of aggregating the information and calculating the ALC. This was used to identify the principle issues that need to be addressed in order to better understand the methods for development of criteria for the protection of aquatic life and provide a reference to China and other developing countries committed to the establishment of their own WQC system.     

Dioxin-like activity in sediments from Tai Lake, China determined by use of the H4IIE-luc bioassay and quantification of individual AhR agonists

Deterioration of the general ecosystem and specifically quality of the water in Tai Lake (Ch: Taihu), the third largest freshwater in China, is of great concern. However, knowledge on status and trends of dioxin-like compounds in Tai Lake was limited. This study investigated AhR-mediated potency and quantified potential aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonists in sediments from four regions (Meiliang Bay, Zhushan Lake, Lake Center, Corner of Zhushan Lake, and Meiliang Bay) of Tai Lake by use of the in vitro H4IIE-luc, cell-based, transactivation, reporter gene assay, and instrumental analysis. Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (Bio-TEQs) in sediments ranged from less than the limit of detection to 114.5 pg/g, dry weight, which indicated that organic extracts of sediments exhibited significant AhR-mediated potencies. Results of the potency balance analysis demonstrated that acid-labile, dioxin-like compounds represented a greater proportion of concentrations of Bio-TEQs in sediments from Tai Lake. Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents calculated as the sum of the product of concentrations of individual congeners and their respective relative potencies (Chem-TEQs) based on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and/or polychlorinated biphenyls represented no more than 10 % of the total concentrations of Bio-TEQs.     

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: The impact of urban sources and dust storms

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM₁₀ concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM₁₀ concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM₁₀ concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m³ and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m³ every year. A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000–2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM₁₀ was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m³. The study of yearly trends showed that PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m³ in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m³ in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m³, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM₁₀ concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m³ since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact of dust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM₁₀ limit.

ImplicationsThis paper examines PM₁₀ concentrations in Nicosia, Cyprus, from 1993 to 2008. The decrease in PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia suggests that the implementation of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus has been effective. However, particle levels still exceeded the European Union annual standard, and dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the daily PM₁₀ limit exceedances. Other natural particles that are not assessed in this study, such as resuspended soil and sea salt, may be responsible in part for the high particle levels.     

Volatile Organic Compounds from Coal Tar and Soil Vapor Samples at MGP Sites

This study characterized organic compounds found in New York State manufactured gas plant (MGP) coal tar vapors using controlled laboratory experiments from four separate MGP sites. In addition, a limited number of deep (0.3–1.2 m above coal tar) and shallow (1.2–2.4 m above coal tar) soil vapor samples were collected above the in situ coal tar source at three of these sites. A total of 29 compounds were consistently detected in the laboratory-generated coal tar vapors at 50°C, whereas 24 compounds were detected at 10°C. The compounds detected in the field sample results were inconsistent with the compounds found in the laboratory-generated samples. Concentrations of compounds in the shallow soil vapor sample were either non-detectable or substantially lower than those found in deeper samples, suggesting attenuation in the vadose zone. Laboratory-generated data at 50°C compared the (% non-aromatic)/(% aromatic) ratio and indicated that this ratio may provide good discrimination between coal tar vapor and common petroleum distillates.     

A comparison of different lysis buffers to assess allele dropout from single cells for preimplantation genetic diagnosis

Single cell polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) requires high efficiency and accuracy. Allele dropout (ADO), the random amplification failure of one of the two parental alleles, remains the most significant problem in PCR-based PGD testing since it can result in serious misdiagnosis for compound heterozygous or autosomal dominant conditions. A number of different strategies (including the use of lysis buffers to break down the cell and make the DNA accessible) have been employed to combat ADO with varying degrees of success, yet there is still no consensus among PGD centres over which lysis buffer should be used (ESHRE PGD Consortium, 1999 ). To address this issue, PCR amplification of three genes (CFTR, LAMA3 and PKP1) at different chromosomal loci was investigated. Single lymphocytes from individuals heterozygous for mutations within each of the three genes were collected and lysed in either alkaline lysis buffer (ALB) or proteinase K/SDS lysis buffer (PK). PCR amplification efficiencies were comparable between alkaline lysis and proteinase K lysis for PCR products spanning each of the three mutated loci (ΔF508 in CFTR 90% vs 88%; R650X in LAMA3 82% vs 78%; and Y71X in PKP1 91% vs 87%). While there was no appreciable difference between ADO rates between the two lysis buffers for the LAMA3 PCR product (25% vs 26%), there were significant differences in ADO rates between ALB and PK for the CFTR PCR product (0% vs 23%) and the PKP1 PCR product (8% vs 56%). Based on these results, we are currently using ALB in preference to PK/SDS buffer for the lysis of cells in clinical PGD. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated environmental assessment: an urban perspective

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Particle monitoring techniques for water treatment applications

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