Model estimation of land-use effects on water levels of northern prairie wetlands.

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region exist in a matrix of grassland dominated by intensive pastoral and cultivation agriculture. Recent conservation management has emphasized the conversion of cultivated farmland and degraded pastures to intact grassland to improve upland nesting habitat. The consequences of changes in land-use cover that alter watershed processes have not been evaluated relative to their effect on the water budgets and vegetation dynamics of associated wetlands. We simulated the effect of upland agricultural practices on the water budget and vegetation of a semipermanent prairie wetland by modifying a previously published mathematical model (WETSIM). Watershed cover/land-use practices were categorized as unmanaged grassland (native grass, smooth brome), managed grassland (moderately heavily grazed, prescribed burned), cultivated crops (row crop, small grain), and alfalfa hayland. Model simulations showed that differing rates of evapotranspiration and runoff associated with different upland plant-cover categories in the surrounding catchment produced differences in wetland water budgets and linked ecological dynamics. Wetland water levels were highest and vegetation the most dynamic under the managed-grassland simulations, while water levels were the lowest and vegetation the least dynamic under the unmanaged-grassland simulations. The modeling results suggest that unmanaged grassland, often planted for waterfowl nesting, may produce the least favorable wetland conditions for birds, especially in drier regions of the Prairie Pothole Region. These results stand as hypotheses that urgently need to be verified with empirical data.     

Using decomposition rates to infer how far back tree populations can be reconstructed

To study forest dynamics without relying on the space-for-time substitution, one must be able to follow a population or stand of trees back or forward in time. The method of stand reconstruction looks back in time by aging all the live trees and aging and dating the time of death of dead standing and fallen trees. However, dead trees are lost by decomposition so the record becomes increasingly incomplete with passage of time. Here we present a model of the passage of trees from dead standing to dead decomposed but still datable to completely decomposed and thus undatable or lost. We then generalize a method for calculating the falling rate of dead trees originally proposed in 1985 by A. P. Gore, E. A. Johnson, and H. P. Lo. We do this by removing the assumption that no trees are lost by decomposition, i.e., by using the decomposition rate. Finally, in the most important result, the model allows estimation of how far back a good estimate of the numbers in the population can be made if the decomposition rates are known.     

Development of a New Approach to Cumulative Effects Assessment: A Northern River Ecosystem Example

If sustainable development of Canadian waters is to be achieved, a realistic and manageable framework is required for assessing cumulative effects. The objective of this paper is to describe an approach for aquatic cumulative effects assessment that was developed under the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative. The approach is based on a review of existing monitoring practices in Canada and the presence of existing thresholds for aquatic ecosystem health assessments. It suggests that a sustainable framework is possible for cumulative effects assessment of Canadian waters that would result in integration of national indicators of aquatic health, integration of national initiatives (e.g., water quality index, environmental effects monitoring), and provide an avenue where long-term monitoring programs could be integrated with baseline and follow-up monitoring conducted under the environmental assessment process.     

Evaluation of short-term Ogawa passive, photolytic, and federal reference method sampling devices for nitrogen oxides in El Paso and Houston, Texas

Passive Sampling Devices (PSDs) have been successfully used by government and academic agencies to monitor common ambient air pollutants such as ozone and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)). Most PSD studies have involved long-term (e.g. bi-weekly or monthly) sampling. But the Passive Ozone Network of Dallas (POND) studies of 1998 and 1999 showed that high quality 24-hour and 12-hour data using the Ogawa PSD could be collected for ambient ozone concentrations. This paper presents an evaluation of short-term passive sampling results for nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) in El Paso and Houston, Texas, using the Ogawa PSD. The Ogawa NO(x) PSDs were compared to both Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors and a photolytic converter, with the photolytic converter designed to report closer concentrations to "true" NO(x) by more effectively limiting the interferences of other nitrogen species. Overall, good agreement was noted for all three monitor types in both cities, supporting the potential use of lower cost Ogawa PSDs for large multi-site episodic NO(x)/NO(2)/NO saturation screening studies. This evaluation was conducted during two separate six week periods of the cooler winter months so additional testing of the Ogawa PSDs during different seasons is recommended.     

The mechanism of delayed neuropathy caused by some organophosphorus esters: Using the understanding to improve safety

Abstract

The mechanism of delayed neurotoxicity of some OP (organophosphorus) esters such as DFP (di‐isopropyl phosphorofluoridate) and TOCP (tri‐o‐cresyl phosphate) involves an initial two‐step process affecting an esterase called NTE (neurotoxic esterase). This understanding permits the assessment of delayed neuropathic potential in terms of a quantitative measurement of inhibition of NTE in tissue taken from dosed hens. Structure/activity relationships have been rationalized and the neurotoxic potential of those OP esters which are direct inhibitors of esterases may now be assessed in vitro. The response of human NTE can usefully be compared with that of hen NTE. Nil delayed neurotoxic potential is associated with carbamate or phosphinate anticholinesterases which may be designed as insecticides.     

Statistical Comparisons between Teleradiometer-Derived and Slide-Derived Visibility Parameters

An automated scanning densitometer system developed to estimate visibility-related parameters from photographic slides was tested in comparison to similar teleradiometric measurements. Parameters such as target-sky contrast, visual range, atmospheric light extinction coefficient, and plume and layered contrast can be estimated using this system; however, only target-sky radiance ratios and standard visual ranges were compared. More than 1600 concurrent densitometer and teleradiometer data pairs from eight National Park Service air quality and visibility monitoring locations in the western United States were analyzed using the techniques of correlation, linear regression, average bias and difference calculation, and cumulative frequency distribution generation. Correlation coefficients were good, especially with middle-range camera vistas around 50 km distant. Regression slopes approached unity with intercepts near zero. Average bias introduced into the determination of radiance ratios from slides ranged from near zero to 6 percent, depending on target distance. Standard visual range data distributions compared favorably at the low end with some minor differences at the high end.     

Mineral reserves under price uncertainty

National reporting organizations and regulatory bodies for the minerals and mining sector are requiring publicly reported Ore-Reserve estimates to take account of uncertainties. Whilst methodologies that account for physical uncertainty appear relatively well developed, methodologies which can take account of economic uncertainty appear much less so. To counter this shortfall, we present an efficient and general methodology which can quantify the effect of price uncertainty within reserve estimates, providing both the expected reserve size and the associated distribution (box whisker plot). This statistical information can be used by interested parties to understand precisely where the reserve risks lie, which we highlight in a worked example.     

Model for estimation of traffic pollutant levels in northern communities

Using models to estimate the contribution of traffic to air pollution levels from known traffic data typically requires the knowledge of model parameters such as emission factors and meteorological conditions. This paper presents a state-space model analysis method that does not require the knowledge of model parameters; these parameters are identified from measured traffic and ambient air quality data. This method was used to analyze carbon monoxide (CO) in downtown Fairbanks, AK, which is the community of focus for this paper. It was found that traffic contributed, on average, 53% to the total CO levels over the last six winters. The correlation coefficient between the measured and model-predicted daily profiles of the CO concentration was 0.98, and the results were in good agreement with earlier findings obtained via a thorough CO emission inventory. This justified the usability of the method and it was further used to analyze fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in downtown Fairbanks. It was found that traffic contributed, on average, approximately 30% to the total PM2.5 levels over the last six winters. The correlation coefficient between the measured and model-predicted daily profiles of the PM2.5 concentration was 0.98.     

Toxic effects of oral 2-amino-4,6-dinitrotoluene in the Western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis)

The compound 2-amino-4,6-dinitrotoluene (2A-DNT) was evaluated under laboratory conditions in the Western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis) to assess the potential for reptile toxicity. Oral LD₅₀ values were 1406 and 1867 mg/kg for male and female lizards, respectively. Based on responses from a 14-day subacute study, a 60-day subchronic experiment followed where lizards were orally dosed at 0, 5, 15, 20, 25, 30 mg/kg-d. At day 60, number of days and survivors, food consumption, and change in body weight were inversely related to dose. Signs of toxicity were characterized by anorexia and generalized cachexia. Significant adverse histopathology was observed in hepatic tissue at ≥15 mg/kg-d, consistent with hepatocellular transdifferentiation. Based on survival, loss of body weight, diminished food intake, changes in liver, kidney, and testes, and increased blood urea nitrogen, these data suggest a LOAEL of 15 mg/kg-d and a NOAEL of 5 mg/kg-d in S. occidentalis.