Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI): A new systematic HAZID tool

The availability of a hazard identification methodology based on early warnings is a crucial factor in the identification of emerging risks. In the present study, a specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was conceived as a development of bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide a comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, joined to a process of continuous improvement of the results of the assessment. DyPASI is a method for the continuous systematization of information from early signals of risk related to past events. The technique provides a support to the identification and assessment of atypical potential accident scenarios related to the substances, the equipment and the site considered, capturing available early warnings or risk notions. DyPASI features as a tool to support emerging risk management process, having the potentiality to contribute to an integrated approach aimed at breaking “vicious circles”, helping to trigger a gradual process of identification and assimilation of previously unrecognised atypical scenarios.     

Vegetation Response to Western Juniper Slash Treatments

The expansion of piñon–juniper woodlands the past 100 years in the western United States has resulted in large scale efforts to kill trees and recover sagebrush steppe rangelands. It is important to evaluate vegetation recovery following woodland control to develop best management practices. In this study, we compared two fuel reduction treatments and a cut-and-leave (CUT) treatment used to control western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis spp. occidentalis Hook.) of the northwestern United States. Treatments were; CUT, cut-and-broadcast burn (BURN), and cut-pile-and-burn the pile (PILE). A randomized complete block design was used with five replicates of each treatment located in a curl leaf mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt. ex Torr. & A. Gray)/mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle)/Idaho fescue (Festuca idahoensis Elmer) association. In 2010, 4 years after tree control the cover of perennial grasses (PG) [Sandberg’s bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Pres) and large bunchgrasses] were about 4 and 5 % less, respectively, in the BURN (7.1 ± 0.6 %) than the PILE (11.4 ± 2.3 %) and CUT (12.4 ± 1.7 %) treatments (P < 0.0015). In 2010, cover of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) was greater in the BURN (6.3 ± 1.0 %) and was 50 and 100 % greater than PILE and CUT treatments, respectively. However, the increase in perennial bunchgrass density and cover, despite cheatgrass in the BURN treatment, mean it unlikely that cheatgrass will persist as a major understory component. In the CUT treatment mahogany cover increased 12.5 % and density increased in from 172 ± 25 to 404 ± 123 trees/ha. Burning, killed most or all of the adult mahogany, and mahogany recovery consisted of 100 and 67 % seedlings in the PILE and BURN treatments, respectively. After treatment, juniper presence from untreated small trees (<1 m tall; PILE and CUT treatments) and seedling emergence (all treatments) represented 25–33 % of pre-treatment tree density. To maintain recovery of herbaceous, shrub, and mahogany species additional control of reestablished juniper will be necessary.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

美国西雅图地区城市边缘湖泊的富营养化

引言 近50年来美国住宅开发大量增加.所增住宅很多集中在市区,美国几乎80%的人口现今居住在城里[1].当人们从农村地区和市中心向城市边缘和郊区迁移时,城市变得越来越大,人口增加、地区扩大[1].在城市扩建时,开发商把农业用地和林区的土地转变成城市和城郊[2,3].于是,在城市的边缘、在城乡结合部常常夹杂着被建筑工地、新开发的住宅和商业网点所分割的小块农田和林地以及现在被城市扩建所吞噬的过去十分偏僻的住宅[1,2].     

DISSOLVED GAS ANALYSIS FOR ASSESSING THE FATE OF NITRATE IN WETLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Dissolved gas analysis permits direct detection of ground water denitrification, a technique we used in this study to assess the fate of nitrate in a riparian wetland. Dissolved argon (Ar) and dinitrogen (N₂) were measured in transects of nested piezometers installed at different depths within upwelling regions of a riparian wetland. The method uses the Ar content in the water as a natural inert tracer for assessing background content of N₂ from the previous air/water equilibrium. Within the wetland under study, anoxic to suboxic ground water became more oxic in piezometers close to the aquifer layer, indicating upwelling of oxic ground water. Assessment of loss of nitrate and Ar in ground water within an upwelling zone indicated that shallow piezometers had significant N₂ loss through degassing. Most of the measured nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃^?‐N) loss of 205 μM in a piezometer nest could be accounted for by total N₂‐N produced (169 μM N), calculated from changes in dissolved N₂ and estimated N₂ degassed. Degassing due to methane (CH₄) production was also detected in some shallow piezometers within nests. This technique for analysis of dissolved gases in ground water can be applied to detect small changes in N gas concentration and aids in assessing the fate of nitrate along a ground water flow path.     

Consequential cognition: Exploring how attribution theory sheds new light on the firm‐level consequences of product recalls

It is unclear why some firms suffer greater negative consequences than others following a product recall. To shed light on this question, we extend attribution theory to the firm level to explore how consumers engage in an attributional process following product recalls that shapes their responses to firms. Integrating attribution theory and the demand side theoretical perspective, we assert that consumer judgments of responsibility toward manufacturers are shaped by causal data regarding the locus of causality (i.e., manufacturer or supplier) and controllability (i.e., prior knowledge or awareness) of a recalled product's potential for harm. We then examine the impact of product recall characteristics on judgments of responsibility and firm‐level outcomes using an experimental test involving responses from 320 subjects. Our findings suggest that judgments of responsibility are attributed to the manufacturing firm more when consumers are given causal information indicating that the firm is the source of, or is aware of, a product's defects. The results also indicate that judgments of responsibility can have costly firm‐level consequences in the form of reputational damage, diminished consumer purchase intentions, and increased legal damage recommendations. We discuss theoretical contributions, practical implications, and opportunities for further research.