Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale

We present and evaluate AquaMaps, a presence-only species distribution modelling system that allows the incorporation of expert knowledge about habitat usage and was designed for maximum output of standardized species range maps at the global scale. In the marine environment there is a significant challenge to the production of range maps due to large biases in the amount and location of occurrence data for most species. AquaMaps is compared with traditional presence-only species distribution modelling methods to determine the quality of outputs under equivalently automated conditions. The effect of the inclusion of expert knowledge to AquaMaps is also investigated. Model outputs were tested internally, through data partitioning, and externally against independent survey data to determine the ability of models to predict presence versus absence. Models were also tested externally by assessing correlation with independent survey estimates of relative species abundance. AquaMaps outputs compare well to the existing methods tested, and inclusion of expert knowledge results in a general improvement in model outputs. The transparency, speed and adaptability of the AquaMaps system, as well as the existing online framework which allows expert review to compensate for sampling biases and thus improve model predictions are proposed as additional benefits for public and research use alike.     

Using the functional response of a consumer to predict biotic resistance to invasive prey

Predators sometimes provide biotic resistance against invasions by nonnative prey. Understanding and predicting the strength of biotic resistance remains a key challenge in invasion biology. A predator's functional response to nonnative prey may predict whether a predator can provide biotic resistance against nonnative prey at different prey densities. Surprisingly, functional responses have not been used to make quantitative predictions about biotic resistance. We parameterized the functional response of signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) to invasive New Zealand mud snails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum; NZMS) and used this functional response and a simple model of NZMS population growth to predict the probability of biotic resistance at different predator and prey densities. Signal crayfish were effective predators of NZMS, consuming more than 900 NZMS per predator in a 12-h period, and Bayesian model fitting indicated their consumption rate followed a type 3 functional response to NZMS density. Based on this functional response and associated parameter uncertainty, we predict that NZMS will be able to invade new systems at low crayfish densities (< 0.2 crayfish/m2) regardless of NZMS density. At intermediate to high crayfish densities (> 0.2 crayfish/m2), we predict that low densities of NZMS will be able to establish in new communities; however, once NZMS reach a threshold density of -2000 NZMS/m2, predation by crayfish will drive negative NZMS population growth. Further, at very high densities, NZMS overwhelm predation by crayfish and invade. Thus, interacting thresholds of propagule pressure and predator densities define the probability of biotic resistance. Quantifying the shape and uncertainty of predator functional responses to nonnative prey may help predict the outcomes of invasions.     

Effects of geomorphology, habitat, and spatial location on fish assemblages in a watershed in Ohio, USA

In this paper, we evaluate relationships between in-stream habitat, water chemistry, spatial distribution within a predominantly agricultural Midwestern watershed and geomorphic features and fish assemblage attributes and abundances. Our specific objectives were to: (1) identify and quantify key environmental variables at reach and system wide (watershed) scales; and (2) evaluate the relative influence of those environmental factors in structuring and explaining fish assemblage attributes at reach scales to help prioritize stream monitoring efforts and better incorporate all factors that influence aquatic biology in watershed management programs. The original combined data set consisted of 31 variables measured at 32 sites, which was reduced to 9 variables through correlation and linear regression analysis: stream order, percent wooded riparian zone, drainage area, in-stream cover quality, substrate quality, gradient, cross-sectional area, width of the flood prone area, and average substrate size. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and variance partitioning were used to relate environmental variables to fish species abundance and assemblage attributes. Fish assemblages and abundances were explained best by stream size, gradient, substrate size and quality, and percent wooded riparian zone. Further data are needed to investigate why water chemistry variables had insignificant relationships with IBI scores. Results suggest that more quantifiable variables and consideration of spatial location of a stream reach within a watershed system should be standard data incorporated into stream monitoring programs to identify impairments that, while biologically limiting, are not fully captured or elucidated using current bioassessment methods.     

Analysis of per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances in air samples from Northwest Europe

Air samples were collected from 4 field sites in Europe: 2 sites from the UK, Hazelrigg (semi-rural) and Manchester (urban); 1 site from Ireland: Mace Head (rural); and 1 site from Norway: Kjeller (rural). Additionally, air samples were taken from indoor locations in Troms?, Norway. Air samples were collected using high-volume air samplers employing sampling modules containing glass-fibre filters (GFFs, particle phase), and glass columns with a polyurethane foam (PUF)-XAD-2-PUF sandwich (gaseous phase). Typical outdoor air volumes required for the determination of per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) ranged from 500-1800 m3. GFFs and PUF-XAD columns were analysed separately to obtain information on phase partitioning. All air samples were analysed for volatile, neutral PFAS, with selected GFF samples halved for analysis of both neutral and airborne particle-bound ionic PFAS. Volatile PFAS were extracted from air samples by cold-column immersion with ethyl acetate, and were analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in the positive chemical ionisation mode (GC-PCI-MS). Ionic PFAS were extracted from GFFs by sonication in methanol, and were analysed by liquid chromatography-time-of-flight-mass spectrometry (LC-TOF-MS) using electrospray ionisation in the negative ion mode (ESI-). Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) was often the predominant analyte found in the particulate phase at concentrations ranging from 1-818 pg m(-3), and 8:2 fluorotelomer alcohol (FTOH) and 6:2 FTOH were the prevailing analytes found in the gas phase, at 5-243 pg m(-3) and 5-189 pg m(-3), respectively. These three PFAS were ubiquitous in air samples. Many other PFAS, both neutral and ionic, were also present, and levels of individual analytes were in the 1-125 pg m(-3) range. Levels of some PFAS exceeded those of traditional persistent organic pollutants (POPs). In this study, the presence of 12:2 FTOH and fluorotelomer olefins (FTolefins), and ionic PFAS other than perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and PFOA, are reported in air samples for the first time. Concentrations of neutral PFAS were several orders of magnitude higher in indoor air than outdoor air, making homes a likely important diffuse source of PFAS to the atmosphere. Our repeated findings of non-volatile ionic PFAS in air samples raises the possibility that they might directly undergo significant atmospheric transport on particles away from source regions, and more atmospheric measurements of ionic PFAS are strongly recommended.     

Late season pharmaceutical fate in wetland mesocosms with and without phosphorous addition

The fate of six human-use drugs was assessed and predicted in mesocosms designed to mimic shallow constructed wetlands during the onset of fall and senescence. Mesocosms were monitored for 28 days after the addition of carbamazepine, clofibric acid, fluoxetine and naproxen (nominal initial concentrations of 5 μg/L each), sulfamethoxazole, and sulfapyridine (nominal initial concentrations of 150 μg/L each), with and without phosphorous (P) addition at 1.6 mg/L. We hypothesized that addition of P would stimulate primary productivity and enhance removal of pharmaceuticals from the water column. Carbamazepine, clofibric acid, fluoxetine, and naproxen had half-lives of 8.7, 11, 1.5, and 2.5, and 8.6, 11.0, 1.4, and 2.5 days in treatments with and without P amendment, respectively. Sulfamethoxazole and sulfapyridine had half-lives of 17 and 4.9 days in mesocosms with P amendment and 17 and 4.7 days without amendment. A concurrent pulse of P with pharmaceuticals did not significantly enhance the removal of these compounds. Predicted half-lives from modeling efforts were consistent with observed values, with photolysis the greatest contributor to chemical attenuation.

     

Evaluation of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture Product over China Using Variance Reduction Factor

In this study, we evaluated the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative soil moisture product v02.1 (ESA CCI SM v02.1) using in situ observations collected at 547 stations in China from 1991 to 2013. A conventional validation was first conducted, and the triple collocation errors of ESA CCI SM and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis data were approximately 0.053 and 0.050 m³/m³, respectively. To obtain more reliable validation results, the average soil moisture of the in situ observations per ESA CCI SM pixel was also used as the validation sites. Variance reduction factor (VRF) was adopted to quantify the accuracy of the soil moisture validation sites, and the average VRF was estimated at 4.88%. The validation results were enhanced by excluding validation sites with VRF errors greater than 5% from the statistical analysis. Although the ESA CCI SM underestimated the in situ observations with a Bias of 0.05 m³/m³, a moderately high correlation coefficient of 0.44 and a relatively small unbiased root‐mean‐square difference of 0.05 m³/m³ were observed. This study provides information on the utilization of ESA CCI SM for ecological protection, climate change, and hydrological forecasting. It also suggests the adoption of VRF for future error corrections of satellite‐based products.