Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Silver near municipal wastewater discharges into western Lake Ontario,Canada

Because of the widespread use of silver nanoparticles in commercial products, discharges of municipal wastewater may be a point source of silver in the aquatic environment. We monitored two sites in western Lake Ontario impacted by discharges from wastewater treatment plants serving the City of Toronto. Concentrations of silver were elevated in bottom sediments and suspended sediments collected at the two sites. We also deployed two types of passive samplers in the water column at the two sites, the newly developed Carbon Nanotube Integrative Samplers for monitoring “CNIS-labile” silver and Diffusive Gradient in Thin Film samplers for monitoring “DGT-labile” silver. Results from these passive samplers indicated that the concentrations of silver at the two sites were either below detection limits or were in the ng/L range. In laboratory experiments where the sediments were re-suspended in Milli-Q water, a small proportion of the silver (i.e., <?25%) was labile and partitioned as colloidal or dissolved silver into the liquid phase after agitation. Nanoparticles tentatively identified as silver nanoparticles were detected by single-particle ICP-MS in suspension after agitation of both suspended and bottom sediments. Therefore, there is a need to assess whether silver species, including silver nanoparticles are transported from wastewater treatment plants into sediments in the aquatic environment. This study is unique in focusing on the in situ distribution of silver in natural waters and in sediments that are potentially impacted by urban sources of nanoparticles.     

The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets

This paper models the monthly price volatilities of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices) and investigates the macroeconomic determinants (business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment) of these volatilities. Gold volatility is shown to be explained by monetary variables, but this is not true for silver. Overall, there is limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the four precious metal price series, although there is evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. These results are consistent with the view that precious metals are too distinct to be considered a single asset class, or represented by a single index. This finding is of importance for portfolio managers and investors.     

Effects of particle size on chemical speciation and bioavailability of copper to earthworms (Eisenia fetida) exposed to copper nanoparticles

To investigate the role of particle size on the oxidation, bioavailability, and adverse effects of manufactured Cu nanoparticles (NPs) in soils, we exposed the earthworm Eisenia ferida to a series of concentrations of commercially produced NPs labeled as 20- to 40-nm or < 100-nm Cu in artificial soil media. Effects on growth, mortality, reproduction, and expression of a variety of genes associated with metal homeostasis, general stress, and oxidative stress were measured. We also used X-ray absorption spectroscopy and scanning X-ray fluorescence microscopy to characterize changes in chemical speciation and spatial distribution of the NPs in soil media and earthworm tissues. Exposure concentrations of Cu NPs up to 65 mg kg(-1) caused no adverse effects on ecologically relevant endpoints. Increases in metallothionein expression occurred at concentrations exceeding 20 mg kg(-1) of Cu NPs and concentrations exceeding 10 mg kg(-1) of CuSO4. Based on the relationship of Cu tissue concentration to metallothionein expression level and the spatial distribution and chemical speciation of Cu in the tissues, we conclude that Cu ions and oxidized Cu NPs were taken up by the earthworms. This study suggests that oxidized Cu NPs may enter food chains from soil but that adverse effects in earthworms are likely to occur only at relatively high concentrations (> 65 mg Cu kg(-1) soil).     

Spatial and seasonal variations in atrazine and metolachlor surface water concentrations in Ontario (Canada) using ELISA

Concerns regarding the impacts of pesticides on aquatic species and drinking water sources have increased demands on water quality monitoring programs; however the costs of sample analysis can be prohibitive. In this study we investigated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) as a cost-effective, high through-put method for measuring pesticide concentrations in surface waters. Seven hundred and thirty-nine samples from 158 locations throughout Ontario were analysed for atrazine and metolachlor from April to October 2007. Concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 3.91 μg L⁻¹ (median = 0.12 μg L⁻¹) for atrazine and from <0.1 to 1.83 μg L⁻¹ (median = 0.09 μg L⁻¹) for metolachlor. Peak concentrations occurred in late spring/early summer, in rural agricultural locations, and decreased over the remainder of the growing season for both herbicides. About 3% of the samples that had ELISA results occurring above the limit of quantification (0.10 μg L⁻¹) were evaluated against gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Linear regression analysis revealed a R² value of 0.88 and 0.39, for atrazine and metolachlor, respectively. ELISA tended to overestimate concentrations for atrazine and metolachlor, most likely because the ELISA kits also detect their metabolites. Atrazine data suggest that ELISA may be used complementary with GC-MS analysis to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of a water quality monitoring study. The commercially available metolachlor ELISA kit requires further investigation. ELISA may be used to detect atrazine and metolachlor in surface water samples, but it is not recommended as a quantitative replacement for traditional analytical methods.     

Temporal analysis of PM10 in Metropolitan Monterrey, México

The Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA) is the third largest city in Mexico. Few studies have been carried out regarding its air pollution. The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal behavior of PM10 (particulate matter < or =10 microm in aerodynamic diameter). Data reported by the "Sistema Integral de Monitoreo Ambiental" (Integrated Environmental Monitoring System) network from 2006 to 2008 were used. PM10 levels were compared among the stations by year, season, and day of week. A bootstrap technique was used to obtain subsamples to which Student's t test and ANOVA were applied. PM10 levels were high and exceeded the annual limit of 50 microg/m3 set up by the Mexican standard Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-025-SSA1-1993. These levels could have serious health effects. The southwest zone of MMA had the highest levels of PM10 during the period studied. Winter was the most polluted season, and summer was the least polluted season. Thursday and Friday were the most polluted days, and Sunday was the least polluted day. The hours with the highest levels of PM10 were 8:00 to 10:00 a.m., whereas nighttime hours were the cleanest.     

Comparing Costs of Onsite Best Management Practices to Nutrient Credits for Stormwater Management: A Case Study in Virginia

Best management practices (BMPs) are widely used to mitigate impacts of increased impervious surfaces on stormwater runoff. However, there is limited detailed and up‐to‐date information available on the cost of designing, constructing, and maintaining BMPs over their lifetime. The objective of this study is to analyze BMPs recently constructed by the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) to quantify their total cost per pound of phosphorus removed annually. A motivating factor for the study is recent changes to regulatory guidelines in Virginia which allow for full or partial substitution of purchased nutrient credits in lieu of constructing onsite BMPs to achieve compliance with stormwater quality regulations. Results of the analysis of nine BMPs found their cost ranged from $20,100 to $74,900, in 2014 dollars, per pound ($44,313‐$165,126 per kg) of phosphorus removed. Based on these results and assuming current credit prices procured by VDOT, purchasing nutrient credits is a cost‐effective option for the agency, especially when factoring in the cost of additional right of way for the BMP. Based on this finding, we expect compliance with stormwater quality regulations through credit purchases to become more widely used in Virginia. Moving forward, we suggest more direct tracking of BMP costs to support comparisons between BMP costs across a range of types and conditions to credit purchases for meeting stormwater regulations.     

Urban sustainable energy development: A case study of the city of Philadelphia

Cities throughout the world are key sites for energy sustainability activities. However, analysis of such efforts to date has focused on a sub-set of atypical cities: early adopters and/or world cities. This article undertakes a case-study analysis for an ordinary city, Philadelphia, PA in order to assess the extent to which prior research provides adequate policy explanation for ordinary cities and to gain empirical insight on two under-researched aspects: policy actors, and the policy-making and implementation sites (action sites) for urban energy sustainability. Overall, the types of policy drivers, modes of governance, and enabling factors and barriers in the Philadelphia case fit with prior studies. Focusing on actors and action sites, however, offers insight on the city’s relative policy-making approach based on “non-controversy”, the key role of third-sector actors in both policy-making and implementation, and the diversification of action sites through external-level policy-making operationalised locally nevertheless at the expense of reduced control by urban actors. These findings lead to recommendations for urban energy sustainability research and practice.     

Designing and Implementing a Network for Sensing Water Quality and Hydrology across Mountain to Urban Transitions

Water resources are increasingly impacted by growing human populations, land use, and climate changes, and complex interactions among biophysical processes. In an effort to better understand these factors in semiarid northern Utah, United States, we created a real‐time observatory consisting of sensors deployed at aquatic and terrestrial stations to monitor water quality, water inputs, and outputs along mountain to urban gradients. The Gradients Along Mountain to Urban Transitions (GAMUT) monitoring network spans three watersheds with similar climates and streams fed by mountain winter‐derived precipitation, but that differ in urbanization level, land use, and biophysical characteristics. The aquatic monitoring stations in the GAMUT network include sensors to measure chemical (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, nitrate, and dissolved organic matter), physical (stage, temperature, and turbidity), and biological components (chlorophyll‐a and phycocyanin). We present the logistics of designing, implementing, and maintaining the network; quality assurance and control of numerous, large datasets; and data acquisition, dissemination, and visualization. Data from GAMUT reveal spatial differences in water quality due to urbanization and built infrastructure; capture rapid temporal changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activity; and identify changes in biological structure, each of which are demonstrated via case study datasets.     

Method for Rapidly Assessing the Overtopping Risk of Bridges Due to Flooding over a Large Geographic Region

Hydraulic events are a leading cause of bridge failures. While these hydraulic events are accounted for in bridge design, changing environmental and land use conditions require continual updating of this risk. For example, after a bridge has been constructed, streamflow can change in unanticipated ways as a result of land use changes, geomorphic changes, and climate change. The objective of this research was to create a screening method able to quickly and inexpensively estimate overtopping risk across a collection of bridges based on the current streamflow conditions. The method uses a geographic information system, nationally available and standardized datasets, and recent regression equations to quantify bridge vulnerability to overtopping for flooding with varying return periods. This screening method could also be used to assist decision makers in updating the Waterway Adequacy field in the National Bridge Inventory, which indicates the overtopping risk of bridges. The method was applied to a portion of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, United States that includes 475 bridges. The results of the analysis, when combined with transportation data for bridges, aid decision makers to assign further resources to complete more detailed analyses of bridges identified as being at risk for overtopping.