Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios.     

Potentially preventable prehospital deaths from motor vehicle collisions

Background: In 2011, about 30,000 people died in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in the United States. We sought to evaluate the causes of prehospital deaths related to MVCs and to assess whether these deaths were potentially preventable.

Methods: Miami–Dade Medical Examiner records for 2011 were reviewed for all prehospital deaths of occupants of 4-wheeled motor vehicle collisions. Injuries were categorized by affected organ and anatomic location of the body. Cases were reviewed by a panel of 2 trauma surgeons to determine cause of death and whether the death was potentially preventable. Time to death and hospital arrival times were determined using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2002 to 2012, which allowed comparison of our local data to national prevalence estimates.

Results: Local data revealed that 39% of the 98 deaths reviewed were potentially preventable (PPD). Significantly more patients with PPD had neurotrauma as a cause of death compared to those with a nonpreventable death (NPD) (44.7% vs. 25.0%, P =.049). NPDs were significantly more likely to have combined neurotrauma and hemorrhage as cause of death compared to PPDs (45.0% vs. 10.5%, P <.001). NPDs were significantly more likely to have injuries to the chest, pelvis, or spine. NPDs also had significantly more injuries to the following organ systems: lung, cardiac, and vascular chest (all P <.05). In the nationally representative FARS data from 2002 to 2012, 30% of deaths occurred on scene and another 32% occurred within 1 h of injury. When comparing the 2011 FARS data for Miami–Dade to the remainder of the United States in that year, percentage of deaths when reported on scene (25 vs. 23%, respectively) and within 1 h of injury (35 vs. 32%, respectively) were similar.

Conclusions: Nationally, FARS data demonstrated that two thirds of all MVC deaths occurred within 1 h of injury. Over a third of prehospital MVC deaths were potentially preventable in our local sample. By examining injury patterns in PPDs, targeted intervention may be initiated.     

Boldness is influenced by sublethal interactions with predators and is associated with successful harem infiltration in Madagascar hissing cockroaches

One of the contemporary challenges of the behavioral syndromes literature is to identify how individual variation in behavior is determined, and whether this variation impacts ecological success. Although variation in experience is an obvious potential driver of intraspecific behavioral variation, predicting the impact of experience on suites of correlated behavioral traits is less intuitive. Specifically, if experience impacts traits that shape individuals' success in multiple contexts (e.g., foraging and anti-predator behavior), then experience could generate cross-contextual performance trade-offs associated with behavioral spillover. In the present study, we explore how sublethal experience with predators impacts various aspects of male behavioral tendencies in the Madagascar hissing cockroach, Gromphadorhina portentosa. First, we found that males' activity level and boldness were correlated together in the form of a behavioral syndrome. Second, we found that repeated sublethal interactions with predators shifted male boldness but not activity level, thus suggesting that the syndrome's constituent traits can respond to experience at least semi-independently. Third, we discovered that although predator exposure only influenced boldness, we found that boldness was highly correlated with males' ability to obtain rewarding positions in the harems of rival males. Taken together, our data suggest (but do not yet confirm) that although sublethal exposure to predators influences only a narrow subset of male's behavioral tendencies, these effects could still have nonintuitive consequences for males' success in functionally dissimilar ecological contexts (i.e., social and sexual encounters).     

Impacts of super-typhoon Yolanda on Philippine reefs and communities

Regional Environmental Change - This report presents super-typhoon Yolanda’s impacts on coral reefs of Eastern Samar, Philippines, and evaluates its implications on resource management in the...     

关于新时期师德建设的探索

本文笔者通过回顾历史上优秀的师德观,明确加强新时期师德建设的意义;分析现阶段师德面临的新问题,探讨应如何正视和解决这些问题,以加强新时期师德建设。     

Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates

Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production—the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands—can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.     

Large-scale direct shear testing of municipal solid waste

Large direct shear testing (300 mm × 300 mm box) of municipal solid waste (MSW) collected from a landfill located in the San Francisco Bay area was performed to gain insight on the shear response of MSW. The study investigated the effects of waste composition, confining stress, unit weight, and loading rate on the stress–displacement response and shear strength of MSW. The amount and orientation of the fibrous waste materials in the MSW were found to play a critical role. The fibrous material had little effect on the MSW’s strength when it was oriented parallel to the shear surface, as is typically the case when waste material is compressed vertically and then tested in a direct shear apparatus. Tests in which the fibrous material was oriented perpendicular to the horizontal shear surface produced significantly stronger MSW specimens. The test results indicate that confining stress and loading rate are also important factors. Based on 109 large-scale direct shear tests, the shear strength of MSW at low moisture contents is best characterized by cohesion = 15 kPa, friction angle = 36° at a normal stress of 1 atmosphere, and a decrease in the friction angle of 5° for every log-cycle increase in normal stress.