Decreased Runoff Response to Precipitation,Little Missouri River Basin,Northern Great Plains,USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976‐2012 compared to 1939‐1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface‐water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.     

Speciation of selected heavy metals geochemistry in surface sediments from Tirumalairajan river estuary, east coast of India

Surface sediment samples from the Tirumalairajan river estuary were studied for grain size pattern, organic matter, and heavy metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, and Pb) using the sequential and bulk metal extraction methods to evaluate metal behavior. Ten surface sediment samples were collected during the monsoon and summer seasons of the year 2009. The observed orders of concentrations of heavy metals in the sediments were as follows: Fe?>?Mn?>?Zn?>?Pb. The results obtained from sequential extraction showed that, among the metals studied, a larger portion of the metals were associated with the residual phase, although they are available in other fractions. The low concentration of metals available in bioavailable phases indicated that the sediments of Tirumalairajan river estuary were relatively unpolluted. Correlation analysis was also carried out to understand the associations of metals in different phases with sand, silt, clay, and organic matter. To understand the risk of heavy metals to sediment-dwelling organisms, the data were compared with risk assessment code and sediment quality values using the screening quick reference table. The main source of metals to the estuary is from the irrigation field and its associated activities in the study area.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

Park isolation in anthropogenic landscapes: land change and livelihoods at park boundaries in the African Albertine Rift

Regional Environmental Change - Landscapes are changing rapidly in regions where rural people live adjacent to protected parks and reserves. This is the case in highland East Africa, where many...     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

NEGOTIATION TECHNIQUES TO RESOLVE WESTERN WATER DISPUTES1

ABSTRACT: There is a growing literature on the resolution of natural resources conflicts. Much of it is practical, focusing on guidelines for hands-on negotiation. This literature can be a guide in water conflicts. This is especially true for negotiations over new environmental values such as instream flow. The concepts of competitive, cooperative, and integrative styles of conflict resolution are applied to three cases of water resource bargaining. Lessons for the effective use of these ideas include: break a large number of parties into small working groups, approach value differences in small steps, be cautious in the presence of an attentive public, keep decisions at the local level, and understand the opponent's interests.     

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20–30-year time horizon.     

A synergetic model for implementing an integrated management system: an empirical study in China

The implementation and certification of quality, environmental and occupational health and safety management systems have become a priority for many organizations. They are viewed as symbol for success and prerequisite for survival. However, it has been proved to be difficult to operate multiple parallel management systems covering quality, environment, and occupational health and safety and to ensure their alignment with the organization's strategy. To investigate the current status of integrated management system (IMS), a structured questionnaire survey was administrated. It is concluded that the major problems for enterprises to operate multiple parallel management systems include: it causes complexity of internal management, it lowers management efficiency, it incurs cultural incompatibility, it causes employee hostility, and increases management costs. The survey also examined the internal and external factors that affect the implementation of IMS. The internal factors include: (1) human resources, (2) organizational structure, (3) company culture, and (4) understanding and perception. The external factors consist of: (1) technical guidance, (2) certification bodies, (3) stakeholders and customers, and (4) the institutional environment. The article proposes a multi-level synergy model (strategic synergy, organizational structural-resource-cultural synergy, and documentation synergy) for an effective implementation of IMS.     

A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing

This paper provides a general treatment of emission trading, banking, and borrowing in an intertemporal, continuous-time model. Using optimal-control theory, the decentralized behavior of firms is shown to lead to the least-cost solution attainable under joint-cost minimization. Explicit solutions for the time paths of emissions and permit prices are derived when firms are allowed to both bank and borrow and when firms are only allowed to bank emission permits. The policy implications of emission banking and borrowing are discussed.