Incorporating geographical and evolutionary rarity into conservation prioritization

Key goals of conservation are to protect both species and the functional and genetic diversity they represent. A strictly species-based approach may underrepresent rare, threatened, or genetically distinct species and overrepresent widespread species. Although reserves are created for a number of reasons, including economic, cultural, and ecological reasons, their efficacy has been measured primarily in terms of how well species richness is protected, and it is useful to compare how well they protect other measures of diversity. We used Proteaceae species-occurrence data in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to illustrate differences in the spatial distribution of species and evolutionary diversity estimated from a new maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny. We calculated species richness, phylogenetic diversity (i.e., summed phylogenetic branch lengths in a site), and a site-aggregated measure of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness (i.e., an abundance weighted measure that captures the unique proportion of the phylogenetic tree a species represents) for sites throughout the Cape Floristic Region. Species richness and phylogenetic diversity values were highly correlated for sites in the region, but species richness was concentrated at a few sites that underrepresented the much more spatially extensive distribution of phylogenetic diversity. Biogeographically weighted evolutionary diversity produced a scheme of prioritization distinct from the other 2 metrics and highlighted southern sites as conservation priorities. In these sites, the high values of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness were the result of a nonrandom relation between evolutionary distinctiveness and geographical rarity, where rare species also tended to have high levels of evolutionary distinctiveness. Such distinct and rare species are of particular concern, but are not captured by conservation schemes that focus on species richness or phylogenetic diversity alone.     

Using the functional response of a consumer to predict biotic resistance to invasive prey

Predators sometimes provide biotic resistance against invasions by nonnative prey. Understanding and predicting the strength of biotic resistance remains a key challenge in invasion biology. A predator's functional response to nonnative prey may predict whether a predator can provide biotic resistance against nonnative prey at different prey densities. Surprisingly, functional responses have not been used to make quantitative predictions about biotic resistance. We parameterized the functional response of signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) to invasive New Zealand mud snails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum; NZMS) and used this functional response and a simple model of NZMS population growth to predict the probability of biotic resistance at different predator and prey densities. Signal crayfish were effective predators of NZMS, consuming more than 900 NZMS per predator in a 12-h period, and Bayesian model fitting indicated their consumption rate followed a type 3 functional response to NZMS density. Based on this functional response and associated parameter uncertainty, we predict that NZMS will be able to invade new systems at low crayfish densities (< 0.2 crayfish/m2) regardless of NZMS density. At intermediate to high crayfish densities (> 0.2 crayfish/m2), we predict that low densities of NZMS will be able to establish in new communities; however, once NZMS reach a threshold density of -2000 NZMS/m2, predation by crayfish will drive negative NZMS population growth. Further, at very high densities, NZMS overwhelm predation by crayfish and invade. Thus, interacting thresholds of propagule pressure and predator densities define the probability of biotic resistance. Quantifying the shape and uncertainty of predator functional responses to nonnative prey may help predict the outcomes of invasions.     

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (tau) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.     

Estimating species-specific survival and movement when species identification is uncertain

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark-recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark-recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark-recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.     

Biotic control of stream fluxes: spawning salmon drive nutrient and matter export

Organisms can control movements of nutrients and matter by physically modifying habitat. We examined how an ecosystem engineer, sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), influences seasonal fluxes of sediments, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in streams of southwestern Alaska. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether salmon act as net importers or net exporters of matter and nutrients from streams and how these roles change as a function of salmon population density. We measured discharge and concentrations of suspended sediments and total N and P every 7-14 days for up to four summers in 10 streams spanning a gradient in salmon densities. We statistically allocated whole-season fluxes to salmon activities, such as excretion and bioturbation, and to export by hydrologic discharge. In addition, we used counts of spawning salmon to estimate nutrient and matter imports by salmon to streams. Large seasonal pulses of suspended sediments, P, and N were associated with salmon spawning activities, often increasing export an order of magnitude higher than during pre-salmon levels. Years and streams with more salmon had significantly higher levels of export of sediments and nutrients. In addition, years with higher precipitation had higher background export of P and N. Salmon exported an average of the equivalent of 189%, 60%, and 55% of total matter, P, and N that salmon imported in their bodies. The relative magnitude of export varied; salmon exported more than their bodies imported in 80%, 20%, and 16% across all streams and years for sediments, P, and N, respectively. A bioassay experiment indicated that the P exported by salmon is directly available for use by primary producers in the downstream lake. These results demonstrate that salmon not only move nutrients upstream on large spatial scales via their migration from the ocean and subsequent death, but also redistribute matter and nutrients on finer spatial scales through their spawning activities.     

The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone over the continental United States

A sensitivity study is performed to examine the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on the NOAA-EPA operational Air Quality Forecast Guidance over continental USA. We examined six LBCS: the fixed profile LBC, three global LBCs, and two ozonesonde LBCs for summer 2006. The simulated results from these six runs are compared to IONS ozonesonde and surface ozone measurements from August 1 to 5, 2006. The choice of LBCs can affect the ozone prediction throughout the domain, and mainly influence the predictions in upper altitude or near inflow boundaries, such as the US west coast and the northern border. Statistical results shows that the use of global model predictions for LBCs could improve the correlation coefficients of surface ozone prediction over the US west coast, but could also increase the ozone mean bias in most regions of the domain depending on global models. In this study, the use of the MOZART (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers) prediction for CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) LBC shows a better surface ozone prediction than that with fixed LBC, especially over the US west coast. The LBCs derived from ozonesonde measurements yielded better O₃ correlations in the upper troposphere.     

Cultivation of garden vegetables in Peoria Pool sediments from the Illinois River: a case study in trace element accumulation and dietary exposures

This case study was conducted to evaluate the use of reclaimed lake sediment as a growth media for vegetable production and to estimate whether accumulation of micronutrients and heavy metals in the vegetables would impact human nutrition or health, respectively. Five plant species, bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), broccoli (Brassica oleracea L.), carrot (Daucus carota L.), pepper (Capsicum annum L.), and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.), were grown in pots containing either reclaimed sediment from the Illinois River or a reference soil. Edible and vegetative tissues from the plants were analyzed for 19 elements, including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn. Tomato and pepper grown in sediment showed significantly greater biomass and yield as compared to plants from the reference soil. Elemental analysis of the tissues revealed that Zn and Mo were the only elements that were significantly greater in sediment-grown plants on a consistent basis. While significant, Zn concentrations were no more than 3-fold higher than those in plants from the reference soil. The same trend was observed for Mo, except for bean tissues, which showed a 10-fold greater concentration in sediment-grown plants. The projected dietary intake of Cu, Mo, and Zn from consumption of sediment-grown vegetable tissues was significantly higher than for soil-grown plants, although the contribution to the recommended dietary allowances (RDAs) for these elements was substantial only for Mo. Intake of sediment-grown beans would have provided 500% of the dietary Mo RDA. While this is below the lowest observable adverse effect level (LOAEL) value for this element, there is no evidence to indicate that there would be a nutritional or therapeutic benefit from the consumption of bean containing this level of Mo. The dietary exposures to Cd and Pb would have been below the pertinent limits for all age and gender groups with the exception of the cumulative dietary Cd exposure to the 1-3 year age group. The results from this study suggest that this reclaimed sediment can be utilized for the production of vegetables intended for human consumption. The results from this case study also suggest that sediment material with similar physicochemical characteristics and elemental concentrations that fall within the pertinent regulatory guidelines should also be a suitable and safe medium for vegetable production.     

Validation of an electronic device for measuring driving exposure

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to evaluate an on-board diagnostic system (CarChip) for collecting driving exposure data in older drivers. METHODS: Drivers (N = 20) aged 60 to 86 years from Winnipeg and surrounding communities participated. Information on driving exposure was obtained via the CarChip and global positioning system (GPS) technology on a driving course, and obtained via the CarChip and surveys over a week of driving. Velocities and distances were measured over the road course to validate the accuracy of the CarChip compared to GPS for those parameters. RESULTS: The results show that the CarChip does provide valid distance measurements and slightly lower maximum velocities than GPS measures. From the results obtained in this study, it was determined that retrospective self-reports of weekly driving distances are inaccurate. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, an on-board diagnostic system (OBDII) electronic device like the CarChip can provide valid and detailed information about driving exposure that would be useful for studies of crash rates or driving behavior.     

Impact of water on CO2 capture by amino acid ionic liquids

The reversible capture of CO₂ from fossil-fueled industries and the absorption of CO₂ for natural-gas-sweetening purposes are industrial issues closely related to very important environmental, economical, and technological concerns. Biological amino acids can be used for task-specific ionic liquids for reversible CO₂ capture. Several groups have reported efficient and reversible CO₂ capture by such ionic liquids under rigorously dry conditions. However, we have observed that CO₂ capture by amino acid ionic liquids is hugely impacted by the presence of water. In addition, the amino acid anions appear to play only a transitory role in the CO₂ capture in the first minutes of exposure to a wet CO₂ stream. Here, we studied the interaction of two ionic liquids—tetramethylammonium glycinate ([N₁₁₁₁][Gly]) and tetraethylammonium prolinate ([N₂₂₂₂][Pro])—with CO₂ under wet conditions, by ¹³C-NMR. Results show that CO₂ is initially captured in a carbamate form by the amine-functionalized anions of these salts. This capture mode is unambiguously confirmed by a single-crystal X-ray study of the CO₂-ionic liquid complex. However, in solution, as additional CO₂ is added, the carbamate releases the covalently bound CO₂, and the CO₂ remaining in solution shifts in form to an equilibrium mixture of carbonate and bicarbonate. Indeed, when the amount of CO₂ present in the system exceeds about one-half mole per mole of ionic liquid present, the ionic liquid–carbamate complex is detected in only trace amounts, and the neutralized amino acids are readily identifiable by NMR.