Noisy and definitely not normal: responding to wicked issues in the environment,energy and health

Attempts by researchers and policy-makers to address the ‘wicked’ issues which pervade environmental policy usually revolve around attempting – or recommending – both more participatory and transparent, and more systematic and evidence-based, policy-making. Post-normal science (PNS), with its ‘extended peer community’, has emerged as one approach, whilst others focus on procedural reforms of the policy process, particularly on enhancing democratic decision-making. This paper applies a novel analytical framework to a primarily documentary analysis of three cases we argue are wicked—Canadian regulatory review of health products and food, European union (EU) environmental thematic strategies, and United Kingdom (UK) energy and climate change policy. It explores how various responses to wicked issues are implemented, through the ‘lenses’ of PNS and, more generally, ‘democratic and effective decision-making’. It finds such responses are often limited by practical and fundamental barriers relating to handling of uncertainty, issue framing, participation, power, politics, and attitude to evidence. We draw conclusions about future research on PNS, particularly the need to more clearly relate theory to different strands of literature on the evidence–policy-making relationship, and to continue empirical testing.     

Projecting effects of improvements in passive safety of the New Zealand light vehicle fleet

OBJECTIVES: In the year 2000, as part of the process for setting New Zealand road safety targets, a projection was made for a reduction in social cost of 15.5 percent associated with improvements in crashworthiness, which is a measure of the occupant protection of the light passenger vehicle fleet. Since that document was produced, new estimates of crashworthiness have become available, allowing for a more accurate projection. The objective of this paper is to describe a methodology for projecting changes in casualty rates associated with passive safety features and to apply this methodology to produce a new prediction. METHOD: The shape of the age distribution of the New Zealand light passenger vehicle fleet was projected to 2010. Projected improvements in crashworthiness and associated reductions in social cost were also modeled based on historical trends. These projections of changes in the vehicle fleet age distribution and of improvements in crashworthiness together provided a basis for estimating the future performance of the fleet in terms of secondary safety. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A large social cost reduction of about 22 percent for 2010 compared to the year 2000 was predicted due to the expected huge impact of improvements in passive vehicle features on road trauma in New Zealand. Countries experiencing improvements in their vehicle fleets can also expect significant reductions in road injury compared to a less crashworthy passenger fleet. Such road safety gains can be analyzed using some of the methodology described here.     

Soil C storage as affected by tillage and straw management: An assessment using field measurements and model predictions

Soil tillage and straw management are both known to affect soil organic matter dynamics. However, it is still unclear whether, or how, these two practices interact to affect soil C storage, and data from long term studies are scarce. Soil C models may help to overcome some of these problems. Here we compare direct measurements of soil C contents from a 9 year old tillage experiment to predictions made by RothC and a cohort model. Soil samples were collected from plots in an Irish winter wheat field that were exposed to either conventional (CT) or shallow non-inversion tillage (RT). Crop residue was removed from half of the RT and CT plots after harvest, allowing us to test for interactive effects between tillage practices and straw management. Within the 0–30 cm layer, soil C contents were significantly increased both by straw retention and by RT. Tillage and straw management did not interact to determine the total amount of soil C in this layer. The highest average soil C contents (68.9 ± 2.8 Mg C ha^?1) were found for the combination of RT with straw incorporation, whereas the lowest average soil C contents (57.3 ± 2.3 Mg C ha^?1) were found for CT with straw removal. We found no significant treatment effects on soil C contents at lower depths. Both models suggest that at our site, RT stimulates soil C storage largely by decreasing the decomposition of old soil C. Extrapolating our findings to the rest of Ireland, we estimate that RT will lead to C mitigation ranging from 0.18 to 1.0 Mg C ha^?1 y^?1 relative to CT, with the mitigation rate depending on the initial SOC level. However, on-farm assessments are still needed to determine whether RT management practices can be adopted under Irish conditions without detrimental effects on crop yield.     

Describing Damage to Stream Modification Projects in Constrained Settings

Complex relationships between stream functions and processes make evaluation of stream modification projects difficult. Informed by vague objectives and minimal monitoring data, post‐construction project evaluations can often be a subjective attribution of success or failure. This article provides a simple framework to rapidly describe the degree of damage in stream modification projects performed in constrained settings. Based on widely accepted evaluations of physical habitat quality and stream stability, the damage states framework describes a continuum of damage in multiple categories that relate natural stream functions to the often desired state of static equilibrium. Given that channel form is closely related to stream function, it follows that changes to the channel form result in changes in function. The damage states focus on damage to flow hydraulics, sediment transport and channel equilibrium, hydraulic, and geomorphic parameters that describe basic stream functioning and support higher level functions in the modified channel. The damage states can be used in decision making as a systematic method to determine the need for repair and design adjustments.     

Exploring new ways of assessing the effect of regulation on environmental management

Studies indicate that while a variety of factors positively influence voluntary environmental management, regulatory pressures are among the most important. However, most research examines samples representing large manufacturers or single industries, essentially assuming a level of regulatory constraint. Using a sample of heterogeneous facilities, this study finds that facilities can be classified according to the level of regulatory constraint, and that group membership impacts the choice of environmental management strategy when assessed within a utility maximization framework. More extensively regulated facilities implement more individual environmental management practices, but participate in fewer formal voluntary environmental programs (VEPs), compared to other facilities.     

Human Population Density and Prediction of Local Plant Extinction in Britain

Throughout the world, and particularly in densely populated countries like Britain, human activities exert a dominant influence on the abundance of both plants and animals. The commonness and rarity of plants in Britain has been plausibly linked to human land use. In Western Europe the identity of increasing and decreasing plants appears to depend on human population density, which is itself a crude measure of human impact on the landscape. The publication of new data on the changing distributions of scarce British plants allowed us to investigate the relationship between loss of scarce plants and human population density in Britain. Our results confirm that a direct effect of human population density on local plant extinctions can be detected at the regional scale in Britain. Although intensive agriculture is conventionally regarded as the greatest threat to British wildlife, our analysis suggests that urbanization may be at least as significant a danger.     

The relative importance of COVID-19 pandemic impacts on biodiversity conservation globally

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on almost all aspects of human society and endeavor; the natural world and its conservation have not been spared. Through a process of expert consultation, we identified and categorized, into 19 themes and 70 subthemes, the ways in which biodiversity and its conservation have been or could be affected by the pandemic globally. Nearly 60% of the effects have been broadly negative. Subsequently, we created a compendium of all themes and subthemes, each with explanatory text, and in August 2020 a diverse group of experienced conservationists with expertise from across sectors and geographies assessed each subtheme for its likely impact on biodiversity conservation globally. The 9 subthemes ranked highest all have a negative impact. These were, in rank order, governments sidelining the environment during their economic recovery, reduced wildlife-based tourism income, increased habitat destruction, reduced government funding, increased plastic and other solid waste pollution, weakening of nature-friendly regulations and their enforcement, increased illegal harvest of wild animals, reduced philanthropy, and threats to survival of conservation organizations. In combination, these impacts present a worrying future of increased threats to biodiversity conservation but reduced capacity to counter them. The highest ranking positive impact, at 10, was the beneficial impact of wildlife-trade restrictions. More optimistically, among impacts ranked 11-20, 6 were positive and 4 were negative. We hope our assessment will draw attention to the impacts of the pandemic and, thus, improve the conservation community's ability to respond to such threats in the future.     

The boll weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) feeding process: A simulation model

A model is presented for predicting boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, feeding damage to cotton. The model uses appropriate probability theory based on behavioral components of male and nonreproducing female boll weevils and includes the effects of (1) differential feeding site preferences, (2) previous damage to the sites, and (3) individual insect behavior extended to feeding damage caused by a population of insects. The model is sensitive to both crop and insect parameters. An example of how this model can be used in an insect-crop ecosystem simulation is offered.     

Local authorities and sustainable development: Turning policies into practical action through performance review—a case study of the London borough of hackney

Local authorities are increasingly undertaking policy initiatives which aim to achieve local sustainability. Indeed, the rapid development in this area since its first tentative steps in the late 1980s is very impressive. However, it is legitimate to question whether any real progress has been made in improving local environmental conditions. This is almost impossible to determine as very few have translated policy rhetoric into measurable environmental achievement. Although the development of sustainability indicators will, in the long term, provide some means of measuring success, few authorities have the necessary precursor for its achievement in place: performance-based environmental programmes. This important stage of development has been all but missed in the rush for national and international credibility, often at the expense of local communities and their environment rather than for their benefit. This paper examines the activities of one local authority, the London Borough of Hackney, and its efforts to translate policy principals into practical Action for the Environment through the mechanism of performance review. It is concluded that performance review has a valuable role to play in achieving environmental improvements to help move society towards sustainability but, like any mechanism, there are limitations in its use which need to be acknowledged if it is to be used effectively. These are explored in detail in the paper in the hope that they assist others when developing similar performance-based environmental programmes.