Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Offspring sex ratios reflect lack of repayment by auxiliary males in a cooperatively breeding passerine

The repayment hypothesis posits that primary sex ratios in cooperative species should be biased towards the helping sex because these offspring “repay” a portion of their cost through helping behavior and therefore are less expensive to produce. However, many cooperatively breeding birds and mammals do not show the predicted bias in the primary sex ratio. Recent theoretical work has suggested that the repayment hypothesis should only hold when females gain a large fitness advantage from the presence of auxiliary adults in the group. When auxiliaries provide little or no fitness advantage, competition between relatives should lead to sex ratios biased towards the dispersing (non-helping) sex. We examined the benefits auxiliaries provide to females and corresponding offspring sex ratios in the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus), a cooperatively breeding Australian bird with male auxiliary helpers. We found that auxiliaries provide little or no benefit to female reproductive success or survival. As predicted, the population primary sex ratio was biased towards daughters, the dispersing sex, and females with auxiliaries produced female-biased broods whereas females without auxiliaries produced unbiased broods. Moreover, offspring sex ratios were more strongly biased toward females in years when auxiliaries were more common in the population. These results suggest that offspring sex ratios are associated with competition among the non-dispersing sex in this species, and also that females may use cues to assess local breeding opportunities for their offspring.     

Experimental investigation of hydrogen–air deflagrations and detonations in semi-confined flat layers

This paper presents results of an experimental investigation on the deflagration and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in an obstructed (blockage ratio BR = 50%), semi-confined flat layer filled with uniform hydrogen–air mixtures. The effect of mixture reactivity depending on flat layer thickness and its width is studied to evaluate the critical conditions for sonic flame propagation and the possibility for detonation onset. The experiments were performed in a transparent, rectangular channel with a length of 2.5 m. The flat layer thickness was varied from 0.06 to 0.24 m and the experiments were performed for different channel widths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The experimental results show flame velocity vs. hydrogen concentration for different thicknesses and widths of the semi-confined flat layer. Three different flame propagation regimes were observed: slow subsonic flame (M << 1), sonic deflagration (M ～ 1) and detonation (M >> 1). It is shown that flame acceleration (FA) to sonic speed is independent of the width of the flat layer. The critical expansion ratio for effective flame acceleration to sonic speed was found to be linearly dependent on the reciprocal layer thickness.     

Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.     

Contrasting Landscape Influences on Sediment Supply and Stream Restoration Priorities in Northern Fennoscandia (Sweden and Finland) and Coastal British Columbia

Sediment size and supply exert a dominant control on channel structure. We review the role of sediment supply in channel structure, and how regional differences in sediment supply and landuse affect stream restoration priorities. We show how stream restoration goals are best understood within a common fluvial geomorphology framework defined by sediment supply, storage, and transport. Landuse impacts in geologically young landscapes with high sediment yields (e.g., coastal British Columbia) typically result in loss of instream wood and accelerated sediment inputs from bank erosion, logging roads, hillslopes and gullies. In contrast, northern Sweden and Finland are landscapes with naturally low sediment yields caused by low relief, resistant bedrock, and abundant mainstem lakes that act as sediment traps. Landuse impacts involved extensive channel narrowing, removal of obstructions, and bank armouring with boulders to facilitate timber floating, thereby reducing sediment supply from bank erosion while increasing export through higher channel velocities. These contrasting landuse impacts have pushed stream channels in opposite directions (aggradation versus degradation) within a phase-space defined by sediment transport and supply. Restoration in coastal British Columbia has focused on reducing sediment supply (through bank and hillslope stabilization) and restoring wood inputs. In contrast, restoration in northern Fennoscandia (Sweden and Finland) has focused on channel widening and removal of bank-armouring boulders to increase sediment supply and retention. These contrasting restoration priorities illustrate the consequences of divergent regional landuse impacts on sediment supply, and the utility of planning restoration activities within a mechanistic sediment supply-transport framework.     

Knowledge gain and behavioral change in citizen-science programs

Citizen-science programs are often touted as useful for advancing conservation literacy, scientific knowledge, and increasing scientific-reasoning skills among the public. Guidelines for collaboration among scientists and the public are lacking and the extent to which these citizen-science initiatives change behavior is relatively unstudied. Over two years, we studied 82 participants in a three-day program that included education about non-native invasive plants and collection of data on the occurrence of those plants. Volunteers were given background knowledge about invasive plant ecology and trained on a specific protocol for collecting invasive plant data. They then collected data and later gathered as a group to analyze data and discuss responsible environmental behavior with respect to invasive plants. We tested whether participants without experience in plant identification and with little knowledge of invasive plants increased their knowledge of invasive species ecology, participation increased knowledge of scientific methods, and participation affected behavior. Knowledge of invasive plants increased on average 24%, but participation was insufficient to increase understanding of how scientific research is conducted. Participants reported increased ability to recognize invasive plants and increased awareness of effects of invasive plants on the environment, but this translated into little change in behavior regarding invasive plants. Potential conflicts between scientific goals, educational goals, and the motivation of participants must be considered during program design.     

Modeling Dinophysis in Western Andalucía using an autoregressive hidden Markov model

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Dinophysis spp. can produce diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DST) including okadaic acid and dinophysistoxins, and some strains can also produce non-diarrheic...     

Thermal conversion of municipal solid waste via hydrothermal carbonization: comparison of carbonization products to products from current waste management techniques

Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a novel thermal conversion process that may be a viable means for managing solid waste streams while minimizing greenhouse gas production and producing residual material with intrinsic value. HTC is a wet, relatively low temperature (180-350 °C) thermal conversion process that has been shown to convert biomass to a carbonaceous residue referred to as hydrochar. Results from batch experiments indicate HTC of representative waste materials is feasible, and results in the majority of carbon (45-75% of the initially present carbon) remaining within the hydrochar. Gas production during the batch experiments suggests that longer reaction periods may be desirable to maximize the production of energy-favorable products. If using the hydrochar for applications in which the carbon will remain stored, results suggest that the gaseous products from HTC result in fewer g CO(2)-equivalent emissions than the gases associated with landfilling, composting, and incineration. When considering the use of hydrochar as a solid fuel, more energy can be derived from the hydrochar than from the gases resulting from waste degradation during landfilling and anaerobic digestion, and from incineration of food waste. Carbon emissions resulting from the use of the hydrochar as a fuel source are smaller than those associated with incineration, suggesting HTC may serve as an environmentally beneficial alternative to incineration. The type and extent of environmental benefits derived from HTC will be dependent on hydrochar use/the purpose for HTC (e.g., energy generation or carbon storage).     

Compassionate versus consequentialist conservation

Ethical treatment of wildlife and consideration of animal welfare have become important themes in conservation, but ethical perspectives on how best to protect wild animals and promote their welfare are diverse. There are advantages to the consequentialist harms ethical framework applied in managing wild herbivores for conservation purposes. To minimize harms while achieving conservation goals, we argue that overabundant wild herbivores should in many cases be managed through consumptive in situ killing. Advantages of this policy are that the negative welfare states imposed on animals last only a short time; remaining animals are not deprived of positive welfare states (e.g., linked to rearing offspring); poor welfare states of animals in overabundant populations are avoided (e.g., starvation); negative welfare impacts on heterospecifics through resource depletion (i.e., competition) are prevented; harvesting meat reduces the number of (agricultural) animals raised to supply meat; and minimal costs maximize funding for other wildlife management and conservation priorities. Alternative ethical approaches to our consequentialist framework include deontology (containing animal rights) and virtue ethics, some of which underpin compassionate conservation. These alternative ethical approaches emphasize the importance of avoiding intentional killing of animals but, if no population reduction occurs, are likely to impose considerable unintentional harms on overabundant wildlife and indirectly harm heterospecifics through ineffective population reduction. If nonlethal control is used, it is likely that overabundant animals would be deprived of positive welfare states and economic costs would be prohibitive. We encourage conservation stakeholders to consider animal-welfare consequentialism as an ethical approach to minimize harms to the animals under their care as well as other animals that policies may affect while at the same time pursuing conservation goals.