Expertise,safety, reliability,and decision making: practical industrial experience

This paper presents our practical experience of expert opinion deduced from concrete field applications, concerning mainly safety and reliability modeling. First, expertise is defined and the approach used for eliciting expertise is shortly described. Quality and value of information from experts are important challenges for decision making from risk analysis. Expertise is very useful for supplying data when not enough field observations are available for estimating parameter uncertainties and quantifying risk analysis models, which are inputs to a decision-making process. Applications presented herein concern mainly the role of expert judgment in reliability.     

Use of Descriptors of Ecosystem Functioning for Monitoring a National Park Network: A Remote Sensing Approach

Baseline assessments and monitoring of protected areas are essential for making management decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of management practices, and tracking the effects of global changes. For these purposes, the analysis of functional attributes of ecosystems (i.e., different aspects of the exchange of matter and energy) has advantages over the traditional use of structural attributes, like a quicker response to disturbances and the fact that they are easily monitored through remote sensing. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal patterns of different aspects of the ecosystem functioning of the Spanish national parks and their response to environmental changes between 1982 and 2006. To do so, we used the NOAA/AVHRR-GIMMS dataset of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a linear estimator of the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation intercepted by vegetation, which is the main control of carbon gains. Nearly all parks have significantly changed during the last 25 years: The radiation interception has increased, the contrast between the growing and nongrowing seasons has diminished, and the dates of maximum and minimum interception have advanced. Some parks concentrated more changes than others and the degree of change varied depending on their different environmental conditions, management, and conservation histories. Our approach identified reference conditions and temporal changes for different aspects of ecosystem functioning, which can be used for management purposes of protected areas in response to global changes.     

An Assessment of Oil Pollution in the Coastal Zone of Patagonia,Argentina

The Patagonian coast is considered a relatively pristine environment. However, studies conducted along coastal Patagonia have showed hydrocarbon pollution mostly concentrated at ports that have fishing, oil loading, general merchant, and/or tourist activities. A high value of total aliphatic hydrocarbons (TAH) was found at the Rawson fishing port (741 μg/g dw). In other ports with and without petroleum-related activities, hydrocarbon values were approximately 100 μg/g dw. The highest values for TAH and total aromatic hydrocarbons (TArH) were found in Faro Aristizábal, north of San Jorge gulf (1304 and 737 μg/g dw, respectively). This is very likely the result of petroleum-related activities at the Comodoro Rivadavia, Caleta Cordova, and Caleta Olivia ports located within this gulf. In other coastal areas away from potential anthropogenic sources, hydrocarbon values were less than 2 and 3 μg/g dw for TAH and TArH, respectively. This review of published and unpublished information suggests that ports are important oil pollution sources in the Patagonian coast. More detailed studies are needed to evaluate the area affected by port activities, to understand the mechanisms of hydrocarbon distribution in surrounding environments, and to assess bioaccumulation in marine organisms. Despite that some regulations exist to control oil pollution derived from port and docked vessel activities, new and stricter management guidelines should be implemented.     

Size distributions of fine and ultrafine particles in the city of Strasbourg: correlation between number of particles and concentrations of NO(x) and SO(2) gases and some soluble ions concentration determination

An Electrical Low Pressure Impactor (ELPI) was used during spring and autumn 2003 in the centre of Strasbourg for the measurement of atmospheric aerosols size distribution. The concentration of NO(x) and SO(2) in air was simultaneously measured with specific analysers. Samples were collected in the range 0.007-10 microm in equivalent aerodynamic diameter size. Number distributions are representative of a pollution originating from urban traffic with a particle size distribution exhibiting a nucleation mode below 29 nm and an accumulation mode around 80 nm in size. A mean particle density equal to 39000+/-35000 total particles per cm(3) with a size ranging from 7 to 10 microm was obtained after a sampling period of 2 weeks in spring. About 86.9% of the number of particles have an aerodynamic diameter below 0.1 microm and 13.1% between 0.1 and 1 microm. Correlation coefficients between the number of particles impacted on each ELPI plate and gas concentrations (SO(2) and NO(x)) showed that the numbers of particles with diameter between 0.10 and 0.62 microm are highly related to the NO(x) concentration. This result indicates that particles are traffic induced since NO(x) is mainly emitted by cars as shown by measurements on various sites. Particles are less clearly correlated to the SO(2) concentration. Particle analysis on different ELPI plates for a sampling period of 2 weeks in autumn showed high level of soluble NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-) and NH(4)(+) ions. Indeed, up to 90% b.w. of these three species were found in the particle range 0.1-1 microm. The formation of particulate NH(4)NO(3) is favoured by high NO(x) concentration, which induces the formation of gaseous HNO(3).     

Definition of Homogeneous Environmental Management Units for the Catalan Coast

Geographical areas constitute the basic implementation locus for integrated coastal zone management strategies and activities. Because the definition of territorial planning objectives may be affected by socioeconomic and environmental characteristics, one of the main steps in the process involves dividing the coast into homogeneous environmental management units (HEMUs). This article presents a general and simple method for regionalizing the landside of a coastal zone into HEMUs and illustrates it through application to the Catalan coast. Socioeconomic and natural (biophysical) subsystems were selected as the most appropriate dimensions of the regionalization process. Dimensions were described using 11 spatial themes, which were managed in a geographic information system environment that proved to be an adequate tool for the purpose. A final coastal zone map of four classes of HEMUs connected to local administrative units was obtained, and because it reflects the current natural and socioeconomic dynamics, it can be considered as an initial step in the planning process for the Catalan coast. Although the proposed method was developed based on the characteristics of the Catalan coast, it is general enough to be adapted and applied to most developed or developing coastal areas.     

Specialization of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema scapterisci with its mutualistic Xenorhabdus symbiont

The level of specialization of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema scapterisci with its native Xenorhabdus symbiont was investigated by testing (1) the influence of non-native bacterial strains on nematode fitness within an insect-host (Galleria mellonella) and (2) specificity of the association between the nematode infective juveniles and non-native bacteria. All non-native Xenorhabdus spp. or Photorhabdus spp. strains tested were mutualistically associated with other entomopathogenic nematodes in nature. We showed that most of the Xenorhabdus spp. strains tested led to an insignificant difference of the nematode's fitness compared to the one obtained with the native bacterium. Conversely, Photorhabdus spp. strains almost entirely abolished nematode reproduction. The phylogenetic analysis of bacterial strains tested, showed that there was a negative correlation between S. scapterisci's reproduction rate with a bacterial strain and the genetic distance of this bacterial strain from the native one. We also showed that the native bacterium was the only one which was transmitted by S. scapterisci's infective juveniles. All these results, suggested a specialization between S. scapterisci and its native Xenorhabdus. As the same phenomenon was already demonstrated in the association between S. carpocapsae and X. nematophila, specialization between partners would not be an exception in entomopathogenic nematode-bacteria interactions. Nevertheless, S. scapterisci showed a dramatically higher compatibility with non-native Xenorhabdus spp. strains than did S. carpocapsae, suggesting differences in the co-evolutionary processes between nematodes and bacteria in these two model systems.Table 1 List of the bacterial strains, native nematode species with their geographical origin, accession numbers of bacterial 16S rDNA partial sequences and number of combination experiments for each bacterium tested

Use of thermal analysis techniques (TG-DSC) for the characterization of diverse organic municipal waste streams to predict biological stability prior to land application

The use of organic municipal wastes as soil amendments is an increasing practice that can divert significant amounts of waste from landfill, and provides a potential source of nutrients and organic matter to ameliorate degraded soils. Due to the high heterogeneity of organic municipal waste streams, it is difficult to rapidly and cost-effectively establish their suitability as soil amendments using a single method. Thermal analysis has been proposed as an evolving technique to assess the stability and composition of the organic matter present in these wastes. In this study, three different organic municipal waste streams (i.e., a municipal waste compost (MC), a composted sewage sludge (CS) and a thermally dried sewage sludge (TS)) were characterized using conventional and thermal methods. The conventional methods used to test organic matter stability included laboratory incubation with measurement of respired C, and spectroscopic methods to characterize chemical composition. Carbon mineralization was measured during a 90-day incubation, and samples before and after incubation were analyzed by chemical (elemental analysis) and spectroscopic (infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance) methods. Results were compared with those obtained by thermogravimetry (TG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques. Total amounts of CO₂ respired indicated that the organic matter in the TS was the least stable, while that in the CS was the most stable. This was confirmed by changes detected with the spectroscopic methods in the composition of the organic wastes due to C mineralization. Differences were especially pronounced for TS, which showed a remarkable loss of aliphatic and proteinaceous compounds during the incubation process. TG, and especially DSC analysis, clearly reflected these differences between the three organic wastes before and after the incubation. Furthermore, the calculated energy density, which represents the energy available per unit of organic matter, showed a strong correlation with cumulative respiration. Results obtained support the hypothesis of a potential link between the thermal and biological stability of the studied organic materials, and consequently the ability of thermal analysis to characterize the maturity of municipal organic wastes and composts.     

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.     

The theory of planned behavior as mediator of the effect of parental supervision: a study of intentions to violate driving rules in a representative sample of adolescents

INTRODUCTION: The study reported here was designed to test the ability of the theory of planned behavior to mediate the effect of parental supervision on adolescents' intentions to violate driving rules. METHOD: A representative sample of 1,654 adolescents completed questionnaires during individual and anonymous interviews carried out at their schools. RESULTS: Results showed that age, gender, prior risky driving-behavior, and parental supervision significantly predict intentions to violate driving rules. Attitude and the subjective norm partially mediate the effect of age, prior behavior, and parental supervision. Perceived behavioral control does not predict intention and is not predicted by other variables. IMPACT: The results suggest that social cognitive variables partially mediate the effect of parenting practices such as supervision.