Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Pool of Dust Particles over the Asian Continent: Balloon-borne Optical Particle Counter and Ground-based Lidar Measurements at Dunhuang, China

Measurements of aerosols were made in 2001 and 2002 at Dunhuang (40 degrees 00'N, 94 degrees 30'E), China to understand the nature of atmospheric particles over the desert areas in the Asian continent. Balloon-borne measurements with an optical particle counter suggested that particle size and concentration had noticeable peaks in super micron size range not only in the boundary mixing layer but also in the free troposphere. Super-micron particle concentration largely decreased in the mid tropopause (from 5 to 10 km; above sea level, a.s.l.). Lidar measurements made during August 2002 at Dunhuang suggested the possibility that mixing of dust particles occurred from near the ground to about 6 km even under calm weather conditions, and a large depolarization ratio of particulate matter was found in the aerosol layer. The top of the aerosol layer was found at heights of nearly 6 km (a.s.l.). It is strongly suggested that nonspherical dust particles (Kosa particles) frequently diffused in the free atmosphere over the Taklamakan desert through small-scale turbulences and are possible sources of dust particles of weak Kosa events that have been identified in the free troposphere not only in spring but also in summer over Japanese archipelago. Electron microscopic experiments of the particles collected in the free troposphere confirmed that coarse and nonspherical particles observed by the mineral particle were major components of coarse mode (diameter larger than 1 microm) below about 5 km over Dunhuang, China.     

中国东南沿海大(中)型浅成中低温热液矿床—斑岩型矿床评价的地质准则、成矿模式及其找矿意义

本文总结中国东南沿海高钾钙碱性—双峰式火山岩带中已勘查大中型矿床成矿环境的共性：矿床所处区域构造的部位、成岩与成矿时代、矿床与岩浆成因类型、火山构造及其基底构造控矿性、矿床与爆发角砾岩、矿床与矿化类型叠加与共生、矿化与蚀变的分带往、矿床定位深度与剥蚀深度。作者认为这八点可作为找寻与评价大（中）型矿床的地质准则。通过火山地质与矿床地质统一的研究提出本区晚中生代以火山为中心地热体系的成矿模式。并就三个方面作类比：①与现代火山地热体系成矿作用类比；②以紫金山高硫型浅成低温热液矿床与世界同类型矿床作比较；③与环太平洋其他火山岩带同类型矿床模式作类比．通过建立本区的模式与类比获得进一步找矿中值得重视的一些思路．     

天津地区大气污染状况和气溶胶硫酸盐的研究

我们于1980—1981年对天津市大气污染物浓度做了同步监测,对天津市大气污染状况,二氧化硫转化为硫酸盐的过程及其对大气能见度的影响做了研究。以超C_i几率和的方法处理数据,研究结果表明,大气污染以早晨最严重,傍晚次之,中午较轻:冬季比夏季污染严重。各种污染物中以硫酸盐对大气能见度的影响最大,总颗粒物次之。当大气相对湿度大于70%时,对大气能见度的影响比较突出。颗粒物中的苯溶物对大气能见度有一定的影响。城市中相对湿度高时硫酸盐浓度大,可能是产生冬季烟雾事件的原因。下风方向的硫酸根浓度与二氧化硫浓度的比值和硫酸根含硫浓度与大气总硫浓度的比值均比上风方向相应的数值高,说明城市燃煤烟气是硫酸盐的来源。城市中硫酸根浓度与二氧化硫浓度的相关系数为0.77,硫酸根与颗粒物浓度的相关系数为0.95。在形成硫酸根的过程中二氧化硫浓度和颗粒物可能有贡献。以一维有源简化模式估算二氧化硫转化为硫酸根的速率常数,约为2.3±1.1%/hr,冬季约1.5%/hr。二氧化硫的迁移距离约为17—340km。     

加强高校干部队伍群众监督实践的探讨

加强干部队伍监督管理是高校组织工作的一个重要方面,群众监督将发挥其无法替代的作用。本文对高校干部队伍监督管理的目标、内容、重点,以及在高校干部管理中的特点及难点作了分析,对完善领导干部监督机制,特别是对其中的群众监督的实践进行了深入思考和探索。