W_q方法及σ_H方法在华东地区中强震预报中的应用

应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

六个行业熔铅作业防毒工程技术措施综合评价(第一部分)

在对印刷、铁路车辆、电缆压铅、铅蓄电池、铅盐、铅冶炼这六个行业的熔铅作业以及对铅蓄电池和铅盐生产的铅尘作业中防毒工程技术措施调研的基础上,介绍了它们的基本情况。参照收集的国内外资料,采用定性及定量化的方法,对它们的防毒工程技术措施分别从工艺设备、排风罩类型、净化装置等得出优化选择结论,对还存在的问题进行讨论并提出建议。     

新疆主要自然灾害及其减灾策略

新疆是一个自然灾害较多的地区,地震灾害、地质灾害、气象灾害、洪水灾害都比较频繁。本文在概述、分析上述灾害的基础上,提出了减轻自然灾害的策略。     

均压防灭火定量分析技术研究及其应用

均压是防治煤矿自然发火的主要措施之一。针对均压应用中的定性分析方法及两点式均压方法的不足,提出了均压防灭火定量分析技术并开发了与采空区相连两个工作面间均压的计算机摸拟计算程序。阐述了程序均压原理、内容及应用实例。这项技术具有创新性和应用推广价值,可以提高均压防灭火技术应用的经济性和安全性     

可持续发展能力建设的理论分析与重构

本文从《２１ 世纪议程》所述的可持续发展能力的解释出发,首次定义了可持续发展能力建设的概念,全面阐术述了能力建设的基本概念和实质内涵;同时,从理论上论述了能力建设的现实意义、能力建设的途径以及能力建设在实施可持续发展战略中基础作用。     

江苏省洪涝灾害评估系统设计

为了迅速、合理地预测和评估洪涝灾害造成的经济损失,为防汛决策提供科学依据,从江苏省洪涝灾害防治的实际需求出发,进行了江苏省洪涝灾情评估系统的总体设计,并阐明了系统的特点,结构和功能。     

浅谈超低频电磁波异常与相关地震

介绍了锦州东港电力有限公司地震台多年来应用超低频电磁信息探索地震前兆所总结出的异常形态分别与远震、近震、地方震的对应实例,揭示了ＵＬＦ电磁波异常与将要发生地震映震的一些初步规律,说明了电磁波是地震短临预报的好方法。     

Integrated energy management strategy of powertrain and cooling system for PHEV

ABSTRACT

Energy management strategy (EMS) is crucial in improving the fuel economy of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Existing studies on EMS mostly manage powertrain and cooling system separately which cannot get the minimum total energy consumption. This paper aims to propose a novel EMS for a new type of dual-motor planetary-coupled PHEV, which considers cooling power demand and effect of temperature on fuel economy. Temperature-modified engine model, lithium-ion battery model, two motors, and cooling system models are established. Firstly, the separated EMS (S-EMS) is designed which manages powertrain and cooling system separately. Sequentially, after the analysis of thermal characteristics of the powertrain and cooling system, the thermal-based EMS (T-EMS) is then proposed to manage two systems coordinately. In T-EMS, cooling power demand and the charging/discharging energy of motors are calculated as equivalent fuel consumption and integrated into the object function. Besides, a fuzzy controller is also established to deicide the fuel-electricity equivalent factor with consideration of the effect of temperature and state of charge on powertrain efficiency. Finally, the hardware-in-loop experiment is carried out to validate the real-time effect of EMS under the New European Driving Cycle. The result shows that cooling power demand and temperature can significantly affect the fuel economy of the vehicle. T-EMS shows better performance in fuel economy than S-EMS. The equivalent fuel consumption of the cooling system of T-EMS decreases by 27% compared with that of S-EMS. The total equivalent fuel consumption over the entire trip of PHEV using T-EMS is reduced by 9.7%.     

Estimation of 14CO2 flux at soil-atmosphere interface and distribution of 14C in forest ecosystem

To realize the dynamical behavior of 14C among exchangeable carbon reservoirs in terrestrial environment, a method for in situ determination of 14CO2 flux at soil-atmosphere interface and a high flow rate CO2 sampler were developed. This method allowed us to collect integrated quantity of CO2 for determining 14C activity over an extended time period under environmental conditions with minimal site disturbance. The 14CO2 flux from ground surface was estimated to be 1.59 x 10(-5) Bq m (-2) S (-1) in a forest floor with the method. The specific activities of 14C in environmental materials such as some biological and air samples were also determined in the vicinity of the place, where the flux measurement was made, to discuss the behavior of 14C in the forest ecosystem. The results indicated that fresh pine needles had a similar 14C specific activity to the atmospheric CO2 at the same height due to its fairly rapid equilibrium, 14C specific activity in the atmospheric CO2 has a concentration gradient near the ground surface and, at least in this site, CO2 with high 14C specific activity was generated by decomposition of soil organic matter which may be accumulated in soil as a result of former nuclear weapons tests.