Neglected biological patterns in the residuals

One of the fundamental assumptions underlying linear regression models is that the errors have a constant variance (i.e., homoscedastic). When this assumption is violated, standard errors from a regression can be biased and inconsistent, meaning that the associated p values and 95% confidence intervals cannot be trusted. The assumption of homoscedasticity is made for statistical reasons rather than biological reasons; in most real datasets, some form of heteroscedasticity is likely to exist. However, a survey of the behavioural ecology literature showed that only about 5% of articles explicitly mentioned heteroscedasticity, leaving 95% of articles in which heteroscedasticity was apparently absent. These results strongly indicate that the prevalence of heteroscedasticity is widely under-reported within behavioural ecology. The aim of this article is to raise awareness of heteroscedasticity amongst behavioural ecologists. Using topical examples from fields in behavioural ecology such as sexual dimorphism and animal personality, we highlight the biological importance of considering heteroscedasticity. We also emphasize that researchers should pay closer attention to the variance in their data and consider what factors could cause heteroscedasticity. In addition, we introduce some simple methods of dealing with heteroscedasticity. The two methods we focus on are: (1) incorporating variance functions within a generalised least squares (GLS) framework to model the functional form of heteroscedasticity and; (2) heteroscedasticity-consistent standard error (HCSE) estimators, which can be used when the functional form of heteroscedasticity is unknown. Using case studies, we show how both methods can influence the output from linear regression models. Finally, we hope that more researchers will consider heteroscedasticity as an important source of additional information about the particular biological process being studied, rather than an impediment to statistical analysis.     

Trans-Pacific dispersal of loggerhead turtle hatchlings inferred from numerical simulation modeling

We used Lagrangian numerical simulations to examine the trans-Pacific dispersal processes of loggerhead turtle hatchlings. Ten thousand simulated particles were released from each of the three nesting regions in Japan and tracked for 5 years. Results showed many particles moving eastward, drifting in the Kuroshio Current followed by the Kuroshio Extension Current. However, no particles reached Baja California, a known feeding area, through passive processes, indicating that trans-Pacific transportation requires active swimming by turtles. The duration of the trans-Pacific dispersal was estimated to be at least 1.6–3.4 years, with some turtles drifting in the Kuroshio Countercurrent and remaining in the western Pacific even after 5 years. This indicates that as revealed by previous genetic studies, not all loggerheads always disperse along a trans-Pacific route. The findings showed that survival and expected growth rates varied widely according to ambient temperatures during drifting, which in turn depended on nesting location.     

Defining behavioural syndromes and the role of ‘syndrome deviation’ in understanding their evolution

This commentary highlights multivariate tools that have been used by evolutionary biologists in the study of syndromes and their evolution and discusses the insights that these methods provide into evolutionary processes relative to the metric ‘syndrome deviation’ that has recently been proposed by Herczeg and Garamszegi (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 66:161–169, 2012). We clarify that non-zero phenotypic correlations arise from the joint influences of within- and between-individual correlations, whereas only non-zero between-individual correlations represent behavioural syndromes, and discuss how acknowledgement of this subtle difference between phenotypic and between-individual correlations affects the applicability of syndrome deviation for the study of behavioural syndromes.     

Epicuticular wax of large and small white butterflies,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Pieris brassicae</Emphasis> and<Emphasis Type="Italic"> P. rapae crucivora</Emphasis>: qualitative and quantitative comparison between diapause and non-diapause pupae

We compared the quantity and quality of the epicuticular wax of diapause and non-diapause pupae in two closely related Pieris species, P. brassicae and P. rapae crucivora. Main components of their epicuticular wax were identified as hydrocarbons. In P. brassicae, more than 95% of hydrocarbons were saturated regardless of whether the pupae were in diapause or not. In P. rapae crucivora, 93% of hydrocarbons were saturated in non-diapause pupae whereas in diapause pupae 41% were saturated and 59% unsaturated. From measurements of body surface area by nuclear magnetic resonance microimaging, we calculated the average thickness of the wax layer. The thickness in diapause and non-diapause pupae of P. brassicae was 800 and 160 nm, respectively. In P. rapae crucivora, the thickness was 195 nm in diapause and 11 nm in non-diapause. This is the first report to clarify the compositional difference in epicuticular wax between diapause and non-diapause pupae.     

Modeling Solute Transport in Volcanic Ash Soils with Cation Exchange and Anion Retardation

Groundwater under agricultural lands is often contaminated by nitrate. In southern Japan, aquifers are covered by volcanic ash soils that can leach nitrate to the groundwater. In this study, column experiments using two volcanic ash soils (Kuroboku and Akahoya) were carried out. A mixed solution of KNO₃ and K₂SO₄ was used in the leaching experiments. Based on the experiments, a reactive transport model was developed using the Constrained Interpolation Profile method for ion transport and used to calculate chemical equilibrium for the cation exchange reactions. Anion adsorption was modeled by retardation in the numerical model. The developed simulation model results were compared to results obtained by the reactive transport model PHAST. The developed model was shown to quite well reproduce general characteristics of the experimental results. Also, the developed model results agreed well with results from PHAST. Slight discrepancy between observed and calculated breakthrough curves was probably caused by ignoring the kinetic reaction in the model calculations.     

National implications of a 50% global reduction of greenhouse gases, and its feasibility in Japan

This paper considers three questions concerning a low-carbon society. The first is the implication of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007 (IPCC 2007b; http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/chpt.htm), the suggested limit of increase in average worldwide temperatures is 2–3°C above the current level, but is this consistent with a 50% reduction by 2050? Second, when a 50% reduction in global emissions is envisioned, what is the level of reduction needed in Japan? Should the 50% reduction be uniform for advanced industrial countries and developing countries, or differentiated based on a country’s emissions? Third, how feasible are emission reduction targets in Japan? Even if the emission reduction target set for each country takes into account climate change impact and equity, whether the target is technically, or socially and economically, acceptable is another matter.     

The combined effects of on-road and simulator training with feedback on older drivers' on-road performance: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Objective: A number of training programs that seek to improve driving performance among older drivers are available accompanied by a growing interest in their effectiveness. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine the combined effect of (1) basic in-class training (BT); (2) on-road training with individualized feedback (OR); and (3) training on a driving simulator (S).

Methods: Using a randomized controlled trial study design, 78 older drivers were randomly assigned to one of 3 groups (BT, BT + OR, or BT + OR + S). All participants completed a pre- and postintervention on-road driving evaluation on a standardized route. The driving evaluations were recorded using video and Global Positioning System (GPS) equipment and were scored by a blind assessor.

Results: The results indicated a significant reduction of approximately 30% in overall number of driving errors/omissions among participants in the BT + OR and the BT + OR + S groups in comparison to participants in the BT group.

Conclusions: This study adds to the mounting evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of individualized driver training in improving safe driving among older adults.     

Measurement of ethylene emission from Japanese red pine (Pinus densiflora) under field conditions in NOx-polluted areas

Emission of ethylene from the needles of Japanese red pine, Pinus densiflora, was measured in air-polluted areas in Hiroshima, Japan. We applied a suitable protocol to determine the rate of ethylene emission from the excised needles. The influence of excision of needles on ethylene emission was not detected during the first 4 h of incubation at 20 degrees C. Ethylene emissions were low in the unpolluted (clean) areas regardless of the altitude or season. The emission of stress ethylene increased with the atmospheric NO2 concentration, suggesting that atmospheric NOx or related substances induced the higher ethylene emission in the polluted areas (near urban and industrial areas). In all cases, 1-year-old needles emitted significantly larger amounts of ethylene than the current needles. Ethylene emission did not increase evenly in the polluted areas, but the frequency of trees emitting high ethylene increased. Therefore, threshold rates for the baseline ethylene emission were proposed.