State-specific detection probabilities and disease prevalence.

Investigations of disease dynamics in wild animal populations often use estimated prevalence or incidence as a measure of true disease frequency. Such indices, almost always based solely on raw counts of infected and uninfected individuals, are often used as the basis for analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of diseases. Generally, such studies do not account for potential differences in observer detection probabilities of host individuals stratified by biotic and/or abiotic factors. We demonstrate the potential effects of heterogeneity in state-specific detection probabilities on estimated disease prevalence using mark-recapture data from previous work in a House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum system. In this system, detection probabilities of uninfected finches were generally higher than infected individuals. We show that the magnitude and seasonal pattern of variation in estimated prevalence, corrected for differences in detection probabilities, differed markedly from uncorrected (apparent) prevalence. When the detection probability of uninfected individuals is higher than infected individuals (as in our study), apparent prevalence is negatively biased, and vice versa. In situations where state-specific detection probabilities strongly interact over time, we show that the magnitude and pattern of apparent prevalence can change dramatically; in such cases, observed variations in prevalence may be completely spurious artifacts of variation in detection probability, rather than changes in underlying disease dynamics. Accounting for differential detection probabilities in estimates of disease frequency removes a potentially confounding factor in studies seeking to identify biotic and/or abiotic drivers of disease dynamics. Given that detection probabilities of different groups of individuals are likely to change temporally and spatially in most field studies, our results underscore the importance of estimating and incorporating detection probabilities in estimated disease prevalence (specifically), and more generally, any ecological index used to estimate some parameter of interest. While a mark-recapture approach makes it possible to estimate detection probabilities, it is not always practical, especially at large scales. We discuss several alternative approaches and categorize the assumptions under which analysis of uncorrected prevalence may be acceptable.     

Hazardous waste management and community involvement in Canada: the case of Montreal's rural-urban fringe

The urban fringe is recognized as the arena of many conflicts involving land uses and values. The development and operation of hazardous waste facilities give rise to numerous conflicts and confrontations. An analysis of three cases in Montreal's rural-urban fringe based on a review of articles in the regional press demonstrates the utility of a common conceptual framework based on the awareness cycle which is represented in five phases. The application of the sustainable development concept to the hazardous wastes issue requires adopting approaches emphasizing participation of all the actors and interests involved, right from project design to the closure and dismantling of the facility. The fundamental challenge is that of promoting the excellence of the various stakeholders in terms of the quality of their participation in order to achieve sustainable acceptability of the project, often in a modified form compared to its initial conception.Dr Pierre André is Assistant Professor and Dr Christopher R. Bryant is Full Professor in the Département de Géographie, Université de Montreal. Romain Coté has completed an MSc degree in the Hygiène du milieu et de l'environnement programme at the Université de Montreal.     

Aluminium and Alzheimer's disease: An epidemiological approach

Epidemiological methods have an important role in the investigation of the postulated connection between exposure to aluminium and the development of Alzheimer's disease. We have examined the usefulness of existing data on prevalence and mortality as a resource for studying variations in the rate of the disease with time and geography. Unfortunately, methodological differences between prevalence surveys and errors and biases in mortality data are large. No reliable conclusions can be drawn from these data about geographical differences in rates of dementia in England and Wales nor about time trends in the disease.Aluminium salts are widely used in the UK for the treatment of drinking water. Residual aluminium concentrations vary more than ten fold between different parts of the country. We have estimated diagnostic rates of pre-senile Alzheimer's disease in seven geographical areas and examined the correlation between rates of Alzheimer's disease and water aluminium concentration.     

A Land Cover Change Monitoring Program: Strategy for an International Effort

An international system for monitoring land cover change is needed to support a range of scientific and policy objectives. Although much of the technology and methods are readily available, such a program has yet to be implemented. This paper outlines the rationale, requirements, and strategy for implementing a land cover-monitoring program using satellite remote sensing, field and ground measurements, and models and assessments. The proposed program builds on existing activities throughout the world and is designed to simultaneously meet the needs of the international policy, global change research, and national resource management. Outputs from this program would provide support to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, lead to the development of consistent country-level emission inventories, and address important scientific problems in global change research such as closing the global carbon budget.     

Environmental management of oak wilt disease in central texas

Oak wilt disease, for which there is no known cure, is one of the most destructive tree killers in the United States today. This analysis reports on the patterns of disease transmission, along with the methods of treatment used to suppress the severity of the pathogen's attack on trees in central Texas. The practical problems inherent in the linkage between people and their relationship with this environmental disorder are addressed. The environmental controls implemented have application to other areas of the United States and western Europe, where tree species are subject to infections.     

Work—family conflict: A comparison of dual-career and traditional-career men

This research examines differences in the antecedents and consequences of work—family conflict — a form of interrole conflict that occurs when the demands of work and family are mutually incompatible in some respect — for two groups of career-oriented men: those with a homemaker wife (called traditional-career men) and those with a spouse in a career-oriented job (labelled dual-career men). Using a model built on the work of Kopelman, Greenhaus and Connolly (1983), the responses from 136 dual-career men and 137 traditional-career men were compared. The primary conclusion of this research is that maternal career employment has a significant effect on the antecedents of work — family conflict. Dual-career men appear to experience a significant negative spillover from their work domain. We suggest that this spillover is due to a lack of structural flexibility in the workplace, outdated organizational policies that operate on the myth of separate worlds' and a lack of social support for the male dual-career role which contradicts societal norms.     

Provincial development plans in Zimbabwe: an analysis of their content,structure and methodology

Zimbabwean provincial plans were instituted to help in the achievement of the national goal of the creation of an egalitarian, socialist and integrated society. The national goal itself was adopted as an antithesis to the dualist society characterised by spatial, economic, social, politican and technological inequalities that Zimbabwe inherited from colonialism. This meant that provincial plans had to play both a functional (or growth allocating/distribution) and a territorial (or redistribution) role.

This paper reviews their role in achieving the national goal by examining their functions, content, structure and methodology. The paper concludes that because of their nature, provincial plans are not suitable tools for the achievement of the national goal.     

Time series analysis of elemental and isotopic data from biomineralized whale tissue

A temporal record of environmental conditions is often contained within accretionary biological tissue. These records can provide knowledge of the environmental conditions that existed at the time the tissue was formed. In this study, we look at trace element concentrations and isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen as contained in baleen from bowhead whales in the eastern and western Arctic Ocean. Time series techniques, including maximum likelihood method and likelihood ratio tests, are applied to analysis of data and inference about their mean structures.     

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

Can photoperiod manipulation affect gonad development of a boreo-arctic echinoid (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) following exposure in the wild after the autumnal equinox?

A laboratory experiment was conducted in the winter of 2003–2004 to assess the effect of varying photoperiod regime on consumption rate, assimilation rate, absorption efficiency, and gonad development of the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. Adult individuals were collected from the wild after they had been exposed to the ambient autumn photoperiod cue (which is the extraneous trigger thought to elicit gametogenesis in this species) and placed at ambient temperature for 12 weeks under five different photoperiod regimes: (1) 24 h light:0 h dark=“0D”, (2) 16 h light:8 h dark=“8D”, (3) 8 h light:16 h dark=“16D”, (4) 0 h light:24 h dark=“24D”, and (5) ambient photoperiod (range: 10.50–15.25 h dark). Urchins in these five treatments were fed ad libitum with bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana. A sixth treatment consisted of starved individuals held under 0D conditions. Various gonad factors including gonad index, percent gonad water, gonad colour (CIE lightness or L*, CIE hue or a*, and CIE chroma or b*), percent area occupation of the gonad by various cell types (nutritive phagocytes, spermatozoa, and secondary oocytes/ova), and stage of development were assessed at the beginning of the experiment and at weeks 4, 8, and 12 of the study. Consumption and assimilation rates were assessed at weeks 4 and 12 and absorption efficiency at week 12 of the experiment. Urchins were predominantly in the growing and premature stages at the beginning of the experiment, but by week 4 at least 20% of individuals in all treatments receiving food were classified as mature. Spawning occurred during all these treatments between weeks 4 and 8, as evidenced by significant decreases in spermatozoa and secondary oocytes/ova and a significant decrease in percent gonad water, but was not accompanied by major declines in gonad indices. Greater than 90% of individuals in all five of the fed treatments were in the recovering and growing stages at the end of the experiment. The 16D treatment had by far the greatest percentage of urchins in the growing stage. In contrast, individuals that were starved were predominantly in the mature stage at weeks 4, 8, and 12, with only ~30% reaching the spawning stage by the end of the experiment. Photoperiod significantly affected gonad indices at the termination of the experiment with gonad index being the highest in the 16D treatment; this was significantly greater than in the 8D and ambient treatments. Photoperiod did not significantly affect gonad percent water, gonad lightness, or gonad hue. Gonad chroma was significantly affected by photoperiod, urchins held under ambient conditions having significantly lower b* readings than individuals in any other treatment. Photoperiod had little or no affect on consumption rate, assimilation rate, or absorption efficiency. Thus, differences among treatments in regards to gonad index, gonad chroma, and stage of development cannot be attributed to variations in feeding, absorption, or assimilation. The results of this experiment indicate that once gametogenesis is initiated, photoperiod manipulation cannot prevent ultimate spawning. However, photoperiod regime can affect the rate at which urchins move through the various stages of the gametogenic cycle. Urchins placed on short days under artificial lighting (16D) moved through the spawning stage into recovering and growing stages the fastest. This photoperiod regime also produced the highest gonad index at the end of the experiment. Since the commercial urchin market prefers large gonads in the growing and premature stages (i.e. before the mature stage is reached and gonads start leaking sperm and eggs), short day-lengths under artificial lighting (16D) appear to be the best photoperiod conditions for optimizing marketability.