Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from households in Nigeria

Efforts to mitigate climate threats should not exclude the household as the household is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through its consumption patterns. This paper derives an emission index that could be used to estimate inventories of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from kerosene combustion for lighting in Nigeria and also looks at the implications of solar pv lighting replacing kerosene lamp in Nigeria. Findings indicate that (1) average CO₂ emissions from kerosene combustion for lighting in Nigeria is about 0.06 kg per hour per lamp, which can be taken as the kerosene lamp CO₂ emission index for Nigeria. (2) about 3 × 10W_p solar pv will be required to replace a kerosene lamp, while about 0.124 tonnes of CO₂ will be avoided per lamp per year, operating at 6 h daily. At the national level, under the kerosene lamp replacement projection assumptions made, between 0.4 and 1.0 million tonnes of CO₂ will be avoided per year. The household investment required to owe a solar pv, including the capital cost of switching from kerosene lamp, is about US356, while the national capital investment outlay is between 1,138.265 and US356, while the national capital investment outlay is between 1,138.265 and US2,848 million. (3) Certified Emission Reduction (CER) units, assuming CO₂ is traded, will generate significant annual revenues on the order of 6.96 to almost US17.4 million per year, while earnings from unspent household kerosene fuel could amount to between 2,520 and US17.4 million per year, while earnings from unspent household kerosene fuel could amount to between 2,520 and US6,300 million over the life span of the solar pv. The micro-economic assessment carried out indicates the non-attractiveness of solar pv use at the household level, and (4) to promote solar pv use, both long and short term policy measures that aim at cost reduction were suggested. The paper concludes that, factoring the suggested measures into the climate, energy, and financial policy decision discourse in Nigeria could empower the households to play a significant role in achieving global CO₂ emission reduction, but at the local level.     

Modeling and interpretation of fiber orientation-based failure mechanisms in machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites

The development and implementation of a microstructure-based finite element model for the machining of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites is presented. A new approach to interfacial modeling is introduced where the material interface is modeled using continuum elements, allowing failure to take place in either tension or compression. The model is capable of describing the fiber failure mode occurring throughout the chip formation process. Characteristic fiber length in the chips, and machining forces for microstructures with fibers orientated at 0°, 45°, 90°, and 135° are examined. For model validation purposes, the model-based machining performance predictions are compared to the machining responses from a set of orthogonal machining experiments. A parametric study is presented that identifies a robust tool geometry, which minimizes the effects of fiber orientation and size on the machining forces.     

The theory of planned behavior as mediator of the effect of parental supervision: a study of intentions to violate driving rules in a representative sample of adolescents

INTRODUCTION: The study reported here was designed to test the ability of the theory of planned behavior to mediate the effect of parental supervision on adolescents' intentions to violate driving rules. METHOD: A representative sample of 1,654 adolescents completed questionnaires during individual and anonymous interviews carried out at their schools. RESULTS: Results showed that age, gender, prior risky driving-behavior, and parental supervision significantly predict intentions to violate driving rules. Attitude and the subjective norm partially mediate the effect of age, prior behavior, and parental supervision. Perceived behavioral control does not predict intention and is not predicted by other variables. IMPACT: The results suggest that social cognitive variables partially mediate the effect of parenting practices such as supervision.     

Evidence for a male-produced pheromone in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium fuscum</Emphasis> (F.) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetropium cinnamopterum</Emphasis> (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

(E)-6,10-dimethyl-5,9-undecadien-2-ol (geranyl acetol), termed here fuscol, was identified as a male-produced pheromone emitted by Tetropium fuscum (F.) and Tetropium cinnamopterum Kirby. In field experiments, traps baited with synthetic fuscol alone were not significantly attractive, but the combination of fuscol plus host volatiles (a synthetic blend of monoterpenes plus ethanol) attracted significantly more male and female T. fuscum and female T. cinnamopterum than did host volatiles alone. This is the first homoterpenoid alcohol to be described in the Cerambycidae, and the first pheromone reported from the sub-family Spondylidinae.     

Artiodactyls from the Pondaung Formation (Myanmar): new data and reevaluation of the South Asian Faunal Province during the Middle Eocene

Although Asia is thought to have played a critical role in the radiation of artiodactyls, the fossil record of stem selenodonts (“dichobunoids”) remains dramatically poor in tropical Asian regions. In this study, we report a new dichobunid genus and species Cadutherium kyaukmagyii and a new basal ruminant genus and species Irrawadymeryx pondaungi, from the late Middle Eocene Pondaung Formation, Central Myanmar. Although the scarcity of the present material prevents any attempts to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Cadutherium with contemporaneous forms from other Holarctic landmasses, this new form shed new light on the diversity of these small rabbit-like ungulates during a key period of their evolutionary history. Reexamination of the small-bodied artiodactyls from Pondaung leads us to propose new identifications of certain published specimens and, in turn, to investigate the temporal and geographic distribution of taxa recognized in the Pondaung Formation. Although fragmentary, these potential new taxa reveal an unsuspected diversity of small forms among artiodactyls of Pondaung. This addition to the Eocene record of dichobunoids and early ruminants provides further insight in the diversity of dental patterns among small artiodactyls from the Pondaung Formation and attests to the antiquity of these groups in Southeast Asia.     

Sperm bundle and reproductive organs of carabid beetles tribe Pterostichini (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

The morphological characteristics of sperm and reproductive organs may offer clues as to how reproductive systems have evolved. In this paper, the morphologies of the sperm and male reproductive organs of carabid beetles in the tribe Pterostichini (Coleoptera: Carabidae) are described, and the morphological associations among characters are examined. All species form sperm bundles in which the head of the sperm was embedded in a rod-shaped structure, i.e., spermatodesm. The spermatodesm shape (left-handed spiral, right-handed spiral, or without conspicuous spiral structure) and the condition of the sperm on the spermatodesm surface (with the tail free-moving or forming a thin, sheetlike structure) vary among species. In all species, the spiral directions of the convoluted seminal vesicles and vasa deferentia are the same on both sides of the body; that is, they show an asymmetric structure. The species in which the sperm bundle and the seminal vesicles both have a spiral structure could be classified into two types, with significant differences in sperm-bundle length between the two types. The species with a sperm-bundle spiral and seminal-vesicle spiral of almost the same diameter have longer sperm bundles than the species with a sperm-bundle spiral and seminal-vesicle tube of almost the same diameter. In the former type, the spiral directions of the sperm bundles and seminal vesicles are inevitably the same, whereas they differ in some species with the later type. Therefore, increased sperm bundle length appears to have been facilitated by the concordance of the sperm bundle’s coiling direction with the coiling direction of the seminal vesicle.     

Soil and preen waxes influence the expression of carotenoid-based plumage coloration

The signaling function of carotenoid-based plumage is mainly determined by the concentration of pigments in feathers. For this reason, most studies of the proximate control of coloration focus on processes during and preceding moult. In great tits Parus major, past research demonstrates that carotenoid-based plumage coloration honestly indicates male quality and, thus, may be a sexually selected signal. In this study, we investigate how dirt and preen oil influence the coloration of carotenoid-based feathers in the great tit. We collected six feathers from each individual bird; three feathers served as controls while the remaining three feathers were washed with a chloroform/methanol mixture to remove soil and preen waxes. We assessed plumage coloration using digital photography. This cleaning procedure slightly enhanced ornamentation; the experimentally cleaned feathers expressed hues shifted towards shorter wavelengths and expressed brighter overall coloration than control feathers. This is the first experimental study conducted on wild birds demonstrating that, in addition to pigment concentration, the presence of preen waxes and soils on feathers may contribute to variation in coloration.     

Daytime light intensity affects seasonal timing via changes in the nocturnal melatonin levels

Daytime light intensity can affect the photoperiodic regulation of the reproductive cycle in birds. The actual way by which light intensity information is transduced is, however, unknown. We postulate that transduction of the light intensity information is mediated by changes in the pattern of melatonin secretion. This study, therefore, investigated the effects of high and low daytime light intensities on the daily melatonin rhythm of Afro-tropical stonechats (Saxicola torquata axillaris) in which seasonal changes in daytime light intensity act as a zeitgeber of the circannual rhythms controlling annual reproduction and molt. Stonechats were subjected to light conditions simulated as closely as possible to native conditions near the equator. Photoperiod was held constant at 12.25 h of light and 11.75 h of darkness per day. At intervals of 2.5 to 3.5 weeks, daytime light intensity was changed from bright (12,000 lux at one and 2,000 lux at the other perch) to dim (1,600 lux at one and 250 lux at the other perch) and back to the original bright light. Daily plasma melatonin profiles showed that they were linked with changes in daytime light intensity: Nighttime peak and total nocturnal levels were altered when transitions between light conditions were made, and these changes were significant when light intensity was changed from dim to bright. We suggest that daytime light intensity could affect seasonal timing via changes in melatonin profiles. Professor Dr. E. Gwinner died on 07 September 2004.     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.