Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

A multi-agent simulation model for spatial optimisation of manure allocation

The EU Nitrate Directive has spurred many countries to regulate manure production and manure application. Farmers have three allocation options: spreading manure on their own land, transporting manure to other farmers' land or processing manure. The manure problem can be seen as an allocation problem. To better understand this allocation problem, we have developed the spatial mathematical programming multi-agent simulation (MP-MAS) model. This model has been applied in Flanders, Belgium, a region with a high concentration of livestock. The model evaluates the cost efficiency of policy intervention in the manure market through obliged processing. We propose to further optimise the policy using a regionally differentiated manure pressure indicator, which is directly derived from the dual outcome of the mathematical programme. This indicator increases transparency in the manure and processing market, leading to better decision support about location and type of manure processing.     

Information system for monitoring environmental impacts of genetically modified organisms

Background, aim and scope  

European legislation stipulates that genetically modified organisms (GMO) have to be monitored to identify potential adverse environmental effects. A wealth of different types of monitoring data from various sources including existing environmental monitoring programmes is expected to accumulate. This requires an information system to efficiently structure, process and evaluate the monitoring data.     

Effects of acetaminophen in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica juncea</Emphasis> L. Czern.: investigation of uptake,translocation, detoxification,and the induced defense pathways

Purpose  

Besides classical organic pollutants and pesticides, pharmaceuticals and their residues have nowadays become recognized as relevant environmental contaminants. The risks of these chemicals for aquatic ecosystems are well known, but information about the pharmaca-plant interactions and metabolic pathways is scarce. Therefore, we investigate the process of uptake of acetaminophen (N-Acetyl-4-aminophenol) by Brassica juncea, drug-induced defense responses and detoxification mechanisms in different plant parts.     

The influence of sampling protocol on nonmethane hydrocarbon mixing ratios

The effect of sampling protocol on ambient air hydrocarbon mixing ratios was examined on eight sampling days in Los Angeles during 2007 and 2008. Four protocols, which were based on previously published multi-city urban hydrocarbon studies in the United States, were compared and differences were quantified. Whole air canister samples were collected and analyzed for nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Differing sampling protocols resulted in large differences in mixing ratios, up to an order of magnitude, for certain NMHCs on the same sampling day. However, the magnitude of the variability between NMHC levels obtained by the four protocols was not consistent throughout the eight sampling days. It was found that sampling time, followed by sampling location, had the greatest influence on the magnitude of the mixing ratio. Ratios between hydrocarbons, often used in urban studies to gain information on emission sources, also varied depending on the protocol used. Comparison of absolute NMHC mixing ratios collected in urban environments using differing sampling protocols should be made with care.     

Effects of soil properties on food web accumulation of heavy metals to the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus)

Effects of soil properties on the accumulation of metals to wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) were evaluated at two sites with different pH and organic matter content of the soil. pH and organic matter content significantly affected accumulation of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in earthworms and vegetation. For Cd, Cu and Zn these effects propagated through the food web to the wood mouse. Soil-to-kidney ratios differed between sites: Cd: 0.15 versus 3.52, Cu: 0.37 versus 1.30 and Zn: 0.33-0.83. This was confirmed in model calculations for Cd and Zn. Results indicate that total soil concentrations may be unsuitable indicators for risks that metals pose to wildlife. Furthermore, environmental managers may, unintentionally, change soil properties while taking specific environmental measures. In this way they may affect risks of metals to wildlife, even without changes in total soil concentrations.     

Evaluation of Selected Gaseous Halocarbons for Use in source Test Performance Audits

A repository of 38 gaseous organic compounds in compressed gas cylinders has been established by EPA. This repository was established to provide standards for source test performance audits, that is, quantitative quality assurance tests. Among these compounds are ten halogenated organic species, which are the focus of this paper.

Stability studies of all ten compounds have been performed to determine the feasibility of using them as performance audit standards. Results indicate that all of the halocarbons tested are adequately stable to be used as reliable audit standards.

Subsequent to completion of stability studies, four of the ten halocarbons were used in source test performance audits. Results are available at this time for two of the four compounds; the results show agreement within 10% of the concentrations previously established by Research Triangle Institute.     

The Cost Estimation of Thermal and Catalytic Incinerators for the Control of VOCs

In an earlier paper, major commercially available incinerator technologies designed to treat dilute waste gas streams containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were described in a qualitative comparison. In addition, a simplified procedure was outlined through which important sizing parameters could be calculated given certain information about the waste gas. This paper describes the use of these parameters in developing a study (±30percent) cost estimate for the total capital investment and the total annual costs incurred in treating a waste stream of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). An illustrative problem used in the former paper is completed here in order to contrast some of the economic differences between thermal and catalytic incinerator systems.