Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Minute theropod eggs and embryo from the Lower Cretaceous of Thailand and the dinosaur-bird transition

We report on very small fossil eggs from the Lower Cretaceous of Thailand, one of them containing a theropod embryo, which display a remarkable mosaic of characters. While the surficial ornamentation is typical of non-avian saurischian dinosaurs, the three-layered prismatic structure of the eggshell is currently known only in extant and fossil eggs associated with birds. These eggs, about the size of a goldfinch's, mirror at the reproductive level the retention of small body size that was paramount in the transition from non-avian theropods to birds. The egg-layer may have been a small feathered theropod similar to those recently found in China.     

Biosynthetic studies on marking pheromones of bumblebee males

Summary. The biosynthetic pathway of the formation of males'marking pheromones of two bumblebee species, Bombus lucorum and B.lapidarius, was studied for the first time. After applications ofdeuterium labelled palmitic acid ([2H31]-hexadecanoic acid) into eitherthe head capsules or abdomens the corresponding deuterium labelledpheromone components were detected in the labial gland (LG) extracts ofmales of both species. In B. lucorum, ethyl [2H29]-hexadec-9-enoate andethyl [2H31]-hexadecanoate were identified. No deuterium-labelled ethyltetradecenoate, that would correspond to shortening of the carbon chain,was detected. In B. B. lapidarius, [2H31]-hexadecan-1-ol and[2H29]-hexadec-9-en-1-ol were found in the LG. Furthermore, thedeuterium labelled precursor was incorporated into triacylglycerols(TAG) of the fat bodies of males. In vitro incubation of the labialglands of B. lucorum males with deuterium-and 13C-labelled palmiticacid lead to the formation of saturated ethyl esters only.