反馈环断裂下的安全知识积累与扩散仿真研究

为了研究个体死亡引发反馈环断裂对安全知识积累和扩散的影响，采用元胞自动机方法，构建了多层次、多状态、多行为的安全知识积累和扩散演化模型。然后运用交替变量控制法进行仿真实验，获取605组数据，并对所得数据进行层次回归分析。研究结果表明:个体死亡会阻碍安全知识积累且会加剧个体间知识差异，同时事故率的增加会提高知识积累机会和个体死亡机会，产生复杂的双向对冲效应；替代者知识水平能够对安全知识积累和扩散产生较大的正向影响，并能削弱个体死亡的负向影响；事故见证者的增加也能够产生一定的正向影响。据此提出“数量型死亡悖论”，并指出促进安全知识积累和扩散的重点方向。     

Complementarity of No‐Take Marine Reserves and Individual Transferable Catch Quotas for Managing the Line Fishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.     

Wavelet characterization of eucalypt flowering and the influence of climate

More robust statistical methods are required for examining phenological time series as they are often noisy and non-stationary. Wavelet analytic methods easily handle such data. A maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) analysis of flowering records (1940–1970) of Eucalyptus tricarpa, E. leucoxylon, E. microcarpa and E. polyanthemos identified four subcomponents in each flowering series: characterized as a non-flowering phase, duration, annual and intensity cycles. A decreasing overall trend in flowering was identified by the MODWT smoothed series. Wavelet correlation found the same contemporaneous effects of climate on flowering for Eucalyptus tricarpa and E. leucoxylon, and for E. microcarpa and E. polyanthemos. Wavelet cross-correlation analysis identified the cyclical influence of temperature and rainfall on peak flowering intensity (P < 0.0001). For each species there are 6 months of the annual cycle in which any given climate variable positively influences flowering intensity and 6 months of negative influence. For all species, rainfall exerts a negative influence when temperature is positive.     

An ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation: Application to wind tunnel data

In the previous work (Zheng et al., 2007, Zheng et al., 2009), a data assimilation method, based on ensemble Kalman filter, has been applied to a Monte Carlo Dispersion Model (MCDM). The results were encouraging when the method was tested by the twin experiment and a short-range field experiment. In this technical note, the measured data collected in a wind tunnel experiment have been assimilated into the Monte Carlo dispersion model. The uncertain parameters in the dispersion model, including source term, release height, turbulence intensity and wind direction have been considered. The 3D parameters, i.e. the turbulence intensity and wind direction, have been perturbed by 3D random fields. In order to find the factors which may influence the assimilation results, eight tests with different specifications were carried out. Two strategies of constructing the 3D perturbation field of wind direction were proposed, and the result shows that the two level strategy performs better than the one level strategy. It is also found that proper standard deviation and the correlation radius of the perturbation field play an important role for the data assimilation results.     

Simulating PM concentration during a winter episode in a subtropical valley: Sensitivity simulations and evaluation methods

We investigated a two-week episode with high PM concentrations in California Central Valley during the Christmas–New Year of 2000–2001 using a modeling system that consists of a computationally efficient, 3-D photochemical–microphysical transport model, a mesoscale meteorological model, emission models, and an evaluation package. One hundred simulations were conducted with fine resolutions and observational constraints, to reproduce spatial and temporal features of observed PM concentrations and to understand the formation mechanism of the episode. Simulated PM concentrations consist of secondary inorganic components, mainly ammonium nitrate, and total carbon in areas with elevated concentrations in the accumulation mode, and consist of mainly dust and sea salt in the coarse mode. Simulated oxidants and nitrate were significantly elevated over the valley, and the latter showed much less amplitude than the former. Simulated PM concentrations were evaluated with observations systematically with spatially and temporally paired method, a more restrictive multivariate method (NMFROC), and a more flexible “gradient evaluation” method. The paired evaluation shows that high correlation coefficient (R = ～0.8) and low fractional error (FE = ～0.1) could be achieved at stations with elevated 24-h concentration of PM in the accumulation mode in some simulations. The NMFROC method was used to extract useful information from seemingly failed simulations. A “gradient evaluation” method is introduced here to extract additional information from simulations. We found that emission reductions of NO_x and AVOC showed similar effects on percentage basis in different areas, and both are more effective than reducing NH₃ for abating elevated concentrations of accumulation mode PM in California Central Valley during the winter episode.     

不同耕作方式对稻田净增温潜势和温室气体强度的影响

免耕技术近年来在南方稻区被广泛推广应用,但该项技术是否有利于减缓稻田综合温室效应目前并不清楚.因此,本文以双季稻-紫云英为研究对象,利用静态箱-气相色谱法分别研究不同耕作方式对稻田CH4和N2O排放、双季稻产量、土壤固碳、稻田净综合增温潜势(GWP)和温室气体强度(GHGI)的影响.试验处理包括常规翻耕(CT)、旋耕(RT)和免耕(NT).结果表明,稻田周年CH4累积排放量为233.5~404.0kg·hm-2·a-1,NT和RT处理分别比CT增加73.1%和35.1%.晚稻生长季CH4排放量占周年CH4排放量的53.7%~66.5%,其中,晚稻移栽至烤田期间CH4累积排放通量占晚稻季排放总量的77.0%~81.3%.稻田N2O累积排放量为4.00~4.82 kg·hm-2·a-1(以N计),但各处理之间没有显著差异.稻田年固碳量为0.36~1.31 t·hm-2·a-1(以C计),其中,NT处理比CT和RT处理分别增加148.4%和261.0%.双季稻周年产量为15.2~17.1 t·hm-2,耕作方式对产量没有显著影响.稻田净GWP为5095.4~7788 kg·hm-2(以CO2当量计),其中,RT和NT处理分别比CT增加52.8%和32.2%.稻田GHGI为0.30~0.46 kg·kg-1(以每kg粮食产量产生的CO2当量计),其中,RT和NT处理分别显著高于CT处理50.1%和45.3%.综上所述,免耕在短期内会增加稻田温室效应,但可以促进土壤固碳量的显著增加,因此,其固碳减排的长期效应还有待观测.     

辽宁省渔业产业结构调整及其优化研究

加快渔业产业结构调整、刺激渔业经济增长,是辽宁省渔业经济发展的现实需要。从2000—2012年的经济数据分析来看,辽宁省渔业产业结构现状是支柱产业稳定、主导产业发展潜力小、潜导产业向主导产业转移。采用Gompertz曲线预测,得出2015年辽宁省渔业经济总产值年均增长速度为9.5%,与农业部发布的《全国渔业发展"十二五"规划》中2015年渔业经济总产值年均增速10.2%的发展目标存在一定的差距,以此为基础提出辽宁省渔业产业结构优化的具体路径选择。     

青藏高原内陆典型冰川区"冰川-径流"汞传输过程

为研究青藏高原内陆典型冰川区"冰川-径流"汞输送过程,于2011年8月15日~9月9日对青藏高原内陆念青唐古拉山脉扎当冰川-曲嘎切流域内雪坑、冰川融水以及径流进行了采样,检测了不同环境介质中汞浓度,并分析了不同介质中汞的控制因素及输送过程.结果表明,扎当冰川-曲嘎切流域内雪坑、冰川融水以及曲嘎切径流中总汞浓度分别为(3.79±5.12)、(1.06±0.77)和(1.02±0.24)ng·L-1,处于全球背景水平.不同环境介质中均以颗粒态汞为主,受到总悬浮颗粒物和径流量的控制.随着气温升高,冰川消融,受其补给的河流径流量增加.不同环境介质间,从冰川末端融水到曲嘎切下游河水,总汞浓度峰值时间分别是14:00、16:00和20:00以后,体现了汞在"冰川-径流"环境系统中随冰川消融、径流量变化的释放和传输过程.冰川补给河流汞的传输受多种因素制约,气候变化背景下,冰川消融和径流增加带来的侵蚀将在汞释放及其向下游传输发挥日益重要的作用.