Forecasts using neural network versus Box-Jenkins methodology for ambient air quality monitoring data

This study explores ambient air quality forecasts using the conventional time-series approach and a neural network. Sulfur dioxide and ozone monitoring data collected from two background stations and an industrial station are used. Various learning methods and varied numbers of hidden layer processing units of the neural network model are tested. Results obtained from the time-series and neural network models are discussed and compared on the basis of their performance for 1-step-ahead and 24-step-ahead forecasts. Although both models perform well for 1-step-ahead prediction, some neural network results reveal a slightly better forecast without manually adjusting model parameters, according to the results. For a 24-step-ahead forecast, most neural network results are as good as or superior to those of the time-series model. With the advantages of self-learning, self-adaptation, and parallel processing, the neural network approach is a promising technique for developing an automated short-term ambient air quality forecast system.     

Evaluation of TCDD biodegradability under different redox conditions

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins have been generated as unwanted by-products in many industrial processes. Although their widespread distribution in different environmental compartments has been recognized, little is known about their fate in the ultimate environment sinks. The highly stable dioxin isomer 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) has been called the most toxic compound known to man. In this laboratory microcosm study, TCDD bioavailability was evaluated under five reduction/oxidation (redox) conditions including aerobic biodegradation, aerobic cometabolism, methanogenesis, iron reduction, and reductive dechlorination. Activated sludge and aquifer sediments from a TCDD and a pentachlorophenol (PCP) contaminated site were used as the inocula. Acetate, sludge cake, and cane molasses were used as the primary substrates (carbon sources) in cometabolism and reductive dechlorination microcosms. After a 90-day incubation period, microcosms constructed under reductive dechlorination conditions were the only treatment showing promising remediation results. The highest TCDD degradation rate [up to 86% of TCDD removal (with an initial concentration of 96 microg/kg of soil)] was observed in the microcosms with anaerobic activated sludge as the microbial inocula and sludge cakes as the primary substrates. Except for reductive dechlorination microcosms, no significant TCDD removal was observed in the microcosms prepared under other conditions. Thus, application of an effective primary substrate to enhance the reductive dechlorination process is a feasible method for TCDD bioremediation. Bioremediation expense can be significantly reduced by the supplement of some less expensive alternative substrates (e.g., sludge cakes, cane molasses). Results would be useful in designing a scale-up in situ or on-site bioremediation system such as bioslurry reactor for field application.     

Airshed Model Evaluation of Reactivity Adjustment Factors Calculated with the Maximum Incremental Reactivity Scale for Transitional-Low Emission Vehicles

Abstract

The California Air Resources Board recently adopted regulations for light- and medium-duty vehicles that require reductions in the ozone-forming potential or “reactivity,” rather than the mass, of nonmethane organic gas (NMOG) emissions. The regulations allow sale of all alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs) that meet NMOG exhaust emission standards equivalent in reactivity to those set for vehicles fueled with conventional gasoline. Reactivity adjustment factors (RAFs), the ratio of the reactivity (per gram) of the AFV exhaust to that of the conventionally fueled vehicle (CFV), are used to correct the stringent exhaust emission standards. Complete chemical speciation of the exhaust and conversion of each NMOG species to an appropriate mass of ozone using the maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) scale of Carter determines the RAF. The MIR approach defines reactivity where NMOG control is the most effective strategy in reducing ozone concentrations, and assumes it is not important to define reactivity at other conditions, i.e., where NO_x is the limiting precursor.

This study used the Carnegie/California Institute of Technology airshed model to evaluate whether the RAF-adjusted AFV emissions result in ozone impacts equivalent to those of CFV emissions. A matrix of two ozone episodes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California, two base emission inventories, and exhaust emissions from three alternative fuels that meet the first level of the low emission vehicle standards bounds the expected range of conditions. Although very good agreement was found previously for individual NMOG species,² this study noted deviations of up to ±15 percent from the equal ozone impacts for any vehicle/fuel combination required by the California regulations. These deviations appear to be attributable to differences in spatial and temporal patterns of emissions between vehicle fleets, rather than a problem with the MIR approach. The first formally adopted RAF, a value of 0.41 for 85 percent methanol/15 percent gasoline-fueled vehicles, includes a 10 percent increase based on the airshed modeling. The correction to the RAF is different for other fuels and may be different for air basins other than the SoCAB.     

石化企业的消防安全评价

本以“石油化工企业设计防火规范”等消防规范和德尔菲专家调查法为基础，尝试进行石化企业内自然厂的消防安全评价。评价中，固定消防设施部分以各生产装置和储运设施为单元，各装置、设施的权重在道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数法的基础上确定；移动消防力量部分和消防管理部分以厂为单元，各指标的权重由层次分析法确定。对于各指标的评价打分，本暂不给出明确的分级标准，而是在各项指标下设置若干检查要点，专家根据实际情况与相关法规条的符合程度进行打分。最终采用线性加权模型得出评价结果，并根据各指标的整改效果排序确定整改的重点。     

Evaluating the Management Effectiveness of Five Protected Areas in Taiwan Using WWF’s RAPPAM

This study adopts and modifies the WWF Rapid assessment and prioritization of protected areas management methodology (RAPPAM) to evaluate the management effectiveness of five protected areas in Taiwan. The results indicate that, unlike the situation in most developing countries, the threats and pressures faced by protected areas in Taiwan come mainly from the outside-with pollution as the most common pressure and threat, and difficult for their management authorities to deal with effectively. The categories and extent of these pressures and threats are related to remoteness and geographic location of the protected areas. All five cases under study reveal a similar management approach, clear management goals, adequate basic infrastructure and clear management decision-making; on the down side, however, all of them suffer from the lack of an effective comprehensive management plan, inadequate or poor quality human resources and insufficient funding. The present study suggests that first priority should be given to strengthening management planning in order to improve management effectiveness of protected areas in Taiwan. The adjustment made to RAPPAM in this study was to amend and take the format of the management plan as the basis for evaluation material preparations and open the discussion to encourage stakeholders' participation to open the dialogue among them. The results indicate that, although the system evaluation design still has some constraints, the quality of information collected is improved and can respond more directly to the specific demands of the respective areas.     

Optimization models for siting water quality monitoring stations in a catchment

A water quality monitoring network (WQMN) must be designed so as to adequately protect the water quality in a catchment. Although a simulated annealing (SA) method was previously applied to design a WQMN, the SA method cannot ensure the solution it obtained is the global optimum. Therefore, two new linear optimization models are proposed in this study to minimize the deviation of the cost values expected to identify the possible pollution sources based on uniform cost (UC) and coverage elimination uniform cost (CEUC) schemes. The UC model determines the expected cost values by considering each sub-catchment being covered by which station, while the CEUC model determines the coverage of each station by eliminating the area covered by any upstream station. The proposed models are applied to the Derchi reservoir catchment in Taiwan. Results show that the global optimal WQMN can be effectively determined by using the UC or CEUC model, for which both results are better than those from the SA method, especially when the number of stations becomes large.     

Pollution and variation of stream nitrate in a protected high-mountain watershed of Central Taiwan: evidence from nitrate concentration and nitrogen and oxygen isotope compositions

This study analyzed the concentration and stable nitrogen (δ(15)N) and oxygen (δ(18)O) isotopic compositions of water NO (3) (-) , as well as NO (3) (-) concentration and δ(15)N values of soils and manure-sourced fertilizers to assess pollution and variation in stream nitrate at the watershed of the Chi-Chia-Wan Stream (CCWS), a protected high-mountain stream in Central Taiwan. Results indicate a gully (G1) that contributes significantly high NO (3) (-) concentration water (up to 122 mg/L) to trunk water as the major pollution source of CCWS. The high NO (3) (-) concentration gully water has a close relationship with manure-sourced fertilizer with both having compatible enriched δ(15)N values. Results also indicate that water mixing over isotopic fractionation processes such as denitrification or assimilation is the major process accounting for variations in concentrations and isotopic values for stream NO (3) (-) . Incorporation of gully/tributary water of high NO (3) (-) concentration increases both the concentration and isotopic values of trunk water and vice versa for the incorporation of low NO (3) (-) concentration tributary water. Despite G1 contributing high NO (3) (-) concentration water to the trunk water of CCWS, the concentration of the trunk water is only slightly elevated and is still lower than the required water quality standard due to much lower drainage of the gully water compared to trunk water's runoff. In addition to gully or tributary water and rainwater, NO (3) (-) derived from soil is another important contributor to trunk water. The NO (3) (-) contribution of soil to trunk water is greater in summer than in winter. Additionally, NO (3) (-) concentrations in soil from ex-cultivated land are significantly lower than that in cultivated land. This means that NO (3) (-) contribution from ex-cultivated land soil to trunk water is small and demonstrates that the land-recovery plan that has been underway in the studied watershed for sometime is effective.     

Potential assessment of establishing a renewable energy plant in a rural agricultural area

An evaluation of the green energy potential generated from biogas and solar power, using agricultural manure waste and a photovoltaic (PV) system, was conducted in a large geographical area of a rural county with low population density and low pollution. The studied area, Shoufeng Township in Hualien County, is located in eastern Taiwan, where a large amount of manure waste is generated from pig farms that are scattered throughout the county. The objective of the study is to assess the possibility of establishing an integrated manure waste treatment plant by using the generated biogas incorporated with the PV system to produce renewable energy and then feed it back to the incorporated farms. A filed investigation, geographic information system (GIS) application, empirical equations development, and RETScreen modeling were conducted in the study. The results indicate that Shoufeng Township has the highest priority in setting up an integrated treatment and renewable energy plant by using GIS mapping within a 10-km radius of the transportation range. Two scenarios were plotted in assessing the renewable energy plant and the estimated electricity generation, plus the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction was evaluated. Under the current governmental green energy scheme and from a long-term perspective, the assessment shows great potential in establishing the plant, especially in reducing environmental pollution problems, waste treatment, and developing suitable renewable energy.